Streaming Defenses: Week 11 Options

Streaming Defenses: Week 11 Options

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

The biggest thing I noticed this week is actually next week. Namely that Week 12 doesn't have any clear top D/ST plays, in large part because four of the worst offenses will face each other (Jets-Texans, Bears-Lions) and none of the 15 games currently projects as a blowout (which can always change, especially if there's a major QB injury). 

The pair of Toilet Bowls figure to be featured in this space next week, though it does feel riskier than our preferred strategy of streaming teams that are favored to win by at least a field goal over opponents with subpar QBs. Fortunately, Week 11 doesn't look so tough, with four streamers we can confidently start plus two others that could join them by Sunday if the opponent's starting QB is out.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 11

1. San Francisco 49ers (at JAX)

46% Yahoo, 48% ESPN

Team implied total: 26.5

Opponent implied total: 19.5 

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 12: 14th (vs. MIN),  Week 13: 17th (at SEA)

The Niners are traveling cross-country on a short week, but they should perk up once they reach their destination and see Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence.

The biggest thing I noticed this week is actually next week. Namely that Week 12 doesn't have any clear top D/ST plays, in large part because four of the worst offenses will face each other (Jets-Texans, Bears-Lions) and none of the 15 games currently projects as a blowout (which can always change, especially if there's a major QB injury). 

The pair of Toilet Bowls figure to be featured in this space next week, though it does feel riskier than our preferred strategy of streaming teams that are favored to win by at least a field goal over opponents with subpar QBs. Fortunately, Week 11 doesn't look so tough, with four streamers we can confidently start plus two others that could join them by Sunday if the opponent's starting QB is out.

For injury/ranking updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 11

1. San Francisco 49ers (at JAX)

46% Yahoo, 48% ESPN

Team implied total: 26.5

Opponent implied total: 19.5 

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 12: 14th (vs. MIN),  Week 13: 17th (at SEA)

The Niners are traveling cross-country on a short week, but they should perk up once they reach their destination and see Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to D/STs, with seven of Jacksonville's nine opponents scoring seven or more. In a matchup this good, we'll bet on the Niners to continue their MNF momentum, though their talented defense has mostly been disappointing this year.

     

2. Carolina Panthers (vs. WAS)

30% Yahoo, 49% ESPN

Team implied total: 23.0

Opponent implied total: 20.0

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 12: 10th (at MIA),  Week 13: BYE

The Carolina defense has scored seven-plus fantasy points in eight of 10 games, including each of the past three weeks after a bit of a slump in October. Even if the consistency isn't there yet, it's been a good defense overall, ranking sixth in DVOA, 10th in fantasy scoring and sixth in points allowed (19.3 per game). Washington QB Taylor Heinicke, on the other hand, has been subpar despite the solid showing against Tampa on Sunday, placing 19th in sack rate (5.8) and 27th in INT rate (2.9) among 34 qualified passers. 

     

3. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NO)

11% Yahoo, 11% ESPN

Team implied total: 22.75

Opponent implied total: 21.25

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 12: 11th (at NYG),  Week 13: 8th (at NYJ)

Give Sean Payton his due for putting up three TDs and 373 yards on the road against a respectable defense with Trevor Siemian, Mark Ingram, Marquez Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith, Deonte Harris and Adam Trautman as his skill-position starters. Just don't expect it to last; even with good coaching and O-line play you probably need at least one skill guy who is a league-average starter. The Saints don't have one if Alvin Kamara misses another week with his knee sprain, and the smoke-and-mirrors game isn't likely to hold up against a Philadelphia defense that's played much better the past three weeks behind strong play from CBs Darius Slay, Steven Nelson and Avonte Maddox

(Don't look now, but the Eagles are 4-6 and staring ahead at Siemian, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Trevor Heinicke, Jones again, Heinicke again and then finally Dak Prescott in Week 18. That's right, they won't face a good QB again until the fantasy season is over. By then, the Eagles will barely remember what it was like to get lit up by Justin Herbert back in Week 9.)

       

4. Miami Dolphins (at NYJ)

26% Yahoo, 16% ESPN

Team implied total: 24.0

Opponent implied total: 21.0

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 12: 15th (vs. CAR),  Week 13: 16th (vs. NYG)

You probably don't need a ton of convincing here, with the Dolphins on extra rest after a primetime upset of the Ravens and now facing a Jets team that just had Mike White suffer a four-pick meltdown. Be it White, Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco under center, the Jets remain an elite matchup for D/STs. That much we can count on; TBD if Miami's defense has actually turned a corner or just came up big for one night.

          

5. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. PIT)

24% Yahoo, 4% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.75

Opponent implied total: 21.25

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 12: 16th (at DEN),  Week 13: 21st (at CIN)

The Chargers are playable as is, with upside to move up to fifth or sixth in the Week 11 rankings (currently No. 11) if Ben Roethlisberger misses a second game with COVID-19. Most players have missed just one game, but Roethlisberger landed on the Covid list Saturday and reportedly was experiencing symptoms over the weekend. The Chargers should be favored by about a touchdown if they face Mason Rudolph, who is far worse than even the washed-up version of Roethlisberger.

      

Week 11 Rankings

  1. Titans (vs. HOU)
  2. Browns (vs. DET)
  3. Buccaneers (vs. NYG)
  4. 49ers (at JAX)
  5. Ravens (at CHI)
  6. Panthers (vs. WAS)
  7. Patriots (at ATL)
  8. Bills (vs. IND)
  9. Eagles (vs. NO)
  10. Dolphins (at NYJ)
  11. Chargers (vs. PIT)
  12. Packers (at MIN)
  13. Washington Football Team (at CAR)
  14. Cardinals (at SEA)
  15. Saints (at PHI)
  16. Steelers (at LAC)
  17. Bengals (at LV)
  18. Raiders (vs. CIN)
  19. Jaguars (vs. SF)
  20. Seahawks (vs. ARZ)*

*Seattle's ranking assumes Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins return for Arizona this week. If they're out again — especially Murray — the Seahawks could move up by as much as 10 spots in the Week 11 rankings.

     

Looking Ahead to Week 12

  1. Bills (at NO)
  2. Bears (at DET)
  3. Jets (at HOU)
  4. Texans (vs. NYJ)
  5. Buccaneers (at IND)
  6. Cowboys (vs. LV)
  7. Falcons (at JAX)
  8. Seahawks (at WAS)
  9. Bengals (vs. PIT)
  10. Panthers (at MIA)
  11. Eagles (at NYG)
  12. Lions (vs. CHI)
  13. Steelers (at CIN)
  14. 49ers (vs. MIN)
  15. Dolphins (vs. CAR)
  16. Chargers (at DEN)
  17. Patriots (vs. TEN)
  18. Giants (vs. PHI)
  19. Titans (at NE)
  20. Vikings (at SF)

    

Rest-of-Season Rankings

Writer's Note: R-o-s rankings edited Wed. Nov. 17. 

  • Major changes: TB, SF, SEA moved up. LAR, CLE, GB dropped down.
  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  2. Buffalo Bills
  3. Dallas Cowboys
  4. Los Angeles Rams
  5. New England Patriots
  6. San Francisco 49ers
  7. Baltimore Ravens
  8. Arizona Cardinals
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers
  10. Seattle Seahawks
  11. Green Bay Packers
  12. Tennessee Titans
  13. Minnesota Vikings
  14. New Orleans Saints
  15. Los Angeles Chargers
  16. Cincinnati Bengals
  17. Cleveland Browns
  18. Carolina Panthers
  19. Las Vegas Raiders
  20. Indianapolis Colts

    

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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