This is our Sunday Night Football DFS breakdown, running through all the relevant player salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel while forecasting the potential game outcomes as the Green Bay Packers face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Sunday night's game between the Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers and the visiting Packers in Pittsburgh is packed with lore and carries significant playoff-race considerations for both conferences. At 4-2 the Steelers lead the AFC North, while the 4-1-1 Packers are clawing to keep their lead against the 5-2 Lions.
Even if there are no hard feelings between Rodgers and the Packers, this could be a bitterly-fought game between two urgent teams capable of pressuring the quarterback. Big hits and close calls could be a regular occurrence, and with that the outcome of the game could swivel in a wide range of directions. The over/under is set at 45.5 with the Packers three-point road favorites.
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers ($9800 DK, $11600 FD) and Jordan Love ($10000 DK, $12400 FD) carry similar projections with similar risks. Both likely face some amount of volume limitations as passers, especially Rodgers, and both might be liable to get a little glitchy if the opposing pass rushes get too hot.
Micah Parsons et al on the Green Bay defense will likely force Rodgers to get rid of the ball quickly, and Love will need to be in good form to manage a Pittsburgh pass rush with at least five concerning characters between the three down linemen and the T.J. Watt-led edge rush. It's probably safe to say both teams would prefer to win on the ground if it's an option.
RUNNING BACK
Josh Jacobs ($11000 DK, $14600 FD) is probably an advised start on this slate. His price isn't exactly cheap, but the Packers have a clear interest in establishing a robust run game against a Pittsburgh defense that would prefer to be on the pass-rush attack. The Pittsburgh front five is more dangerous rushing the passer in general, but Green Bay can make it easier on Love as a passer by tenderizing the pass rushers a little bit by roughing them up on the ground first. Jacobs should be in a high-usage scenario with a good chance to claim any of the touchdowns the Packers might score. Emanuel Wilson ($3400 DK, $4400 FD) is the top runner off the bench for Green Bay and in Week 4 he provided a useful box score against Dallas, but the Packers logged an implausible 79 snaps in that one. Wilson and Chris Brooks ($2400 DK, $2000 FD) are probably best thought of as punt plays despite their proximity to the field.
Jaylen Warren ($9600 DK, $9800 FD) is a similarly tough fade as Jacobs, if only because the price is modest for a three-down running back. Warren loses more work to Kenneth Gainwell ($3000 DK, $6200 FD) than Jacobs does Wilson/Brooks, however, so Gainwell can be thought of as a fade against Warren rather than a punt play like the Packers backups. When Warren is really rolling, though, there tends to be very little left for Gainwell. Depending on how much the Steelers attempt to throw the ball, it's possible that Gainwell could see more usage than usual if the Steelers end up run-dependent against the Parson-led pass rush. Kaleb Johnson ($400 DK, $2400 FD) could pop up with no notice at really any time, but for now he remains a distant third on the Steelers depth chart.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
DK Metcalf ($9400 DK, $11400 FD) would really help the Steelers with a big game here, though how easy that might be to accomplish is less clear. The Packers know stopping Metcalf is a key to winning, so they'll take every measure they can think of. Meanwhile, Rodgers' dependency on quick releases limits Pittsburgh's options somewhat. The Packers corners can't cover Metcalf in man coverage, so expect cautious zones and double teams on Metcalf. Calvin Austin ($5800 DK, $4800 FD) would be a leading consideration for anyone fading Metcalf, because Austin is the clear WR2 for Pittsburgh. Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek are punt plays who rarely see snaps when Metcalf and Austin are both healthy.
Rather than Wilson or Skowronek, Darnell Washington ($3800 DK, $3200 FD), Pat Freiermuth ($4000 DK, $7000 FD) and Jonnu Smith ($4200 DK, $5400 FD) might be better uses of the cap space. The three tight ends make for a crowded rotation, but their usage is loosely divided by task – Washington gets the most in-line tight end reps, meaning he lines up closest to the center on average. Freiermuth and Smith play inline too but similarly often in the slot, with Freiermuth being the primary route runner and Smith more of a checkdown/screen specialist. All three are candidates to play 30 plus snaps, though Freiermuth tends to play the fewest of the three to a slight extent.
Matthew Golden ($7000 DK, $7800 FD) is questionable with a hip injury but if he's active he would be an interesting pick against a Steelers cornerback rotation that is probably less than good. Golden would see a good amount of Jalen Ramsey in the slot, for better or worse, but it's really not an intimidating matchup at a glance. Romeo Doubs ($7600 DK, $8600 FD) is the best bet to lead the team in receiver snaps, mostly on the boundary against Darius Slay and Joey Porter. Christian Watson ($6400 DK) is probably a bit risky in his first game back, but perhaps less so if Golden is out or limited. If Golden and Watson are both out or limited it would make Malik Heath ($2800 DK, $1600 FD) an extremely interesting pick for the price.
Tucker Kraft ($8400 DK, $10000 FD) is a tough call at a less than charitable price. Kraft's talent is immense and he will usually provide extremely efficient returns for his usage, but LaFleur is sometimes liable to spread the ball around rather than feature Kraft. If Golden and Watson are out or limited, though, it might force LaFleur's hand. In the event of a high-usage game, Kraft's fantasy upside would likely prove substantial. Luke Musgrave and John FitzPatrick are punt plays behind Kraft.
KICKER
Chris Boswell ($5200 DK, $6600 FD) is one of the best kickers in league history and is always a central consideration on single-game slates. Other than Brandon Aubrey, Boswell is probably the best long-range kicker in the league. Five-point kicks are a regular occurrence. Win or lose, low-scoring or high, Boswell is capable of providing cashing production.
Brandon McManus ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) is questionable with a quadriceps injury and Luke Havrisik is the backup, apparently with 60-yard range. Neither McManus nor Havrisik are nearly as reliable as Boswell.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The defenses in this game are tough calls. Both boast potent pass rushes and face quarterbacks capable of stumbling under pressure. Both are probably tougher against the pass than against the run, though the Packers are likely the slightly better rushing offense.
The Steelers ($4400 DK, $6400 FD) have the pass-rushing personnel to cause serious issues if the Packers leave Jordan Love in unfavorable down-and-distance scenarios. The coverage personnel isn't good enough to hold serve if the pass rush is somehow stalled, however.
The Packers ($4800 DK, $7200 FD) are less specifically dependent on their pass rush, as Jeff Hafley's coverage schemes add an element of surprise that puts their corners in easier positions than the Steelers do theirs. If the Packers can stop Jaylen Warren on the ground and DK Metcalf through the air they could put Aaron Rodgers in a difficult spot.
