2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on May 21, 2024

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

This week the PGA Tour heads to Texas for the fourth and final time of the year for the annual Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. It's never going to be the strongest field following a major championship on top of being a non-Signature Event, but we still have three of the top-10 players in the OWGR, highlighted by tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at just under 3-1 odds.

Last year, Emiliano Grillo -- at 60-1 odds -- defeated Adam Schenk with a birdie on the second playoff hole for his second Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday

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Course Overview

Par 70, 7,289 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Charles Schwab Challenge Winners since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.4
SG: Approach: 6.4
SG: Around-the-Green: 45.0
SG: Putting: 4.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.4
Driving Distance: 28.4
Driving Accuracy: 21.2

Colonial has been the host of the event since its inception in 1946, and this year it comes with a $25 million renovation. That's not to say the course is going to play much differently, with the main note being that new greens will play firm and fast - similar to what we saw at Quail Hollow a couple weeks ago. Off the tee, players will still be faced with narrow and tree-lined fairways that average under 30 yards wide. With only two par-4s over 460 yards and many dogleg holes, there's much more of a premium on accuracy than distance as players don't have to use driver as much as usual. Iron play stands out from the above statistics, with the champion ranking no worse than 12th in SG: Approach over the last six years. Players will see a lot of approach shots in the 125-175 yard range. Note that this tends to be one of the tougher tests on Tour with the champion failing to reach 10-under par the last two years.

Colonial Crushers

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Colonial over the last five years.

Texas native Spieth has put together about as consistent of a resume at a specific venue that you'll find, as the 2016 event champion has compiled eight top-10s across 11 appearances. With that said, he's coming off his first missed cut at Colonial last year and hasn't posted a top-25 over his last five starts. Still, he's 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee this year and if there's a place for him to turn it around, this is it. Meanwhile, Morikawa has also shown a fondness for the venue, ranking in the top-10 in SG: Approach in all four of his appearances here. The 2020 runner-up has been in excellent form this spring with five straight top-25 results, including top-5s in both majors. He's the second betting choice on the board at 12-1 odds.

Attackers on Approach

These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Scheffler is coming off a chaotic week, and he'll look to get back to his usual routine in his hometown event. Although he was unable to win for a fifth time in six starts, he still managed to post three rounds of 67 or better en route to his ninth consecutive top-10 result. Scheffler finished runner-up at Colonial in 2022 and followed it up with a T3 last year, in which he led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee. Another player that's been in great form with his iron play lately is Glover, who ranks 11th in SG: Approach this year. In fact, he's gained shots in the category in 12-of-13 tournaments thus far. Surprisingly, it hasn't led to a single top-10 due to some lackluster putting. Glover (55-1 odds) has made his last three cuts here with a best finish of T8 in 2021.

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Outright Picks

Justin Rose (45-1)

Not only is Rose a past champion here with three top-20s over his last four trips, he's also coming off his best finish of the season with a T6 at Valhalla last week. I think the 43-year-old has another win left in him.

Maverick McNealy (50-1)

McNealy isn't the longest hitter but still managed to finish T23 at last week's major as he was third in driving accuracy, which we know is important at Colonial. He's rounded the corner with four top-25s over his last nine starts and makes for a sneaky dark horse selection.

Aaron Rai (50-1)

Rai finished in a share for 12th here last year, which probably should've been better as he was second in SG: Approach. He worked his way into contention in Texas a few weeks ago with a T4 at the Byron Nelson – his second top-10 in the Lone Star State this year.

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Mark Hubbard (11-2)

Much like Rai, Hubbard is another good course fit considering distance is his only weakness. He posted his first top-10 at the event a year ago and has two such results since February. Hubbard's also coming off his best major finish last week, showing the game is in good form.

Eric Cole (9-1)

Cole is obviously mired in a slump, but with that can come some generous odds. He's also played four straight Signature Events/majors, so the drop down in competition level should help. I'll take the chance on him here considering driving play isn't critical to success.

Andrew Novak (12-1)

You wouldn't know that Novak is ranked 150th in the OWGR if you looked at the stats as he's 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 39th in bogey avoidance. These are nice odds for a guy that had three consecutive top-10s earlier this year.

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Austin Eckroat (-110) over Akshay Bhatia

Eckroat is the superior ball striker in the matchup, ranking 13th in driving accuracy, 28th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 42nd in SG: Approach this season. Bhatia's level has dropped off since he picked up his first victory last month, while Eckroat has posted a pair of top-20s over his last three starts and finished T16 at Colonial last year.

Andrew Putnam (-110) over Billy Horschel

Putnam has a solid track record at Colonial with three top-20s over six appearances including a T3 in 2019. He's a good target in matchup bets, especially at shorter venues with only three missed cuts this year. Horschel has been on a nice stretch recently but his best finish here is T19 (also over six trips) and is more reliant on a hot putter.

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