This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner
Location: Pebble Beach, Calif.
Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill GC
Yardage: 6,972 (Pebble)
Par: 72
2023 champion: Justin Rose
Tournament Preview
For almost 90 years, you just had to say the word "Clambake" and golf fans knew exactly what you were talking -- Pebble Beach, Bing Crosby and countless Hollywood A-listers playing in a jovial atmosphere under the backdrop of magnificent Pacific Ocean vistas. Well now, at least for one year but maybe more, the tournament will look like shell of its former self. (Maybe a clamshell of its former self? Sorry, I'll show myself out.)
Oh, Pebble Beach and the vistas will still be front and center. But most of the celebrities will be gone, notably the ones most associated with this tournament -- you know, the Bill Murrays, Ray Romanos and Clint Eastwoods that made this week unlike any other on the PGA Tour. Also, about half the real golfers will be gone too.
Before we go much further, we wanted to alert you that the weather forecast for this week is absolutely brutal. We'll get to it shortly, because it surely could affect your decision-making.
Now back to the changes.
The PGA Tour has rewarded its longest-standing title sponsor, AT&T, with a highly coveted Signature event this year -- an elite, limited field of 80 of the world's best golfers and they are guaranteed to be around all four days in this $20 million no-cut event. The amateurs in the pro-am will also be reduced from 156 to 80. Further, they will play only two days, not all four. Even further, there will hardly be any celebrities. All the 20-handicappers are out, with the amateur field filled with better golfers, not many of them big names other than athletes, among them Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Pau Gasol, Larry Fitzgerald and Buster Posey. But the names collectively are so underwhelming that you can't even find them on the tournament's official website.
The tradeoff is that the collection of pro golfers got a lot stronger, after years of woeful fields in a tournament that featured eternal six-hour pro-am rounds. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay and just about every bold-faced name will be on hand. Every non-LIV golfer in the top-67 in the world rankings is entered. So is Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, who got into the tournament at the last possible moment by winning last week's Farmers Insurance Open. So is 20-year-old Nick Dunlap, accepting PGA Tour membership and making his pro debut after winning the Amex tournament two weeks ago. And, much to the dismay and/or confusion of many, there are sponsor invites in Signature events. The four this week are Maverick McNealy, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson and Peter Malnati, the last three of whom are on the PGA Tour's Player Advisory Council. Read into that what you want. One player who was in the field but now isn't is Tyrrell Hatton, after the world's No. 16-ranked player made an 11th-hour departure for LIV. He was replaced by first alternate Hayden Buckley. This is the only Signature event with alternates, because they need 80 golfers for the 80 amateurs. Here's a full explanation of who qualified and how.
The golfers and their amateur partners will play Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (7,041 yards, par-72) once each on Thursday or Friday before only the pros turn to Pebble exclusively on Saturday and Sunday. The usual third course in the tournament rotation, Monterey Peninsula, will not be in play this year.
For such a short course, Pebble surely has some teeth and the potential to be a bear. And with this year's weather forecast calling for lots of rain, wind and chilly conditions, that should be expected this year. The hardest holes tend to be in the middle of the round -- the 195-yard 5th, the 428-yard 8th, the 504-yard 9th and the 202-yard 12th. Pebble also features two of the harder par-5s on Tour, the 580-yard 14th and the picturesque 543-yard 18th.
What makes such a short course so hard? Besides the weather, the greens are the smallest the golfers will see all year, averaging 3,500 square feet, almost half the size of the Tour average. That calls for highly accurate iron play and, barring that, great scrambling. Those tiny Pebble greens with their confounding poa annua grass are also well protected by bunkers, with almost 120 total on the course. Spyglass greens (averaging 5,000 square feet) are also poa. For the past three years, Spyglass was actually the hardest course in the rotation -- eighth hardest on Tour last year to Pebble's ranking of 21st.
We won't focus much on Spyglass, though we will note that last year, the 446-yard 6th was one of the hardest holes on Tour, as was the 430-yard 18th.
A strategy that we recommended last week at the Farmers, playing a Showdown or Tiers game and loading up on golfers playing the easier course that day, isn't as clear-cut with both of this week's courses on the harder side. Further, this year the weather could be the determining factor in lineup strategy.
