I don't recall a time in my 10 years at RotoWire where the waiver wire has ever been so bleak. That's a credit to the fantasy industry as a whole for identifying players early in the season, and even dating back to August drafts (like Woody Marks), but I also think it just speaks to how bleak some of the league's offenses are at the moment. There are very few Browns, Jets, Titans, Raiders, Saints, Giants and Panthers to roster, much less start, and you could expand that further to teams like the Steelers, Texans and Commanders, who been incredibly inconsistent either due to injured quarterbacks or just outright bad quarterback play.
That leaves basically one third of NFL offenses as a gray zone, and that doesn't necessarily change despite more defined playing time or injury situations opening opportunities for others. My only analytical assumption as a result is that true valuable difference makers week to week become even more valuable, as if the fantasy value is concentrated into an even smaller group. I'm not sure if that comes across as "no duh, Joe" as it feels while typing it, but I do think it gives additional context to correctly getting the "playoff boom-bust" guys correct. RotoWire has an incredibly nifty Strength of Schedule tool that I'll be exploring more throughout the week ahead of the stretch run for many entering the fantasy playoffs.
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For the audio and video component of the article, I also went through a fully developed list on the RotoWire YouTube channel that you can view below.
Teams with Week 11 Bye: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers - I don't necessarily have any statistical reason to suggest Rodgers is in "must play" territory other than Cincinnati's defense is horrendous. It was predictable, but still frustrating to see how fruitless the passing attack is every week, and that's further exacerbated against potent pass rushes. That doesn't really apply to the Bengals, and even with a toothless pass-catching group that seems to willingly remove it's only credible threat (DK Metcalf), I have some degree of faith Pittsburgh can scratch out enough yardage to make Rodgers a viable option this week. FAAB: 2 percent of budget if starter is needed
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins - Tagovailoa and Michael Penix have been the patron saint of the waiver wire article this year. That's obviously not a compliment because they've been bad enough to be on the fringe of rosterable all year, but the Miami QB probably is the 1B to Aaron Rodgers' 1A in the event you need to replace Daniel Jones on waivers. I'm not completely convinced everything is fixed in Miami after a divisional win against a clearly hungover Buffalo team, but Washington's defense is just dreadful in every sort of way. Tagovailo is probably a fringe QB1 for me this week. FAAB: 0 percent of budget if starter is needed
Running Back
Emari Demercado, Cardinals - Unironically we're waiting on baited breath on the status of Trey Benson, who has not yet returned despite the longer end of the estimated four-to-six week timeline following surgery to his meniscus in Week 5. There's only been positive language about Benson's rehab to this point, but fantasy managers only need to look to any number of the Buccaneers players like Chris Godwin (ankle) or Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) to understand no projectable timeline is actually a safe calculation. Platoon back Bam Knight suffered an ankle injury in Sunday's demoralizing loss to the Seahawks, which could open the door for Demercado to earn the majority of the touches in the event both Benson and Knight are unavailable. FAAB: 13 percent of budget if word comes Wednesday that Benson is out another week; 7 percent if you have Tuesday waivers and need a Jonathan Taylor/Alvin Kamara replacement
Blake Corum, Rams - For some reason, Corum is only rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues. The second-year back now has 38 carries the last three weeks, and while yes, that workload has all come during blowout wins over the opposition, Corum has recorded seven games now with five or more carries. More important, if anything happened to Kyren Williams, it's obvious that the 2024 third-round pick would effectively absorb the majority of Williams' workload, which to this point has been one of the most reliably projectable figures in the league. FAAB: 0 percent of budget if available
Wide Receiver
Tez Johnson, Buccaneers - It's seeming more and more likely Chris Godwin will not be available much of this year. I'm making a mental note to do everything in my power not to roster any San Francisco 49ers or Buccaneers next year given how both teams just deliberately do not care to provide relevant information on players to the general public. The Bills (the Week 11 opponent) are decent enough against the pass, but I think Tampa Bay will have to air it out to keep pace in this game, making Johnson a completely fine fringe streaming option in shallower leagues this week. FAAB: 3 percent of budget if available
Parker Washington, Jaguars - We mentioned Washington extensively in last week's article and basically everything repeated itself once more. Maybe when Brian Thomas (ankle) comes back there will be less volume, or if Jakobi Meyers gets more integrated into the offense you'll see the third-year wideout fall off, but I'm tired of waiting on the hypotheticals when it comes to Washington. He's Trevor Lawrence's preferred target, and that he can also give you a one-off return touchdown to boot is more than enough reason to be rostered in deeper leagues. FAAB: 4 percent of budget if available
Jayden Higgins, Texans - Don't look now, but the rookie second-round pick is finally getting more involved in the offense. Higgins played more snaps than boundary competition Xavier Hutchinson for just the second time this season, and that first time came with Nico Collins (concussion) sideline, meaning both had to see the field. It'd be a bit of an unorthodox offense to have Collins, Hutchinson and Higgins as the main trio, so I have to imagine Houston will come to its senses and have Higgins push out Hutchinson allowing for Jaylin Noel/Christian Kirk to platoon the slot snaps. If Higgins can become the team's preferred WR opposite Collins, the rookie could be lined up for a very interesting fantasy playoffs with the Cardinals in Week 15 and Raiders in Week 16. FAAB: 2 percent if you can afford to roster him before the inevitable breakout
Tyler Lockett, Raiders - The Raiders are such a dysfunctional team that of course the 33-year-old wide receiver would immediately come in and play over rookies Jack Bech (second round) and Dont'e Thornton (fourth round). Las Vegas is 2-7. The defense is garbage, the offense is anemic. There's absolutely zero point in using veterans at this stage of the season over highly drafted rookies from the year prior. If Lockett continues to see playing time he'll naturally be Geno Smith's preferred target, but it just seems completely moronic for this to be a long-term thing. FAAB: 0 percent of budget
Tight End
Theo Johnson, Giants - We'll have to see if Jaxson Dart (concussion) plays next week against the Packers, but I do have confidence even Russell Wilson can take advantage of a Green Bay defense that has struggled to stop tight ends. Johnson is probably in must-start territory if Dart is available, but I think we're still talking about fringe TE1 range whoever is QB under center for New York. FAAB: 0 percent of budget
Dawson Knox, Bills - Dalton Kincaid suffered a hamstring injury in the Sunday loss to the Dolphins. Knox would become the pass-catching tight end in the event Kincaid misses time, but at this stage of his career the veteran tight end is probably more of a red-zone specialist than anything else. There's just too many other fringe streamers to recommend Knox as a major pick up over the likes of Harold Fannin, Juwan Johnson or even Luke Musgrave. FAAB: 0 percent of budget
