This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 284 takes place Saturday in Perth, Australia, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 284 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight Championship
(C) Islam Makhachev (23-1-0) v. (FW Champ) Alexander Volkanovski (25-1-0)
DK Salaries: Makhachev ($9,500), Volkanovski ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Makhachev (-380), Volkanovski (+310)
Odds to Finish: -165
Returning to Australia for the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic, this will be the eighth time in UFC history two reigning champions will face off.
Makhachev won his title in October, submitting Charles Oliveira midway through Round 2. It was a flawless performance from a guy that has now won eleven in a row dating back to September of 2016. Lightweight is arguably the deepest division in the sport today, but Islam is plenty talented enough to have a long, long reign at the top. He's that good.
Speaking of good, Volkanovski enters having won 22 in a row, including his first dozen UFC bouts. To give you an idea how good Alex has been, his last six victories have come against Max Holloway (three times), Jose Aldo, The Korean Zombie and Brian Ortega. The second Holloway fight was close, the rest were not. This is a no-lose situation for Volk. His 145-pound title isn't on the line, and he has a chance to become a two-division champion in a fight in which most people, myself included, think he has little chance. He's playing with house money at this point.
The obvious and most significant aspect of this fight will be the size disparity between the two. Makhachev fights at 155 pounds and looks like a welterweight. Volkanovski is giving up size to almost every opponent he faces at 145 pounds.
Islam's wrestling is among the greatest difference-makers in the sport today. He averages 3.42 takedowns per 15 minutes, and one he gets you to the mat, you don't get up. Alex is an excellent all-around fighter, but this is a massive ask for any lightweight, let alone a featherweight. As strong and talented as he is, he's at real risk of getting outmuscled repeatedly at the point of attack.
On the flip side, Volk wins with volume on the feet. He's a high-end striker who excels at angling off his opposition and applying constant pressure. Alex is going to have the edge in terms of technical skill on the feet, but he's facing a tricky southpaw that might appear to be twice his size on fight night.
I expect Volkanovski to have a cardio advantage, so perhaps he can steal one of the first two rounds and then hope to win this fight in Rounds 4 and 5.
The intrigue regarding Alex from a DK standpoint is that you're getting an easy top-five pound-for-pound fighter, if not better, at a bottom-barrel price. I don't think he wins, and I think there's a real chance, better than fifty/fifty, this thing turns out extremely lopsided in Islam's favor, but I couldn't fault anyone that decides to bet on Volkanovski's pedigree given the price tag and the fact he'll have the crowd behind him in a major way.
THE PICK: Makhachev
Co-Main Event - Interim UFC Featherweight Championship
Yair Rodriguez (15-3-0, 1NC) v. Josh Emmett (18-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,500), Emmett ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-165), Emmett (+140)
Odds to Finish: +150
Volkanovski fought last July and is headlining this event, so there's no real reason for the UFC to create an interim 145-pound title. Yet, here we are. The winner of this fight will get Volk next regardless of the result of the main event.
Rodriguez is 2-1 in his past three fights. The loss came to Holloway via decision, while the wins were a decision over the since-released Jeremy Stephens and a knockout of Brian Ortega, which was the result of Ortega suffering a fluke shoulder injury late in the opening round. In short, Rodriguez probably doesn't deserve a title shot, but he's been gifted a major opportunity here and is talented enough to take advantage.
Emmett has quietly won five straight and seven of eight. He missed a year and a half from mid-2020 to late 2021 due to a serious knee injury. His most recent win was a split decision victory over Calvin Kattar last June in which Emmett was extremely fortunate to get the call. It was a potential-career-altering win for a guy that will be turning 38 years of age just a couple weeks after this event takes place. This will probably be Josh's only chance at UFC gold given his advanced age.
Rodriguez and Emmett are both strikers, but both go about attacking their opposition in entirely different ways.
Standing at 5-foot-11, Rodriguez is highly creative and unorthodox. He fires off a ton of kicks and throws everything from awkward angles. It's nearly impossible to find a training partner that can mimic his style. Emmett is much more traditional. He targets the head and is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own.
