This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 95 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 95 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 305 special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight Championship
(C) Dricus Du Plessis (21-2-0) v. Israel Adesanya (24-3-0)
DK Salaries: Du Plessis ($7,900), Adesanya ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Du Plessis (+110), Adesanya (-130)
The run du Plessis has been on of late is shocking to me. This is a guy that never seems comfortable inside the Octagon. It always seems like he's "chasing" the fight, but he keeps on winning. He's a perfect 7-0 in the UFC. Dricus defeated Robert Whittaker via knockout in July 2023 and then went on to win the 185-pound title from Sean Strickland via split decision in January in Toronto. I thought Strickland won that fight, but it was close enough that it was too hard to get worked up about the decision either way.
In one of the crazier stats you will ever see, this will be Adesanya's 12th straight title fight. The former two-time UFC Middleweight Champion, Izzy lost his belt to Strickland in a lopsided affair last September and hasn't fought since. The belt has obviously changed hands since then, but Adesanya is more than deserving of regaining the belt given his past body of work.
Adesanya's performance against Strickland was highly concerning. Sean fights the same style against everyone. He continues to push forward, working behind his jab and taking very few chances. Whether it was simply a bad matchup or an off night, Izzy had an extremely difficult time reading and reacting to what was coming his way. Du Plessis also struggled at times, but landed far more offense in his bout against Strickland.
The main question at this point is whether or not Adesanya can bounce back. He's now 35 years of age and entirely reliant on his striking for success. He's closing in on 30 MMA bouts, in addition to 80 professional kickboxing matches. That's a lot of damage to both take and give out. If Adesanya's striking is starting to slip, even a bit, he's in trouble.
Dricus is the far more accomplished grappler. He's averaging exactly three takedowns per 15 minutes, and most importantly, landing a whopping 51 percent of his attempts. I expect him to try to wrestle Adesanya early and often.
Both the DK salaries and Vegas odds seems correct. This fight is essentially a pick 'em, with Izzy getting a very slight bump since he will have the crowd behind him.
I went back and forth with my pick, but settled on du Plesiss. Dricus has the ability to employ a similar style as Strickland. He won't fire off anywhere near the same amount of jabs as Sean, but he will continue to push forward, thus limiting Adesanya's ability to pick him apart from distance. Toss in the ability to land a takedown in a key spot, and I think he wins a tight decision.
THE PICK: du Plessis
Co-Main Event - Flyweight
Kai Kara-France (24-11-0, 1NC) v. Steve Erceg (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kara-France ($7,400), Erceg ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Kara-France (+125), Erceg (-175)
Fast tracked to a title shot following wins over Matt Schnell, Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak to begin his UFC run, Erceg took on champion Alexandre Pantoja in May in Rio de Janeiro. It was a tough fight in enemy territory, and Erceg showed quite well despite getting swept on the scorecards. He still has the look of a guy with a ton of upside, only lacking experience against quality competition at this point. He'll get that against Kara-France.
Kai needs a victory in the worst way. He was knocked out by Brandon Moreno in an interim title fight in July 2022 and followed that up with a split decision loss to Amir Albazi last June. Nearly the entire world, myself included, thought Kara-France won that fight, but two of the three judges disagreed. Now he's going to have to find a way to defeat a quality opponent in a must-win spot.
The one thing that has impressed me the most about Erceg is how calm and composed he is inside the Octagon. He processes things extremely quickly. His reads are strong in all aspects of the sport. Things may not always be going his way, but Erceg seems to know exactly what he wants to do at all times inside the cage.
Kara-France, on the other hand, is far more instinctive. He definitely has more power than Erceg and is more comfortable in a firefight. If this thing somehow turns into a slugfest, Kai is going to have the edge. If it becomes a technical boxing match, the advantage goes to Erceg.
Kara-France is a native of New Zealand, and Erceg was born in Perth, where this event is taking place, so both men figure to have plenty of crowd support.
