Unlock Fantasy Success: Top NHL Power Play Rankings Revealed

Power play production is a difference maker in fantasy. But it's easy to glance at historical trends and think you know exactly which guys to pick. I did that. Again and again. I did it the first four times I cut the NHL's historical power play data. 

Every analysis of three-year data produced a different ranking. Each time, it felt like something was missing. But the fifth time's a charm. OK, so that's two more than the old saying. But it fits in my case. And yes, I'm a data nerd. I love a good regression analysis. IYKYK. But I digress.

And yah yah, I know you'll lose your spleen when you see the Oilers are 10th on this list. Aren't they supposed to be the class of the NHL? Quite frankly, they drop off the list with Thursday's news that Zach Hyman is out until November. I cut this data before that news. Andrew Mangiapane is no Hyman. 

So, how did I get to this ranking? These projections are based on the following inputs:

1. Three-year opportunity trend (volume patterns - stable/improvement/decline?)
2. Efficiency trajectory (are there conversion rate improvements/declines?)
3. Roster change impacts (Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk injury)
4. Coaching system changes (Rick Tocchet/Adam Foote transition)
5. Short-handed goals against trends (defensive system stability… or not)

Opportunity can be based on luck, even if people talk about how good a team is at drawing penalties. But a three-year period can show interesting trends. Efficiency is a much better measure because it shows how well a team executes on the power play, irrespective of opportunity. Put consistently high volume together with high efficiency, and your team is gold.  

Roster changes, especially the addition of a superstar, can make a big impact on both volume and efficiency. New coaches mean new systems for both the team they left and the one they joined. And shorthanded-goals-against efficiency speaks to system strength. A strong system buffers fluctuations in volume by keeping shorthanded goals down.

Let's take a look. 

Tier 1: Elite PPG Production (65+ Goals Projected)

1. Vegas Golden Knights: 70-75 Projected PPG

PP1: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Shea Theodore

The Golden Knights are the class of the NHL. They're a lower-volume team with improving efficiency, especially last season, and excellent defensive structure. Adding an elite playmaker like Mitch Marner in an ideal system for him means a 15-20 PPG boost this season. Boom.

Opportunity projection: 195-205 (maintaining recent volume)

Efficiency projection: 32-35 percent (elite playmaker impact a.k.a. The Mitch Effect)

Risk factors: Marner's integration timeline, opportunity sustainability

2. Detroit Red Wings: 68-72 PPG

PP1: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider

Yes, I was gobsmacked by this rank, too. The Red Wings have missed the playoffs for nine straight seasons. But their efficiency has been consistently improving year over year, and they get a lot of opportunities. This combination actually makes them the most reliable projection on the list. Go figure. Maybe the YzerPlan is working. 

Opportunity projection: 240-250 (maintaining high volume)

Efficiency projection: 27-29 percent (continued ascension)

Risk factors: None significant -- who knew?

3. Dallas Stars: 68-72 PPG

PP1: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnson, Thomas Harley/Miro Heiskanen

The Stars have a strong defensive base, but the team has been in a slow and steady power play decline. Enter Mikko Rantanen, whose elite finishing reverses that trend. The real question is which defender runs the show. Both Harley and Heiskanen bring skills that can make the top unit soar. 

Opportunity projection: 250-260 (aggressive style with elite talent)

Efficiency projection: 26-28 percent (The Rantanen Effect reverses declining efficiency)

Risk factors: Very few unless opportunity generation lags

4. New Jersey Devils: 65-70 PPG

PP1: Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton/Luke Hughes

The Devils are the poster child for improving efficiency (20%→22.5%→28.2%). And that, coupled with stable opportunities, means goals, goals, goals. This ranking isn't without risk. Luke Hughes isn't in camp because of a contract dispute, and that casts a bit of a pall. And there's always a risk of stepping back. But I really like this group. 

Opportunity projection: 220-230 (slight increase from young team aggression/The Hughes Effect)

Efficiency projection: 28-30 percent (sustaining breakthrough performance)

Risk factors: Sophomore slump potential, regression to the mean

Tier 2: High PPG Production (60-67 Projected Goals)

5. Winnipeg Jets: 65-68 PPG

PP1: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti, Josh Morrissey

The Jets have system stability coupled with consistent opportunity, and I think they can sustain their elite efficiency. Their breakout in 2024-25 was real. 

Opportunity projection: 225-235 (maintaining recent levels)

Efficiency projection: 27-29 percent (sustaining elite efficiency)

6. Tampa Bay Lightning: 65-70 PPG

PP1: Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel

The Lightning is a historically elite power play producer. But that masks a significant defensive vulnerability (11→6→13 SHGA). Tightening up the system even a touch moves them back into tier one.  

