Payne's Perspective: Reviewing Super Bowl LIV

I've had a couple days to process the Super Bowl and thought I'd share some thoughts on it and review some of my prop bets. Here's my reaction to the game, which I thought was thoroughly entertaining. 

• I more or less "kissed my sister" when it came to the gambling side of the game. The Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards was arguably the best backdoor cover of all time. But I lost my Mecole Hardman prop of over 22.5 receiving yards. I liked the under 54 points but also liked the 49ers. I bet that Travis Kelce would be an anytime scorer but also did the same with George Kittle. Starting to get the trend here? Even worse, I had a good feeling about Kyle Juszczyk scoring a touchdown and decided to throw $10 on him scoring the first touchdown of the game at 45:1. Of course he scored the second touchdown of the game.

• It's hard to figure out where the blame goes on the 49ers side. Kyle Shanahan definitely could have called a better game and should shoulder most of the responsibility. I understand not calling a timeout with 1:47 in the first half with the fear of going three-and-out and giving the ball back to Mahomes and company with more than a minute left on the clock. However, to let it run down as far as they did and be satisfied going into halftime tied is inexcusable. For the record, I thought the offensive pass interference called on the long completion to George Kittle was ticky-tack. The NFL in New York confirmed after the game it was the right call; but then how wasn't Kyle Rudolph flagged for it on his game-winning touchdown? I also thought the play-calling was off:

Ed Werder of ESPN confirmed what I suspected: with the lead the 49ers ran 14 plays and nine were dropback passes by Jimmy Garoppolo. What makes this more egregious is that in the second half defenses are typically worn down by the run and give up bigger plays as a result. Where were the Deebo Samuel reverses in the second half that had been so successful early in the game? Had the 49ers stuck with the running game in the second half this could have been a very different result.

• Jimmy G deserves some of the blame for this loss as well. He threw an ill-advised pass in the first half and missed a wide open Emmanuel Sanders with less than two minutes left for a sure touchdown. I'll never understand on fouth down how a quarterback doesn't get off a pass, even if it's just a deep throw up in the air. Playing for Shanahan and his play-action system puts Garoppolo in plus situations where the quarterback has softer coverages and more time to throw. That said, I think the "Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo" narrative is silly. Brady is clearly on the decline, and it's tough to imagine getting more than one more decent season out of him. It's better to take a chance that Garoppolo can be the franchise quarterback for the next eight-plus years than hope for one more good season from Brady.
• I'll never understand the usage of Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. Coleman, in all likelihood, wasn't 100 percent healthy coming off an injury and Mostert was coming off a 220-yard rushing game where he averaged 7.6 yards per carry. In fact, Mostert didn't touch the football until there was 9:26 left in the second quarter. Remember that Mostert had only 5.6 YPC during the regular season while Coleman had 4.0 YPC.
• Like many, I thought Damien Williams got robbed of the MVP award. I haven't gone back and looked, but has a quarterback other than Mahomes thrown two interceptions and still won the MVP? (Editor's note: it's happened twice before. Scroll down for answer.) As one of my Twitter followers said, Mahomes better take Williams to Disney World with him. If you're LeSean McCoy, do you feel like you earned a Super Bowl ring? Was being part of the process good enough? I found it odd that Darwin Thompson was given goal-line carries when Shady could have easily filled the same role.
• Based on the end of the season and playoffs, how are we ranking Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf next season? I think that's the order I'll have them, but they're pretty close. Crazy thing is, there's a strong argument that this year's NFL draft class has much more talent than last year's, even with the strong performances from those three.
• Turning to next season, here are the odds to win Super Bowl LV (via Caesars Sportsbook):

Chiefs 6-1
Ravens 7-1
49ers 8-1
Saints 11-1
Patriots 14-1
Steelers 15-1
Packers 18-1
Cowboys 18-1
Seahawks 22-1
Eagles 25-1
Rams 25-1
Browns 25-1
Vikings 25-1
Chargers 30-1
Raiders 30-1
Texans 30-1
Titans 30-1
Bills 30-1
Bears 30-1
Colts 35-1
Falcons 40-1
Buccaneers 50-1
Cardinals 60-1
Jets 60-1
Jaguars 75-1
Broncos 75-1
Dolphins 100-1
Giants 100-1
Lions 100-1
Panthers 100-1
Redskins 200-1
Bengals 200-1

I'm most interested in the Ravens (7-1) amongst the favorites, given their upside. The AFC North likely won't be that strong, and the Ravens should add another stud receiver on offense and then use the rest of their cap space/draft picks to make their already good defense even better. 

Several interesting teams are in the 25-1 or lower range. Maybe the Browns (25-1) turn things around and become the team most expected last offseason. Deshaun Watson isn't going anywhere and the Texans (30-1) were hit pretty hard by the injury bug on defense this season. The Buccaneers (50:1) and Cardinals (60:1) are capable of squeezing in as a wild card, and at those odds it's possible to hedge if they make the playoffs. 

Finally, my Buffalo Bills at 30-1 are something I won't be able to resist, and I'll take them again expecting a different result, which happens to be the definition of insanity.

MVPs with 2-Plus INT: Terry Bradshaw in Super Bowl XIV, three interceptions vs. the Rams; Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLIX, two interceptions vs. the Seahawks.