This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC London card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
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Jafel Filho (14-3-0) v. Daniel Barez (16-5-0)
Jafel Filho - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Daniel Barez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Filho had an impressive showing in his UFC debut, going toe to toe with one of the best grapplers in the division and nearly submitting him. Barez is making his UFC debut after rattling off four straight wins by first-round finish but lost his DWCS fight before those. I expect this fight to be close, with Filho having a slight edge on the mat and Barez a slight edge on the feet. If the grappling cancels out, a low-scoring striking match will take place.
UFC London Pick: Filho
Bruna Brasil (8-3-1) v. Shauna Bannon (5-0-0)
Bruna Brasil - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
Shauna Bannon - Height: 5'5" - Reach: N/A - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Bannon is set to make her UFC debut after a perfect 5-0 start to her professional career. Brasil will be taking part in her second fight after being knocked out in her debut. I expect the first few minutes to be close, with Brasil pulling away as the fight progresses. She should be better everywhere, and I would not be surprised to see her finish this fight early.
UFC London Pick: Brasil
Chris Duncan (10-1-0) v. Yanal Ashmouz (7-0-0)
Chris Duncan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Yanal Ashmouz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a highly entertaining fight for as long as it lasts. Both fighters have considerable power and could record a knockout at any time. However, Duncan should have an edge on the mat if he changes levels. I do not expect this to need the judges, so a high score is likely for DFS.
UFC London Pick: Duncan
Ketlen Vieira (13-3-0) v. Pannie Kianzad (16-6-0)
Ketlen Vieira - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
Pannie Kianzad - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: While Vieira is the better overall fighter, I can see Kianzad having success on the feet, as she throws more volume. This should lead to Vieira attempting more takedowns and searching for top control on the mat. Kianzad has solid takedown defense and should look to take advantage as Vieira shoots in. I will ride with the dog in a fight this close but do not expect a high score.
UFC London Pick: Kianzad
Bryan Barberena (18-10-0) v. Makhmud Muradov (25-8-0)
Bryan Barberena - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Makhmud Muradov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Barberena is a dog and will likely have a moment or two, but I expect Muradov to have complete control of the fight and end it within the first two rounds. A second-round finish might be tough to hit value at his price, but anything in the first should smash it.
UFC London Pick: Muradov
Mick Parkin (6-0-0) v. Jamal Pogues (10-3-0)
Michael Parkin - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Jamal Pogues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Pogues has been less than impressive in his two Contender Series fight and UFC debut. Parkin is scheduled to make his UFC debut and is expected to be better anywhere the fight goes. Pogues will have his chances on the feet, but I expect Parkin to overwhelm him and seal the deal early.
UFC London Pick: Parkin
Marc Diakiese (16-6-0) v. Joel Alvarez (19-3-0)
Marc Diakiese - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
Joel Alvarez - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not expect this fight to see the scorecards unless Diakiese gains control on the mat. However, Alvarez will be the aggressor and should control where the fight goes. He should have a significant edge everywhere and finish this fight early.
UFC London Pick: Alvarez
Danny Roberts (18-7-0) v. Jonny Parsons (8-3-0)
Danny Roberts - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Jonny Parsons - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Parsons is set to make his UFC debut, and Roberts will be his toughest test to date. Parsons is a solid striker, and his best chance to win this fight is by knocking Roberts out. However, Roberts can match his striking and will have a considerable edge on the mat. This is too big of a step up for the debuting Parsons.
UFC London Pick: Roberts
Davey Grant (13-6-0) v. Daniel Marcos (14-0-0)
Davey Grant - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Daniel Marcos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Grant is a dog and always puts on a good show. He is getting up there in age but still has solid power and grappling. His best bet will be to get this fight to the mat and hunt for a submission. Marcos is coming off a debut win and moved to 14-0. He is a sniper and will have a considerable edge on the feet, and he has shown a decent get-up game if taken down. I expect the younger fighter to come away still undefeated.
UFC London Pick: Marcos
Lerone Murphy (12-0-1) v. Josh Culibao (11-1-1)
Lerone Murphy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Josh Culibao - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a slower-paced striking match that likely sees the judges' scorecards. Both fighters are precise with their strikes and decent defensively. The big difference in this matchup should be the kicks from Murphy, but I do not expect a high score from either in a win.
UFC London Pick: Murphy
Jai Herbert (12-4-1) v. Fares Ziam (13-4-0)
Jai Herbert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Fares Ziam - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Herbert will always have the opportunity to record a knockout when fighting, as he holds considerable power in his hands. He lacks takedown defense however, and I expect Ziam to take advantage of that, as he will have a significant edge on the mat. Ziam can hold his own while striking, but getting this to the mat as early as possible would be wise. I like him to record his first UFC finish and put up a value-crushing score for DFS.
UFC London Pick: Ziam
Andre Muniz (23-5-0) v. Paul Craig (16-6-1)
Andre Muniz - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
Paul Craig - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Watching Craig's last two fights has made me lose all confidence in him. He will always be a submission threat but will likely continue to struggle against higher-level fighters. Muniz is dangerous everywhere, particularly on the mat grappling, matching Craig's best strength. I expect Muniz to come out fast, wear down Craig and put him away early for a solid DFS score.
UFC London Pick: Muniz
Nate Wood (19-5-0) v. Andre Fili (22-9-0)
Nathaniel Wood - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Andre Fili - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a tightly contested battle for 15 minutes, with both guys having their moments. Wood has a considerable edge on the feet, while Fili has a slight advantage on the mat. However, Wood has the wrestling to avoid a compromising position, and this will help him get it back to the feet as well. Effectively, this contest should primarily take place standing up, where Wood can pile up damage and volume en route to a unanimous decision.
UFC London Pick: Wood
Molly McCann (13-5-0) v. Julija Stoliarenko (10-7-1)
Molly McCann - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
Julija Stoliarenko - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Stoliarenko is an excellent grappler and will always have a grappler's chance at a submission, but that is about it. McCann will be better everywhere else and should be in control for most of the fight. I expect her to come away with another win, but she will not hit value without an early finish or dominant wrestling.
UFC London Pick: McCann
Tom Aspinall (12-3-0) v. Marcin Tybura (24-7-0)
Tom Aspinall - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
Marcin Tybura - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Aspinall's run took a slight detour after he was injured a year ago, ending his undefeated UFC streak. Assuming he is fully healthy in this return, I expect him to get back on track and dominate this fight. Tybura is a calculated striker with decent wrestling but will be overwhelmed early and often by Aspinall. I expect Aspinall to end this early and smash value.
UFC London Pick: Aspinall
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC London DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