Emmett is going to have to figure out a way to negate a five-inch Rodriguez height advantage, even though he's giving up just a single inch in reach.
I don't have a super strong feeling about this fight one way or another. Rodriguez is bigger, younger and more athletic. I also feel like he could give Emmett issues if he constantly moves his feet. Josh is very set in his way and rarely varies his attacks. That said, Emmett hits harder and will have the pure power edge.
I'm ultimately going to take Rodriguez for the reasons listed, but an Emmett win certainly wouldn't shock me. Everything regarding the Vegas odds and DK salaries seems about right for this fight.
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena (13-2-0) v. Randy Brown (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Della Maddalena ($9,200), Brown ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)
Odds to Finish: -165
Having turned 26 years of age this past September, Della Maddalena has quickly inserted himself into the conversation when speaking about the best prospects in the sport today. The hard-hitting Aussie earned his UFC opportunity with a unanimous decision victory on Dana White's Contender Series in September of 2021. He made his official company debut in January 2022, fighting three times last year. All three fights (Pete Rodriguez, Ramazan Emeev, Danny Roberts) resulted in first-round knockout victories. The Roberts fight, the most recent and the longest, lasted 3:24.
By any measure, Brown represents a significant step up in competition for Della Maddalena. "Rude Boy" enters having won four straight and six of seven dating back to June 2019. His lone defeat during that span came against perennial contender Vicente Luque. Very inconsistent during the early part of his UFC run, Brown seems to be finding his footing in the past few years.
As I mentioned earlier, Della Maddalena has blasted everyone he has faced thus far with vicious power shots. That projects to be considerably more difficult against Brown. For starters, Randy is a huge welterweight. He's a legitimate 6-foot-3 and will enter with a four-inch edge in height and five-inch edge in reach over Jack. Della Maddalena has the type of fight-altering thunder in his hands that Brown's size edge may not matter, but I expect this bout to be competitive.
Brown is an underrated athlete. He moves pretty well and has no significant holes in his game. He's been knocked out twice in his professional career, and I'm entirely certain Randy and his team are well aware that standing in front of Della Maddalena and going blow-for-blow is a recipe for disaster.
As someone who has been a Brown supporter for a while, I expect him to put forth a better effort than his DK salary and the Vegas odds would lead you to believe. He needs to close the distance between the two and attempt to tie up Jack at all costs. If he does that, I wouldn't rule out an upset. That said, Della Maddalena has been so impressive that he has to be the pick outright.
THE PICK: Della Maddalena
Heavyweight
Justin Tafa (5-3-0) v. Parker Porter (13-7-0)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($8,400), Porter ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (-130), Porter (+110)
Odds to Finish: -190
This is a very strange fight to have on the main card of a Pay-Per-View. The only thing I can think of is that sometimes events held as far away as Australia can be difficult to book.
A native of New Zealand, the 29-year-old Tafa has made five UFC appearances. It hasn't gone well. He's 2-3, with both of the victories and one of the defeats coming via knockout. The sample size is obviously small, but everything we have seen to date points to Tafa being a one-dimensional brawler who steps into the Octagon and hopes to finish his opponent before being finished himself.
Porter dropped his UFC debut to Chris Daukaus in August 2020 before somehow, remarkably, running off three straight victories. The competition he faced in those fights was exceedingly poor, -- Josh Parisian, Chase Sherman and Alan Baudot -- and all three of the wins came via unanimous decision, but it put Porter in position for a fight against rising star Jailton Almeida. Parker almost made it a round (4:35) before being submitted.
There's a real chance this will be the least technical fight you have ever seen. Both men are 6-foot, which is undersized for the heavyweight division.
We know Tafa is going to enter and start throwing bombs, but Porter theoretically has another path to victory. He's averaging 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one successful try in each of his victories. With Tafa a big favorite in terms of crowd support, Porter should try to take them out of the fight entirely by grappling.
