2019 Football Draft Kit: Breakout Players
2019 Football Draft Kit: Breakout Players

This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.

Some use the term "breakout," while others prefer "sleeper" or simply "undervalued." Whatever the terminology, we're all looking for the same thing: players who will establish a new level of fantasy value, surpassing both their previous production and their 2019 draft/auction cost.

The second part is where things get tricky, as the proliferation of fantasy football content makes it easier and easier each year to stay informed without a major time commitment. Come draft day, even the chump in your league might be ready to use a top-50 pick on Chris Godwin or D.J. Moore — this probably wouldn't have been the case 10 year ago.

A "buzzy" player's average draft position (ADP) might even reach a point that implies his breakout is a sure bet, but most of the time this isn't true. There is generally some level of hesitation to draft the next big thing over a proven commodity, even when the former comes with a much higher ceiling than the latter. Look no further than George Kittle or Marlon Mack for recent examples from 2018. Both had plenty of hype last summer — including in this very space — yet still managed to provide an excellent return on investment for their owners. As great as it feels to find breakout candidates flying under the radar, if they aren't getting much attention from the fantasy community it's usually because the upside scenario is a low-probability proposition.

Pulling a late-round rabbit out of the hat is far more difficult

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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