This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Nashville takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Catch Weight (140 pounds)
Cory Sandhagen (16-4-0) v. Rob Font (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Sandhagen ($9,300), Font ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Sandhagen (-315), Font (+230)
Odds to Finish: -120
Sandhagen was due to face Umar Nurmagomedov here before the latter withdrew a few weeks ago due to a shoulder injury. The fight will be contested at a 140-pound catchweight given the fact it came together so late.
Sandhagen is fresh off back-to-back wins over Marlon Vera and Yadong Song on the heels of back-to-back losses to Petr Yan and TJ Dillashaw. Cory is unquestionably a top-five fighter in a loaded division at this point, if not better. His only truly poor performance in a dozen UFC bouts was a 88-second submission loss to current UFC Bantamweight Champion Aljamain Sterling in June 2020.
Font appeared to be in real trouble not all that long ago, dropping back-to-back unanimous decisions to Vera and Jose Aldo, but he rebounded in a major way to score a knockout win over Adrian Yanez in just over three minutes this past April. Very few people (myself included) give him much of a chance to win this fight, so it was smart to take it given that he has essentially nothing to lose.
Font is a boxer. He lands a whopping 6.46 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.03 per minute. That last number is fairly low considering the aggressiveness with which Font fights, but he better be careful about picking his spots against Sandhagen, an opponent with an all-around offensive arsenal.
Cory is a complete mixed martial artist. He's deceptively good on the mat for a guy that averages less than a takedown per 15 minutes (0.89), although, like Font, Sandhagen does his best work on the feet.
Font has an inch reach edge, but he's giving up three inches to Cory in height. Rob doesn't throw many kicks, so he's going to have to find a way to consistently and effectively measure the distance between the two.
Rob is a good fighter who is tough as nails and more than capable of defeating quality opponents that are willing to stand and trade with him, but I think Sandhagen is far too smart for that. He has yet to be knocked out in 20 professional fights, and we've seen him overwhelm guys like Vera, Dillashaw and Yan on the feet. I expect him to zig when Font thinks he'll zag, and although I could see Rob making it to the final bell, this is an easy pick. Give me the guy that was scheduled for a fight here all along.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Sandhagen
Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Jessica Andrade (24-11-0) v. Tatiana Suarez (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($6,700), Suarez ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (+300), Suarez (-425)
Odds to Finish: -250
Suarez was supposed to face Virna Jandiroba here, but the latter withdrew, eventually being replaced by Andrade. I'm not sure it's such a wise decision.
To say I'm highly concerned about Andrade would be a massive understatement. Set to turn 32 years of age in late-September, Jessica is fresh off back-to-back defeats. She was dominated and then submitted by Erin Blanchfield this past February, only to return less than three months later, getting knocked out by Yan Xiaonan midway through Round 1. It's important to note Yan didn't have a single knockout during her time with the UFC prior to that bout, with her last one coming way back in April 2016 in a promotion called "Road FC."
Most feel Suarez has title potential at either strawweight or flyweight, but it's impossible to tell because she's barely fought. Tatiana returned from a 3.5 year layoff in February to easily submit Montana De La Rosa. It had the feel of a warmup fight, to be honest. Suarez has fought five times since winning Season 23 of The Ultimate Fighter in July 2016. Included in that stretch are victories over current UFC Women's Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso and another over long time contender Carla Esparza.
The main selling point regarding Andrade over the years was how much power she had in her small frame. That said, she has just a single knockout victory in the last four years, and her durability is starting to wane. Jessica has fought a ton over the years, and it's certainly fair to wonder if her body is simply beginning to break down.
Suarez, on the other hand, should be in peak condition considering how little she's competed. Having all of ten professional fights under your belt at age 32 isn't a good thing, but at least Tatiana is fully healthy, something that has been a major issue over the years.
Both women are heavily reliant on their wrestling game. Suarez probably would have been a US Olympian in wrestling had a neck injury not derailed her. She's averaging 6.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing a ridiculous 58 percent of her attempts. She's also never been taken down.
Andrade had all sorts of trouble with the aggressiveness of Blanchfield, and I'm worried something similar will happen here. Suarez is the much bigger women, and I could see her completely wiping Jessica out. Andrade's power would theoretically be a difference maker, but it's been a non-factor of late.
To summarize, this is a case of an up-and-coming fighter against an opponent that is beginning to show signs of fading. Andrade being nearly a full year younger than Suarez doesn't mean anything considering what each has been through. Maybe I'm way off base here, but this was not a difficult pick, although the price tag is terrifying and far higher than I anticipated.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Suarez
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (18-7-1) v. Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Jacoby ($7,800), Nzechukwu ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Jacoby (+130), Nzechukwu (-155)
Odds to Finish: -110
Now 35 years of age and the loser of back-to-back decisions to Azamat Murzakanov and Khalil Rountree, Jacoby may very well be fighting for his job. Yes, he was unbeaten in seven UFC bouts (6-0-1) prior to this recent skid, but Dustin has zero history of defeating better competition, and he probably won't get the benefit of the doubt if he puts forth another lousy effort in this one.