The power of KKF is highly intriguing for a flyweight, but I think Erceg is just too technical to lose this fight. I was very impressed with the Pantoja showing despite the loss. He doesn't overcommit to shots, and he does an excellent job of avoiding taking heavy damage.
Any Kara-France win will almost certainly have to come via one-punch knockout, or one massive blow that leads to a finish. It's certainly not impossible, but I'd bet against it. I think Erceg is an easy top-five flyweight at this point with the potential for more.
THE PICK: Erceg
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2-0, 1NC) v. Dan Hooker (23-12-0)
DK Salaries: Gamrot ($9,300), Hooker ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Gamrot (-325), Hooker (+260)
Hooker has rebounded nicely from a stretch in which he lost three of four from June 2020 to March 2022. He has picked up two straight victories since, a split decision over a heavy Jalin Turner and a brutal knockout of Claudio Puelles. Hooker is 34 years old and more or less a one-dimensional brawler, but he's ridiculously tough and big for lightweight. He's a fringe top-10 guy, which is misleading because the 155-pound division is loaded.
Speaking of rolling, Gamrot is 7-1 in his past eight bouts, with the lone defeat coming via against Beneil Dariush. Included in that stretch is a June 2022 unanimous decision win over Arman Tsarukyan, a future title challenger and very likely the second-best lightweight in the world these days behind champion Islam Makhachev.
As expected, the striking numbers, at least in terms of volume, greatly favor Hooker. He lands almost exactly two more significant strikes per minute (5.08) than Gamrot (3.09). Dan also gets hit far more often (4.76 to 3.07) which isn't surprising given his brawling nature.
I do have concerns regarding Hooker's performance as he ages. We've seen some lousy performances from him in the past, and the vast majority of them were the result of him struggling to get his head off the center line. Dan has been in a ton of wars over the years, and I imagine his body is beginning to break down on him in some way.
That said, the striking numbers are all irrelevant if Hooker is unable to remain upright. Gamrot is averaging a ridiculous 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has landed at least one takedown in each of his nine UFC bouts and has connected on four-plus on six different occasions. In his most recent fight against Rafael dos Anjos in March, Gamrot had 11 takedowns.
Hooker's 80 percent takedown defense is strong, but we've seen him pinned to the mat for long stretches in the past. Gamrot's top game is exceptional, and I think Dan is going to struggle to get back to his feet if he is inevitably planted on his back.
I don't love the price tag, but this is an easy pick. Gamrot should cruise here as long as he is able to limit Hooker's space and not absorb a ton of damage on the feet. Even if he doesn't rack up a ton of takedowns, just pinning Dan to the cage in an effort to tire him out should serve Mateusz well. This is the type of fight in which Hooker has struggled in the past, and I can't see that changing as he gets to the latter stages of his career.
THE PICK: Gamrot
Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa (15-7-0) v. Jair Rozenstruik (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Tuivasa ($7,300), Rozenstruik ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Tuivasa (+185), Rozenstruik (-225)
This is a very strange fight between two heavyweights that go about things in totally different styles.
Tuivasa is getting a notable slot on the main card of a Pay-Per-View in his home country despite the fact he has lost four fights in a row, all via stoppage. That gives you an idea his immense popularity in Australia. Now, those four defeats have come against Marcin Tybura, Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane. The UFC has done Tuivasa zero favors regarding who it has matched him up against, but that's the trade-off for receiving main event fights and slots on a PPV main card.
Rozenstruik is in a similar spot, although he certainly isn't facing the immediate crisis Tuivasa is dealing with. Jair is 2-3 in his past five fights. Again, the defeats came against elite opposition in Jailton Almeida, Volkov, and Curtis Blaydes. The two wins came over Chris Daukaus via KO, and most recently a main event win over Shamil Gaziev in which Gaziev started quickly, faded, and literally quit at the end of Round 4.
Tai possesses fight-altering power and nothing else. He hasn't landed a single takedown in his UFC run and doesn't have a submission victory in his career. His entire win condition is via knockout, usually within the first handful of minutes because his output and effectiveness drops off a cliff as a fight progresses.