Opportunity projection: 240-250 (high-volume system)

Efficiency projection: 26-28 percent (return to form)

7. Colorado Avalanche: 62-65 PPG

PP1: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar

The Avs have a star-studded cast with remarkable consistency and high volume opportunities (261→278→234). The fly in the proverbial ointment is Gabriel Landeskog, who missed three seasons following cartilage transplant surgery. He's a star, but the game he knew has disappeared. Still, the power play may be the perfect deployment for a one-legged wonder.

Opportunity projection: 250-260 (aggressive style maintenance)

Efficiency projection: 24-26 percent (steady performance)

8. Pittsburgh Penguins: 60-65 PPG

PP1: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Kris Letang/Erik Karlsson

Yes, the Pens are aging. But Sid the Kid and Geno are still stars, and the team recovered after an abysmal 2023-24. They still didn't make the playoffs in 2024-25, but they did rebound nicely on the power play. And that should carry forward. Either Kris Letang or Erik Karlsson will power the point; both will deliver similar totals with risk. 

Opportunity projection: 230-240 (aging stars getting chances)

Efficiency projection: 25-27 percent (sustaining recovery)

9. Utah Mammoth: 60-63 PPG

PP1: Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev, JJ Peterka

Well, well. This was a surprise. The Mammoth/Coyotes combination has delivered a consistent, three-year improvement over time. The addition of JJ Peterka all but guarantees continued ascension. Be the one who gives his group more attention. 

Opportunity projection: 240-250 (maintaining volume)

Efficiency projection: 24-26 percent (continued growth)

10. Edmonton Oilers: 58-62 PPG

PP1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Andrew Mangiapane (Zach Hyman), Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard

The Oilers continue to show defensive dominance (7→5→4 SHGA). But they have dropped in opportunities year over year (275→243→215), and their efficiency dropped in 2024-25, too. Zach Hyman's absence until November will hurt. A lot. Bread Man Lite isn't Hyman. A likely 5-8 PPG drop puts the Oilers in tier three. Wow. 

Opportunity projection: 220-230 (continued volume decline)

Efficiency projection: 25-27 percent (stabilizing after decline)

Tier 3: Moderate PPG Production (50-60 Projected Goals)

11. Toronto Maple Leafs: 50-55 PPG

PP1: Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, John Tavares

Gulp. With Mitch Marner, the Leafs were a top-three team, although their underlying metrics reveal a slow three-year decline. Without him, they lose 10-15 PPG and drop to tier three. Craig Berube's strong system may keep goals out of the net. But Marner's absence means the lack of a true QB is exposed even more.

Opportunity projection: 210-220 (reduced with less aggressive play)

Efficiency projection: 22-24 percent (major playmaker loss impact, a.k.a Missing Marner)

12. Chicago Blackhawks: 52-56 PPG

PP1: Teuvo Teravainen, Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi, Connor Bedard, Sam Rinzel/Artyom Levshunov

Yes, this is an optimistic projection, and it's not without risk. But the Hawks are a young, emerging team that has shown improvements that could be sustainable. The D is inexperienced, but Artyom Levshunov is the real deal, even if it takes time to get used to the smaller ice. Momentum is the product of mass times velocity. The Hawks are improving in both. 

Opportunity projection: 200-210 (young team discipline improving)

Efficiency projection: 25-27 percent (sustaining improvement)

13. Vancouver Canucks: 48-52 PPG

PP1: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes, Jake DeBrusk

The Orcas' PP is a talented group with a magician on the point. But Rick Tocchet's departure to Philly means a 5-8 PPG drop. Adam Foote is a known commodity in Vancouver, and he ran special teams last year. But he's a defender through and through. And it can take a good 15-20 games for a team to adjust to a new system. 

Opportunity projection: 215-225 (slight decline without Tocchet's aggressive systems)

Efficiency projection: 21-23 percent (coaching transition impact)

Conspicuous by their Absence (<50 Projected Goals)

Florida Panthers (14-16 Range)

PP1: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Brad Marchand, Seth Jones

The announcement of Matthew Tkachuk's surgery dropped the Panthers from about 10th all the way down to 15th. He's a major driver on the power play, and without him, the top unit will need a new net front presence with aggression who can finish. The Honey Badger is good, but Marchand is no Tkachuk, at least at this point in his career. A December return means 30 games lost (at best). And Seth Jones is solid, but no magician. Fifty PPG may be a stretch.