On the flip side, Nzechukwu is a great shape, entering having won three in a row (Devin Clark, Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson), all via stoppage. I'm not quite sure how much legitimate upside there is with Kennedy, but anyone with a pulse is worth monitoring in a thin light heavyweight division, and Nzechukwu is in better shape than most given his recent string of success.
The one thing that stands out about Kennedy is his size. Jacoby is no small man at 6-foot-3, but he's going to enter the Octagon on Saturday night at a significant size disadvantage. Nzechukwu is every bit of 6-foot-5 and will have a massive, seven-inch reach edge.
I've been impressed with the improvements of Nzechukwu under the tutelage of "The General" Sayif Saud at Fortis MMA in Dallas. He seems to have a real game plan inside the Octagon and has shown an ability to fight through difficult stretches. Kennedy's physical gifts aren't the greatest in the division, but he seems to tailor his game plan to his opposition, something we don't see enough of in the sport these days.
Everything here, from the DK salaries to the Vegas odds, seems correct.
Kennedy may have to survive an early flurry from Jacoby, but he's been stopped via strikes just once in 15 professional bouts. He should have a significant edge if this reaches Round 3. I like Nzechukwu a ton given his reasonable price tag.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Nzechukwu
Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo (17-5-0) v. Damon Jackson (22-5-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Quarantillo ($8,900), Jackson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Quarantillo (-175), Jackson (+145)
Odds to Finish: -190
The definition of roster depth, Quarantillo has alternated wins and losses in his past six bouts. Billy has real, underrated power and is tough as nails, but he's a pure brawler that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. That never plays against better competition, as we have seen.
Jackson had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a knockout loss to Dan Ige this past January. A mat specialist that offers little on the feet, Jackson was always at risk of being overwhelmed by Ige in a prolonged striking battle, and that's exactly what happened. I've been impressed with Damon in his second stint with the company, but he'll be 35 years of age three days after this event takes place, and it's entirely possible, if not likely, we have already seen the best he has to offer.
The advanced numbers indicate just how reckless Quarantillo is on the feet. He averages 7.86 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 5.79 per minute. For comparison's sake, Jackson is at 2.78 and 2.92, respectively. Damon isn't the type to take advantage of a brawler in the stand-up, but he could easily plant Billy on his back if he ends up off balance while attempting some wild combinations.
There's zero doubt I trust the fight IQ of Jackson more than Quarantillo. Damon's ground game is also the best asset either fighter brings to the table, as 15 of his 22 career victories have come via submission.
There's a real chance Billy overwhelms Jackson on the feet and Damon never has a chance to settle in here, but the value here is entirely on the side of the latter.
Jackson has a clear path to victory if he can get his ground game going, and Quarantillo has a history of being reckless inside the Octagon. All it will take is one off-balance strike attempt and Damon will have him on the mat.
Toss in the fact $7,300 is a very cheap price for a fighter than finds himself just a +145 underdog, and you have an easy potential upset spot.
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Jackson
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Diego Lopes (21-6-0) v. Gavin Tucker (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lopes ($8,300), Tucker ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Lopes (-160), Tucker (+135)
Odds to Finish: -135
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Tucker
Light Heavyweight
Tanner Boser (20-10-1) v. Aleksa Camur (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: Boser ($8,700), Camur ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Boser (-160), Camur (+135)
Odds to Finish: -105
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Boser
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes (14-4-0) v. L'udovit Klein (19-4-1)
DK Salaries: Bahamondes ($9,100), Klein ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Bahamondes (-205), Klein (+170)
Odds to Finish: -110
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Bahamondes
Bantamweight
Kyler Phillips (10-2-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Phillips ($9,000), Barcelos ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Phillips (-200), Barcelos (+165)
Odds to Finish: +110
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Phillips
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells (12-2-1) v. Carlston Harris (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Wells ($8,500), Harris ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Wells (-135), Harris (+115)
Odds to Finish: -210
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Harris
Flyweight
Cody Durden (15-4-1) v. Jake Hadley (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Durden ($7,400), Hadley ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Durden (+165), Hadley (-200)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Hadley
Featherweight
Sean Woodson (9-1-1) v. Jesse Butler (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Woodson ($9,600), Butler ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Woodson (-500), Butler (+350)
Odds to Finish: TBD
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Woodson
Flyweight
Ode Osbourne (12-5-0, 1NC) v. Asu Almabaev (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Osbourne ($7,600), Almabaev ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Osbourne (+155), Almabaev (-185)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC NASHVILLE PICK: Almabayev
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Nashville with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