This fight is such a random coin flip that I'm willing to roll the dice on Porter as an underdog. It may never materialize, but he MIGHT attempt to lean on his wrestling. There's been no evidence Tafa has that in his arsenal. That's enough to swing me in Porter's direction in a pick 'em.
THE PICK: Porter
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (12-3-0) v. Alonzo Menifield (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Crute ($8,600), Menifield ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Crute (-205), Menfield (+175)
Odds to Finish: -315
Crute has been with the UFC for more than four years now, which is pretty remarkable considering he'll be turning just 27 years of age in early-March. We've seen some highlight-reel victories from Crute, but his three losses with the company have been highly concerning. All came via first-round stoppage, including a 48-second knockout loss to Jamahal Hill, the man who has since gone on to win the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, in his most recent bout last December. Crute represents capable roster depth, but placing him up against guys like Hill and Anthony Smith isn't going to work. With a 1-2 record in his past three fights, Crute could be fighting for his roster spot.
Speaking of inconsistent, enter Menifield. Alonzo began his UFC run with back-to-back knockout victories. He then lost three of five before responding with two more knockout wins in his last two trips to the cage. Menifield has elite power and explosiveness, although the latter tends to only manifest itself in short spurts. Having turned 35 years of age last October, Alonzo needs to figure out a way to win fights such as this one.
While the power edge certainly goes to Menifield, Crute is the better grappler. He's averaging a whopping 4.87 takedowns per 15 minutes. He got Smith to the mat three times in the one round their fight lasted. Alonzo is a better athlete than he gets credit for, and his takedown defense (85 percent) has been excellent to date. It's no secret what Jimmy will attempt to throw his way. I'd certainly take Menifield in a back-and-forth slugfest.
I don't have a ton of confidence in Alonzo to remain upright under the constant pressure from Crute, but this fight, in my opinion, is the perfect example of trying to take advantage of a strange line.
Crute is clearly being overvalued because he's fighting in his native Australia. Other than the fact he's gone up against better competition, nothing in Crute's background suggests he deserves to be a $1000 more expensive than Menifield. Maybe it will work out, maybe it won't, but I'll take the savings and hope Alonzo can stave off the takedowns and blast Crute into oblivion, as we have seen him do multiple times in the past.
THE PICK: Menifield
Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro (9-3-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pedro ($8,900), Bukauskas ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Pedro (-230), Bukauskas (+195)
Odds to Finish: -240
THE PICK: Pedro
Featherweight
Josh Culibao (10-1-0) v. Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Culibao ($8,200), Baghdasaryan ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Culibao (-110), Baghdasaryan (-110)
Odds to Finish: +115
THE PICK: Baghdasaryan
Flyweight
Shannon Ross (13-6-0) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Ross (7,400), Rodrigues ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Ross (+250), Rodrigues (-300)
Odds to Finish: -115
THE PICK: Rodrigues
Lightweight
Jamie Mullarkey (15-5-0) v. Francisco Prado (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Mullarkey ($8,700), Prado ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Mullarkey (-250), Prado (+210)
Odds to Finish: -165
THE PICK: Mullarkey
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (10-2-0) v. Don Shainis (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Jenkins ($9,300), Shainis ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Jenkins (-320), Shainis (+265)
Odds to Finish: -195
THE PICK: Jenkins
Women's Strawweight
Loma Lookboonmee (7-3-0) v. Elise Reed (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lookboonmee ($9,000), Reed ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Lookboonmee (-250), Reed (+210)
Odds to Finish: +190
THE PICK: Lookboonmee
Featherweight
Shane Young (13-6-0) v. Blake Bilder (7-0-1)
DK Salaries: Young ($8,300), Bilder ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Young (-135), Bilder (+115)
Odds to Finish: -120
THE PICK: Bilder
Lightweight
Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) v. Elves Brenner (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Tukhugov ($9,600), Brenner ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Tukhugov (-540), Brenner (+420)
Odds to Finish: +105
THE PICK: Tukhugov
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 284 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
