Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard.
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Higher
Brock Bowers 
vs. JAX - higher than 49.5 receiving yards
Fresh off a bye and after practicing in full all week, I'm willing to believe that Bowers is healthier than he's been all season. This number would've been considerably higher before his knee injury and QB Geno Smith's struggles. A home matchup against the sputtering Jacksonville Jaguars presents an opportunity for Bowers to shine, assuming Smith improves.
Tyler Warren 
at PIT - higher than 52.5 receiving yards
Warren has put up more than 52.5 yards in six of eight games, only failing to do so in blowouts against the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans. The Pittsburgh Steelers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, having allowed 300-yard games to QBs Jordan Love, Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz in recent weeks. Warren has already proven himself to be elite, and this is a great spot.
Kimani Vidal 
at TEN - higher than 74.5 rush yards
If Vidal was a household name, or if he had better pedigree, this number would be higher. He's rushed for 117 yards against the Minnesota Vikings, and 124 against the Miami Dolphins in two of three games since the Chargers lost rookie RB Omarion Hampton. Now, they get a matchup against one of the worst teams in football, who also happen to be missing their best defender in DL Jeffery Simmons.
Aaron Rodgers 
vs. IND - higher than 235.5 pass yards
DK Metcalf vs. IND - higher than 59.5 receiving yards
Calvin Austin vs. IND - higher than 36.5 receiving yards
The Colts, partly due to injuries, have one of the league's worst secondaries. I highlighted Titans QB Cam Ward, WR Elic Ayomanor and WR Chimere Dike in the same spot last week, and all three went well over their numbers.
Indy's defense has allowed 300+ passing yards to QBs Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett and Matthew Stafford in three of the last five. QB Aaron Rodgers has been playing well, and the likely script sets up nicely for the passing game with the Steelers as home underdogs. Pair him with your favorite pass catcher. WR Calvin Austin returned from a month-long absence to play 80 percent of snaps and catch four of six targets against the Packers last week. WR DK Metcalf will be licking his chops for a matchup against backup cornerbacks.
Tyrone Tracy 
vs. SF - higher than 51.5 rush yards; higher than 0.5 TDs
As sad as it was to see rookie RB Cam Skattebo get injured last week, it means Tracy is the starter again, and only has Devin Singletary to compete with for touches. The Giants also have a favorable matchup at home against the injury-depleted 49ers.
C.J. Stroud 
vs. DEN - higher than 220.5 pass yards
Nico Collins vs. DEN - higher 62.5 receiving yards
I've combined some narratives with this one. Stroud just played his best game of the season after throwing for 318 yards in last week's win over San Francisco. The Broncos will be without star CB and reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain. Collins is healthy after sitting out last week. Houston doesn't have much of a running game, either, so any offensive success likely comes through the air. It's still a tough matchup against one of the better defenses, but that's why the numbers are lower.
Jameson Williams 
vs. MIN - higher than 41.5 receiving yards; higher than 2.5 rec
Fresh off a bye and after zero catches two weeks ago, Lions coaches have said they'll make a point to get Williams the ball. Obviously, coaches say things that don't end up happening, but I'm buying in when it's a player as talented and explosive as Williams. He only needs one catch to go higher than 41.5 yards, but I like him for at least three.