Rozenstruik can't match Tuivasa's power, but he's a more technical striker and MUCH better conditioned to fight upwards of 15 minutes, if necessary. He literally just defeated Gaziev because of his gas tank and nothing else. The longer this goes, the better it is for Jair. If he can just limit mistakes early on and not get floored, he should have a decent chance of emerging victorious.
I really want to bring myself to take Tai given the salary relief, but I just can't do it. He's essentially a one-round fighter. If Jair can avoid getting starched in the opening minutes, he should be able to lean on Tuivasa and grind out a decision, at a minimum. This is a bet on the fighter with the better all-around arsenal and much better gas tank.
THE PICK: Rozenstruik
Welterweight
Li Jingliang (19-8-0) v. Carlos Prates (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Li ($7,000), Prates ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Li (+260), Prates (-325)
The big story here is the return of Li, who will be competing for the first time since September 2022. He got hosed on a split decision that evening in a fight against Daniel Rodriguez. Best I can tell, Li had just one fight scheduled in the interim, an April 2023 bout against Michael Chiesa in which he withdrew due to injury. The time away is a major concern for a guy that turned 36 years of age this past March.
Prates has shown well thus far, albeit against lower-end opposition. He knocked out Mitch Ramirez on Dana White's Contender Series last August to earn his UFC opportunity. He officially debuted in February and knocked out Trevin Giles before returning less than four months later and scoring a first-round knockout win over Charles Radtke. We'll have to see how it holds up against better competition, but the power appears to be entirely legitimate.
Everything I mentioned earlier about Hooker and his brawling tendencies applies to Prates. He's willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. It's worked just fine thus far because he's faced lesser opponents, but he's going to have to mix up the game plan eventually. The thing is, I'm not sure a 36-year-old fighting for the first time in two years is the guy to force Prates out of his comfort zone.
Li's last four victories are via knockout, so he's no slouch himself in the power department. I would certainly give Prates the edge in terms of terms of one-and-done power, however.
The elephant in the room here is Li's legendary durability. He's never been finished in 27 professional bouts, and we have seen him take some insane beatings over the years. Assuming that durability is still valid, I could see him absorbing some massive shots early on until he is able to find his range and damage Prates in return.
Li can also mixed in a well-timed takedown every now and then, which seems like an exceptional idea in this fight. Prates gave up one takedown from Ramirez, but stuffed both attempts from both Radtke and Giles.
I'm willing to back Li as an underdog even if I don't think he wins outright. The time away and his advanced age are both massive concerns. I'll be very impressed if he can come back here and find a way to get past a rock-solid opponent in Prates. That said, I wouldn't put it past him. Li has shown well in the past.
THE PICK: Prates
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Junior Tafa (5-2-0) v. Valter Walker (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($8,200), Walker ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (-130), Walker (+110)
THE PICK: Walker
Featherweight
Josh Culibao (11-3-1) v. Ricardo Ramos (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Culibao ($8,500), Ramos ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Culibao (-140), Ramos (+120)
THE PICK: Culibao
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill (9-2-0) v. Luana Santos (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: O'Neill ($7,600), Santos ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: O'Neill (+145), Santos (-175)
THE PICK: Santos
Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) v. Herbert Burns (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Jenkins ($9,600), Burns ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Jenkins (-800), Burns (+500)
THE PICK: Jenkins
Lightweight
Tom Nolan (7-1-0) v. Alex Reyes (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Nolan ($9,800), Reyes ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Nolan (-1200), Reyes (+750)
THE PICK: Nolan
Welterweight
Song Kenan (20-8-0) v. Rick Glenn (22-8-2)
DK Salaries: Song ($8,700), Glenn ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Song (-200), Glenn (+165)
THE PICK: Song
Flyweight
Stewart Nicoll (8-0-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nicoll ($9,000), Aguilar ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Nicoll (-225), Aguilar (+185)
THE PICK: Nicoll
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 305 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