Frankly, the conditions look awful. It is forecast to be rainy and windy all four days, with Thursday and Friday the two worst days. High temperatures won't climb out of the mid-50s and some golfers will be teeing off in the 40s. This is definitely a week to check the forecast close to the lock to determine if there's an advantage to early-late or late-early tee times. Right now, when this story goes live on Tuesday morning, it's simply too soon to tell.
Weather is always a concern at Pebble Beach in winter, and the Tour had to know that when granting Signature event status. But according to Steve John, who is the tournament director as CEO of the Monterey Peninsula Foundation, the non-profit that runs the tournament, this might not be a one-year deal. He told KSWB Channel 8 in the Bay Area that the plan is to be a Signature event "in perpetuity." And, he also told Golfweek: "The feeling, belief and mindset of the PGA Tour is to keep this event as a Signature event, not knowing what our future holds for us."
If that's the case, the ol' Clambake as we know it, with Bill Murray the de facto celebrity poster boy putting on an annual show for the fans, would be a thing of the past. Bing Crosby started it all at Rancho Santa Fe outside San Diego in 1937, when Sam Snead came away with the $500 first-place check. It moved to the Monterey Peninsula in 1947.
Key Stats to Winning at Pebble Beach
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approach from 125-150 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Accuracy/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Past Champions
2023 - Justin Rose
2022 - Tom Hoge
2021 - Daniel Berger
2020 - Nick Taylor
2019 - Phil Mickelson
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
Champion's Profile
Experience matters a lot in playing Pebble Beach -- not only the course but the tournament with its quirky setup, though this year the amateur portion won't be as quirky as usual. The past 14 winners all had at least a prior top-25 in this event and nine of the past 11 had played this tournament at least FOUR times previously (the other two had played it at least twice), according to @golfbettingclub on Twitter. Eleven guys in this year's field have not played this tournament before: Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, Ludvig Aberg, Nicolai Hojgaard, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Young, Dunlap, Emiliano Grillo, Taylor Montgomery and Pavon.
In the past eight years, every winning score was between 17- and 19-under. That is a very tight window. But that also included the often-easy Monterey Peninsula track and did not always include the weather conditions forecast for this week. Pebble is a second-shot golf course. Getting on the green is always harder when the greens are small, so superior wedge play is paramount -- both from the fairway and around the greens. In nine of the past 10 years, the winner did not rank in the top-20 in driving distance. The past two years, Rose (18-under) and Hoge (19-under) had trouble hitting fairways, too. But Rose showed what truly matters -- he ranked 14th in the field in both SG: Approach and Putting, and fourth in SG: Around the Green. Similarly, Hoge ranked fourth in Approach and third in Putting. Three years ago, Berger won at 18-under and ranked third in greens in regulation. Four years ago, Taylor (19-under) ranked third in GIR and second in SG: Putting. Clearly, Approach/GIR is critical.
Perhaps it's coincidence more than anything else, but there have been only three non-U.S. winners of this tournament since 1965, with Rose being the third (though Graeme McDowell did win the U.S. Open at Pebble in 2010).
The over/under on the winning score as set by golfodds.com was 269.5, which is 17.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Viktor Hovland - $10,200 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1200)
Top-priced McIlroy ($11,500) has played this tournament only once (in 2018) and No. 2 Scheffler ($11,400) will make his debut. The experience factor is too important to consider even the top-ranked players in the world. So we turn to Hovland, who not only has played this tournament twice (13th last year) but has further familiarity with these courses. As a junior at Oklahoma State, Hovland won the 2018 U.S. Amateur played at Pebble Beach and Spyglass. And he couldn't even pitch and chip then.
Patrick Cantlay - $9,700 (+1800)
It took a while for Cantlay to master this tournament and these courses, but he did. In his third go-round in 2020, he tied for 11th, then delivered back-to-back top-5s the next two years. Cantlay's recent approach and wedge play have been excellent, though his putting has uncharacteristically slumped. Still, there's enough to like here, especially at under $10,000.
