This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Nashville card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
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Ode Osbourne (12-5-0) v. Asu Almabaev (17-2-0)
Ode Osbourne - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Asu Almabaev - Height: 5'4" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Almabaev debuts with an impressive resume from other promotions and gets a solid first fight in the UFC. Osbourne has been up and down, and you never know what version you will see. I expect a close start but for Almabaev to take over as the fight continues, particularly on the mat.
UFC Nashville Pick: Almabaev
Jake Hadley (10-1-0) v. Cody Durden (15-4-1)
Jake Hadley - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: On the feet, this fight will be close. However, I do not think it will stay there long, as both guys prefer to bring it to the mat. Hadley has shown a willingness to be taken down to work submissions from the back. He has solid grappling and only needs one mistake to take advantage. Durden is likely the stronger and better wrestler of the two. He could control multiple rounds and score the upset if he avoids getting his neck taken. I expect this to be close, but Durden has looked a little better and is my pick to win.
UFC Nashville Pick: Durden
Billy Quarantillo (17-5-0) v. Damon Jackson (22-5-1)
Billy Quarantillo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
Damon Jackson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Everything Jackson does, Quarantillo does better. Quarantillo took a nasty knee and was knocked out in his most recent fight, but I expect him to right the ship here and dominate Jackson. Quarantillo is again one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC Nashville Pick: Quarantillo
Jeremiah Wells (12-2-1) v. Carlston Harris (18-5-0)
Jeremiah Wells - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Carlston Harris - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to stay close until the bell if there is no finish. Wells will have the edge in power, while Harris will have the edge in volume. I will back the favorite in Wells, as he has faced and had more success against better competition. Harris could make things interesting if he initiates takedowns, but I see him having little success with them.
UFC Nashville Pick: Wells
Raoni Barcelos (17-4-0) v. Kyler Phillips (10-2-0)
Raoni Barcelos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins
Kyler Phillips - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys fighting to the best of their abilities will offer an incredible fight. However, Barcelos is now 36 and has shown minor signs of slowing down, which will give Phillips a considerable advantage given the pace he pushes. I expect Phillips to come out quickly and control every aspect of the fight.
UFC Nashville Pick: Phillips
Ignacio Bahamondes (14-4-0) v. L'udovit Klein (19-4-1)
Ignacio Bahamondes - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
L'udovit Klein - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Bahamondes is getting another step up in competition after winning three in a row. Meanwhile, Klein is looking to put another win on the board after a majority draw that he arguably won. Bahamondes will have an edge in volume and size. Klein has already shown he can hang with guys sporting a considerable reach advantage and will offer a significant edge on the mat if he takes it there. I expect Klein to pick up on Bahamondes quickly and stop him in his tracks.
UFC Nashville Pick: Klein
Tanner Boser (20-10-1) v. Aleksa Camur (6-2-0)
Tanner Boser - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
Aleksa Camur - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This low-level light heavyweight fight could go in either direction. Boser has lost four of his last five, while Camur has lost two in a row. Given that Camur looked significantly better in his most recent fight, I would give him the advantage in this one. I expect him to hand Boser his walking papers.
UFC Nashville Pick: Camur
Gavin Tucker (13-2-0) v. Diego Lopes (21-6-0)
Gavin Tucker - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Diego Lopes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Lopes will make his second appearance in the UFC after a tough but well-fought debut. Tucker returns to the ring after almost 2.5, and ring rust will likely be an issue. He was a fast-rising prospect with multiple high-level wins already in the UFC before his first loss. Lopes is as dangerous as they come on the mat, but Tucker is also an exceptional grappler and should be able to avoid danger. I expect Tucker to control where the fight occurs and score a considerable upset.
UFC Nashville Pick: Tucker
Dustin Jacoby (18-7-1) v. Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-3-0)
Dustin Jacoby - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Jacoby enters on a two-fight slide, though you could argue he won at least one of those decisions. Nzechukwu rides in on a three-fight finish streak and draws another step up in competition here. Nzechukwu has shown dangerous power, but Jacoby has not been knocked out since 2014. Jacoby will have a significant size disadvantage but will be the fighter putting out more volume and more likely to wrestle. I expect this to be a close fight, with Jacoby winning on the cards.
UFC Nashville Pick: Jacoby
Jessica Andrade (24-11-0) v. Tatiana Suarez (9-0-0)
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
Tatiana Suarez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Andrade is stepping in for a short-notice fight, attempting to correct mistakes from her last two fights, though this might be too soon after getting knocked out in early-May. Suarez will have a considerable advantage everywhere the fight goes, particularly in size and grappling. Suarez is widely expected to dominate this matchup and keep her undefeated record intact.
UFC Nashville Pick: Suarez
Cory Sandhagen (16-4-0) v. Rob Font (20-6-0)
Cory Sandhagen - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Rob Font - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Font is stepping in on short notice to take on Sandhagen. While he is a strong striker, Font should easily outpoint him. Sandhagen will also have the edge on the mat. I expect Sandhagen to make quick work of Font and end this early.
UFC Nashville Pick: Sandhagen
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Nashville DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
