Weekly PGA Preview: John Deere Classic

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run
Silvis, IL

The PGA Tour heads to Illinois for another edition of the John Deere Classic.

In case you haven't noticed, we are now in the month of July, which can be a bit tough to get through. Yes, we've got The Open Championship in a few weeks, but outside of that, it's a pretty rough month, at least for fantasy golf that is. I say that because we have only one elevated purse this month -- The Open -- and outside the events held across the pond, there really isn't a ton of intrigue. I say that as a resident of the state that holds the final event of the month as well, but it is what it is. The problem with July is twofold. First, the travel to Europe in the middle of the month really hurts the events held in the states. The John Deere has seemingly always been in a bad spot on the schedule and this year is no exception. For years, the JDC was held the week prior to The Open, and while that was as tough as it gets, it's not much better as the lead-up to the Scottish Open, which many top players now play to get ready for the final major. The 3M Open has the same issue, but on the opposite end. For the top US players, spending two weeks overseas and then coming back to play in the states the following week is just too much. The other problem with July is that the FedExCup Playoffs are just around the corner and the best players know they'll be playing at least three consecutive weeks, so July offers the last chance to get a break. 

So, with that said, let's make the best of this. Sure, we don't have a lot of big names in the field this week, but we can still have drama, and that's fun, right? Okay, it's a tough sell, let's just get through this together, we've only got a couple weeks until the next major. 

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.                   

LAST TIME

Sepp Straka shot a final-round 62 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Brendon Todd and Alex Smalley.

FAVORITES

Sungjae Im (14-1) 

Those that follow golf closely know Im's name, but he's not necessarily a "big name," which is why I'm a bit surprised to see him atop the betting board. His track record here isn't great either, so it's a bit of a mystery why he's the favorite. Yes, there aren't many big names in the field, so someone has to be atop the list, but I don't see a ton of value here.

Sepp Straka (16-1)

And just like that, we're already onto the third-tier players. Straka is a good golfer, even by PGA Tour standards, but it's not often he's going to be the second favorite. With that said, he proved this past year that he can maneuver around this track, although prior to his win here this past year, he missed the cut and finished T26, which here, is not very good. Anyway, Straka took advantage of the weak field this past year and he certainly could do it again this year.

Aaron Rai (20-1)

Rai is just beginning his PGA Tour journey and he's already off to a good start. He was in the mix almost until this end this past week against a decent field at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and he'll definitely be looking at this week as an opportunity to pick up a win. This will be Rai's first time at this event, but it's not like we're dealing with a nuanced course here. The birdies are out there with little trouble along the way, just play your game.

THE NEXT TIER

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

Spieth has had a lot of ups and downs in his career, and he appears to be fighting through one of those down times right now, but the John Deere might be exactly what he needs. Spieth hasn't played here since 2015, but he won this event twice in the span of three years before he got too big for this event. Now he returns searching for his form and who knows, maybe he finds it against a very weak field.

Denny McCarthy (22-1)

Like many of the bigger names in the field, McCarthy is here in the hopes that he can regain some previous form. McCarthy had his best season this past year, but he's failed to back that up this season. His track record here is pretty good, with two top-10s in his two most recent starts here. If he's focused on the task at hand, McCarthy should be in the mix Sunday.

J.T. Poston (35-1)             

Poston is in the midst of one of his best seasons on the PGA Tour and a win this week would officially make it his best season on Tour. Poston struggled at this event in his first four tries, but since then he's posted a win and a T6. His form entering isn't great, but it isn't terrible either, it's just good enough to make me think that he can be a factor if he starts well.

LONG SHOTS

Eric Cole (55-1)

Cole got off to a great start this season, no doubt riding the momentum from a fantastic rookie season, but he hit a rut in March, and it took a few months to find his footing, but it looks like he might be back after a T6 this past week in Detroit. His track record here isn't great, but if he's truly found his form, it shouldn't matter, and Cole has plenty of game to get the best of this course.

Neal Shipley (80-1)         

It's not uncommon for players fresh on the PGA Tour to come out firing and then start to fade, but Shipley is still in the firing phase and if he plays well this week, he might just grab a win before he even realizes he shouldn't be winning yet. Shipley made the cut in both of his majors this season and he posted a T20 in his first "regular" start on the PGA Tour. This kid has a ton of talent, probably more than most of the field, so if he gets rolling early, he could make some noise.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth - We've covered the fact that Spieth is not having a good year, but that's partially why he'll be popular in OAD formats this week. He's still a big name, but he's not a guy you want to use at a signature event, so if not here, then where? A win seems unlikely, but a good finish isn't inconceivable.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: J.T. Poston - I'm expecting each of the favorites to have plenty of ownership, which puts Poston in that second tier. Poston has the experience on this course as well as the needed form to make a run. He's not a huge name, so he probably won't get a lot of attention, but Poston looks like a good play.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Neal Shipley - Those near the top of their leagues probably aren't going to risk a pick on an unknown quantity like Shipley, so if you are near the bottom or just need to make a move, this looks like a good play. Shipley has the game to take advantage of this track and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him near the top of the leader board on Sunday.

Buyer Beware: Jason Day - Day is the other big name in the field, but his inclusion in the field is a bit odd. He started the season on fire, but he's been middling at best over the past few months. Perhaps he needs a tune-up this week? His track record here is nothing special, just a pair of top-15s in five starts, but he hasn't played here since 2011.

This Week: Neal Shipley - Believe it or not, I actually had a few picks that I liked this week, but I eventually landed on Shipley because he's got plenty of upside and should be moderately owned at best. It's a risk for sure, but I need to make a move, so I'm not so risk averse any longer. For those that are interested, Poston was my second choice.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range:  J.T. Poston ($10,900) 
Middle Range: Neal Shipley ($9,100) 
Lower Range:  Chris Gotterup ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: J.T. Poston - While I like Shipley's upside in the OAD format, I realize that we don't have enough history to trust him in this format. Another thing to consider is that some guys might be using this week as a tune-up for the Open Championship and won't be fully invested in this event. Poston being a previous champion will not be looking past it.

Previous Results