Tier 2 Values
Jordan Spieth - $9,400 (+1800)
Of all the big names in golf, Spieth is the one who plays here year after year. Yes, it's because he's an AT&T pitchman, but why ruin the narrative? He's finished first, second, third, fourth, seventh and ninth through the years. He was 63rd last year, but why ruin the narrative? One reason for Spieth's success here is that he embraces the format. Another is that he's quite good at those difficult midrange Pebble par-3s that collectively might be the toughest on Tour.
Max Homa - $9,200 (+1600)
Homa missed a couple of cuts here early in his career before running off two top-10s and a top-15 from 2019-21. He's skipped the tournament the past two years. Homa has had a couple of quiet top-15s to start his 2024 season. Like Spieth, he is terrific at the midrange par-3s -- to the point that he lands at No. 1 overall in our model this week.
Collin Morikawa - $9,100 (+1800)
Morikawa is unlike all the others listed so far in that he has not played this tournament before. But, like Hovland, he did play in the 2018 U.S. Amateur, albeit without a high finish. The thing about Morikawa is, he's almost priced in the $8,000s, and that's too much of a bargain to pass up for such as elite iron player. Besides, having attended Cal-Berkeley, we suspect Morikawa has gotten plenty of reps on the two tracks. He ranks third in our model, even with suspect putting.
Matt Fitzpatrick - $8,200 (+3000)
Fitzpatrick has played four editions of this tournament. He tied for sixth in 2022, though that was his only good finish. Without knowing Fitzpatrick's tee times, the weather forecast makes us like him more than in good conditions. He can handle the conditions on tougher tracks. Plus, he's among the best in the field with his short game/putting combination.
Tier 3 Values
Beau Hossler - $7,800 (+5500)
Yeah, this is probably chalk -- guilty as charged. But guys are chalk for a reason. Hossler has been a mainstay at this tournament and, after five meh attempts, he was third in 2022 and 11th last year. And the fact that he qualified for this Signature event without benefit of a recent victory shows a sustained level of good play, and that doesn't even include last week's tie for sixth. Hossler rates highly in our model in SG: Around-the-Green and 175-200 yard par-3s.
Nick Taylor - $7,200 (+11000)
Taylor just misses a top-10 spot in our model, showing better-than-average stats in all our key metrics. He tied for seventh a few weeks back at the Sony. Taylor won this tournament in 2020, and he's added top-20 finishes the past two years.
Brendon Todd - $7,000 (+9000)
Regular readers will know we often turn to Todd on shorter tracks. In such tournaments, though, he doesn't usually come up against an elite field. But priced at just about long-shot territory and, with the weather potentially throwing lots of stuff out of whack, we're comfortable with this play. Besides, Todd hits his drives as straight as anyone, and being in the fairway could be paramount in the dicey conditions. Oh, and Todd was runner-up to Rose last year, 16th the year before.
Long-Shot Values
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $6,900 (+10000)
Bezuidenhout finished 14th here in his Pebble Beach debut two years ago. In light of all we know about tournament experience correlating to success, that's pretty impressive. He closed his 2023 with a solo third at the DP World Tour's Alfred Dunhill Championship, then opened 2024 with a runner-up to Dunlap at the Amex. Our model shows a mixed bag for Bezuidenhout, though he does rate very highly in approaches from 125-150 yards.
Cam Davis - $6,700 (+7500)
After a tremendous second half of 2023 vaulted Davis into the top-50 in the world rankings, the beginning of 2024 has not been optimum: MC-T30-MC. That said, the Aussie has played this tournament four times, from 2018 to 2021, and improved each year: MC-59-38-14. While it's still early in the season with a small sample size, we're encouraged that Davis' putting has been vastly improved, currently ranked 11th on Tour in SG: Putting. He ranks as one of the top golfers in this price range in our model.
Maverick McNealy - $6,200 (+15000)
McNealy withdrew from this tournament last year, and again the next week in Phoenix. He took a month off, then tried to play through a shoulder injury. He couldn't and then missed five months. Just last week, in his fifth tournament back, he fulfilled the terms of his major medical extension. His results haven't been great, but his T37 at the Farmers was his best yet. The Northern California product is in on a sponsor's invite, but he comes in with some credibility: a tie for fifth here in 2020 and a co-runner-up in 2021.
Want to wager on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Take a look at the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes!
