Weekly Preview: THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach for the latest edition of THE PLAYERS Championship.

Before we get to that, a quick thought on what transpired this past week. I don't want to skip past the enormity of the win for Kurt Kitayama, but something occurred at Bay Hill that I found more interesting. Jon Rahm, the undisputed king of golf right now, rocketed to the first-round lead, and with the better draw weather-wise, it was thought that the tournament may be over. I for one had that thought, but as Rahm faded Friday and again Saturday, it became clear that my perception of what should happen when an elite player gets the early lead is a little messed up, and for that I can thank Tiger Woods. I started following golf just as Tiger was bursting onto the scene, so I didn't quite understand that when an elite player gets an early lead, it doesn't mean a win is in the bag. When Tiger got the lead early, more often than not it was over. It was referred to as the "Tiger Effect," and whether it had more to do with his play or other players crumbling around him will long be debated, but whatever the reason, you could pencil in the win whenever Tiger had a lead on the weekend, and most often when he took it Friday. Even the best of this generation have not been able to replicate that, and that's okay. In fact, it's probably better, as it provides more drama. It's not a knock on Rahm or anyone else, it's just the nature of this game. Holding a lead all week is extremely difficult. Even Kitayama went wire-to-wire, but he lost the lead for stretches. It's just another reminder of how incredible Woods was in his prime. 

Now, onto this week, it's THE PLAYERS and it's going to be wild. Why? Because the swings are unpredictable and finding any kind of consistency in the course history is almost impossible.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Cameron Smith shot a final-round 66 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Anirban Lahiri.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (17-2)

Rahm topped the betting board Monday, but things have changed, and McIlroy now occupies the top spot. One of those two guys will almost always lead the list, and that's because the public loves betting on both. McIlroy gave fans something to get excited about this past week, as he nearly forced a playoff before Kitayama birdied the 17th hole and moved one stroke ahead. It took McIlroy a few starts to find his game stateside after the calendar flipped to 2023, but he looks to have found his groove. His track record here -- like everyone -- is scattered, but unlike many players he does have a lot of high-end finishes, including a win in 2019.

Scottie Scheffler (10-1)

Scheffler and the two guys sandwiching him have really formed a bit of a cluster inside a cluster. They are the elite of the elite, and while Scheffler doesn't generally get as much love from the public, the oddsmakers realize what a force he is. Scheffler has the form at the moment, as he was once again in the mix this past week, but he doesn't have much experience on this course and that could be a problem this week. Scheffler has just two starts here and only a T55 to show for it.

Jon Rahm (11-1)

Rahm played some of the worst golf we've seen from him in 12 months and he still opened with a single digit on the left side of his odds. I get it, he's the best golfer in the world and he's been on a heater for half a year. The problem this week is that he's had more finishes at TPC Sawgrass outside the top 50 than inside it. Add to that the general unpredictability of this event and you can see why his price has dipped.

THE NEXT TIER

Justin Thomas (19-1)

I usually like to dive a little deeper down the list to find my first "mid-tier" guy, but I had to find a spot for Thomas, who of all the players in the field might have the best track record. Some players have more high-end finishes, but JT has never missed a cut here and finished top-25 in four of his seven starts. Thomas won this event in 2021, and while he faltered this past Sunday, he played well before the final round, so I think he's close enough to pull off a win.

Viktor Hovland (27-1)

You will notice a lot of the same names from last week, and that's because most of the guys listed in that edition played well at Bay Hill. Hovland was in the mix until a couple mistakes Sunday, but his game is in good enough shape to win. TPC Sawgrass requires a lot of precision off the tee and into the green. Short game is not of upmost importance this week, which means Hovland should be in the mix. Hovland missed the cut here in his first start, but he posted a T9 in his second trip last year.

Xander Schauffele (28-1)

Now for something I don't normally do -- make a stat-based pick. Because ball striking is so important here, I decided to check out the SG: Approach category, and guess who is top-5? To be exact, Schauffele ranks fourth in this category, which makes his track record at this event all the more perplexing. Schauffele hasn't always been this good approaching the green, so perhaps his improved precision will make the difference. I should note that Schauffele does have a T2 at Sawgrass, so the upside is there even though he's missed a lot of cuts here.

LONG SHOTS

Tom Kim (37-1)

Sticking with the SG: Approach theory, Kim currently ranks 13th in that category. While I'm nervous about him being a first-timer, he fared just fine in similar spots over the past year. I like that Kim has fallen off the radar a bit, which has had an effect on his odds. If you had asked me before the season if I'd see Kim at this number or higher, I would have guessed no. Once he gets back on track, we won't see odds this high again. The risk is a bit high, but this isn't a OAD situation, this is about betting someone to win, so you should just be focusing on the reward.

Corey Conners (55-1)

Just over a year ago, Conners was in the same class as Scheffler, and while they've taken wildly different paths since, the fact remains that Conners has a lot of talent. Conners has not been elite over the past 12 months, but it looks like he's trending in the right direction. Whether his game is close enough to make a run is the question, but he's got a decent track record here, and that might be enough to get him fully back on track.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - After his play this past week and considering his track record at this event, you can bet that McIlroy will be very popular. My only hesitation on using McIlroy in this spot is that he holds a lot of value in the majors. Remember, just because these purses are a lot bigger this year, you still want to have a handful of guys that are capable of winning major championships when those roll around.

Moderately-owned Pick: Justin Thomas - I debated putting Hovland here, as I think he will be popular as well, but with Thomas getting a lot of airtime this past weekend and his status as a former champ, I'm assuming a lot of OAD players will be on him. I like JT this week, but like McIlroy, Thomas is a nice chip to have for the majors. If it comes down to Hovland and Thomas, you might want to factor in the major component.

Lightly-owned Pick: Tom Kim - It seems weird that everyone is ignoring Kim, but trust me, OAD players are going big this week, and with so many good options at the top, he will be a forgotten man. That's where you swoop in if you are looking to make up some ground.

Buyer Beware: Harris English - English is starting to regain his form, which means you'll start seeing him pop up in your OAD leagues, but this isn't the week for him. Even at his best, he never fared well in this event. English has made just two cuts in eight tries, and he's never cracked the top 30. Expect English to go on a nice run at some point after this week.

This Week: Xander Schauffele - This was not an easy one. I'd honestly be okay with any of the top six players listed above, but I can only take one. I've used Rahm and I'm saving Scheffler and JT for the majors. McIlroy is going to be really popular, and I'm hoping to zig while everyone else zags. Hovland was also in the mix, but I'm going with my gut. This actually came down to JT/Hovland/Xander because I want someone on the late/early tees as the weather looks to slightly favor that side.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Justin Thomas ($11,600)
Middle Range: Corey Conners ($9,700)
Lower Range: Taylor Montgomery ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Justin Thomas - Thomas will have plenty of value in this format at the majors, but this is not a week that you want to take lightly. In fact, it might be tougher to pick a guy to make the cut this week than at any major, so why not take the guy who has yet to miss a cut here in seven tries?

Previous Results