This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Dean Barry (4-1-0) v. Mike Jackson (0-1-0, 1NC)
Dean Barry - Height: 5'10" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Powerful pressure striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 4 knockouts in 4 fights
Mike Jackson - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ No recorded professional wins
DFS Perspective: Aside from a lucky knockout shot, Jackson has zero chance to win this fight. He has not fought in four years, with CM Punk being his most recent fight. Barry is the up and comer, finishing all of his wins in the first round. I expect more of the same here. A first-round finish or an insane amount of volume will be needed for Barry to hit value, but he is one of the safest plays on the slate.
My Pick: Barry
Marcin Prachnio (15-5-0) v. Philipe Lins (14-5-0)
Marcin Prachnio - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume power striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
Philipe Lins - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Low volume technical striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not trust either guy very much. Lins is coming down from heavyweight after two consecutive defeats. Prachnio might have found some footing in the UFC after winning two straight. Both guys are finishers and have significant power. I expect this fight to play out on the feet for as long as it lasts, and I do not expect it to reach the judges. A finish could come as early as Round 1 between these bangers, which would result in either guy hitting value and potentially making optimal at their price points. I favor Prachnio ever so slightly, as his most recent success should carry over momentum, but I would trust him more as a GPP target than cash.
My Pick: Prachnio
Aori Qileng (18-9-0) v. Cameron Else (10-5-0)
Aori Qileng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume striker
~ Plus wrestling and takedowns
~ 7 finishes in 18 wins
Cameron Else - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ Moderate volume pressure striker
~ Plus grappling with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Else makes an interesting GPP play this week. He is a fast starter and dangerous on the mat but tires quickly. If he can take it to the mat and lock up a submission, he would nearly break the slate as one of the bigger dogs on the card. On the feet, I would expect him to get pieced up until finished. Qileng will dominate this matchup on the feet, and I expect him to be the one applying forward pressure and laying on power shots. He should have the wrestling to avoid being submitted or controlled on the mat and keep the fight on the feet. I do not expect this fight to go to the scorecards, and both guys would score well with a finish. Qileng is safe to use in cash and GPP.
My Pick: Qileng
Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) v. Ike Villanueva (18-13-0)
Tyson Pedro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume striker
~ Plus grappling and submissions
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
Ike Villanueva - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume boxer
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 15 knockouts in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Pedro last fought in December of 2018 and, at the time, was a promising prospect with a bright future. If we see that same Pedro, I expect him to smash Villanueva and finish this fight early. He is a wizard on the mat and should be looking for a submission as soon as it hits it. Villanueva has fought five times since the beginning of 2020, but four of those were knockout losses. He is clearly coming to the end of his career, and it is tough to say how much he has left in the tank. He could still clip Pedro and end it early himself, but he has not shown me anything recently that tells me he has much of a chance. I am not sure even ring rust could cause Pedro to lose this fight. Pedro is better used for GPP, given how long it's been since he last fought, but I do not think playing him in cash is a bad idea.
My Pick: Pedro
Dwight Grant (11-4-0) v. Sergey Khandozhko (27-6-1)
Dwight Grant - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume power striker
~ Minimal wrestling but will takedown occasionally
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Sergey Khandozhko - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Low volume distance striker
~ Decent wrestling
~ 17 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to play out on the feet for 15 minutes. Six of the nine UFC fights between these two have reached the scorecards, and I expect more of the same in this one. Both guys tend to fight safe and slow from a distance. Grant will have a slight advantage in the power department and will be looking to clip Khandozhko early. Khandozhko will be looking to chop at the legs and calves of Grant with powerful leg kicks, looking to slow him down and create level changes. As for DFS, I do not care for either guy. Neither scores well in decisions, so another low score is likely without a finish. GPP is the only play I would make for either fighter.
My Pick: Khandozhko
Jordan Wright (12-2-0, 1NC) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (13-5-0, 1NC)
Jordan Wright - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume power striker
~ Plus grappling and submissions
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
Marc-Andre Barriault - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume counter striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Banger alert. Wright does not like when fights leave the first round, and in five UFC fights, his longest went 5:18. He has massive power and loves walking in on his opponents, looking to clip the chin. Wright has an excellent background in wrestling/grappling and submissions, but for some reason never employs it. If he were to here, I would expect the odds to be much closer than they are. Barriault also carries considerable power and has an excellent counter waiting for when Wright walks in. One of these guys is going down and likely within the first 10 minutes. Wright makes an excellent GPP play given how low he is priced, as an early knockout would smash value. Barriault makes a better GPP play than a cash play due to the odds of this fight ending by finish.
My Pick: Wright
Preston Parsons (9-3-0) v. Evan Elder (7-0-0)
Preston Parsons - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume striker
~ Elite grappling and submissions
~ 9 submissions in 9 wins
Evan Elder - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume striker
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This likely ends up being a typical striker vs. grappler match. Elder is making his UFC debut, and there is limited tape on him. His best opportunity in this fight will be to keep this on the feet and use his power to find a knockout. Parsons was knocked out in his UFC debut after being unable to get the fight to the mat but should find some success with takedowns in this one. I expect Parsons to find a takedown early and use his grappling wizardry to lock up an early submission. As I write this, pricing has not been released for either fighter. Regardless, I would only use either in GPP, but I would lean the way of Parsons to score something big with an early submission.
My Pick: Parsons
Mudaerji Su (16-4-0) v. Manel Kape (17-6-0)
Mudaerji Su - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume distance striker
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume pressure striker
~ Plus grappling and submissions
~ 16 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Another fight that could be explosive. Su is getting his yearly fight in and has the power to end this at any time. He carries a slight advantage on the feet and will be looking to pressure forward in search of a clean shot on the chin. Kape also carries power in his hands, but he likely gets knocked out if he tries to stand with Su for too long. He will carry a considerable advantage on the mat and should look to get it there early. Su has been submitted four times in his professional career, and he could be dealt his fifth in this one. Kape is safe to use in cash and GPP as any finish will hit value for his. Su makes an excellent GPP play given his knockout power, and an early finish would smash value.
My Pick: Kape
Maycee Barber (9-2-0) v. Montana De La Rosa (12-6-1)
Maycee Barber - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" - Switch
~ Moderate volume pressure striker
~ Decent wrestling and takedowns
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Montana De La Rosa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume distance striker
~ Plus wrestling and grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Both ladies are coming in off much-needed wins, though Barber's was questionable. I expect Barber to have the advantage in both power and volume on the feet. She should also be the one pressing forward and landing the cleaner shots. De La Rosa has decent, low-volume striking but thrives on the mat with control and submissions. I expect her to have the advantage on the mat, and she should look for takedowns early and often. Barber has shown some struggles with wrestlers and being controlled lately, leading me to believe these odds should be closer. If Barber can defend takedowns, she should pile on volume and win this on the feet. If she is unable to, De La Rosa should be able to control this on the mat and make an upset statement, making her a great GPP play.
My Pick: De La Rosa
Lando Vannata (12-5-2) v. Charles Jourdain (12-4-1)
Lando Vannata - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume technical striker
~ Plus wrestling and takedowns
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Charles Jourdain - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" - Switch
~ High volume power striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Potential Fight of the Night honors in this one. Vannata has a great wrestling background, but I expect him to trade blows with Jourdain for 15 minutes or as long as it lasts. Both fighters are tough and can eat shot after shot. Jourdain will likely be the fighter pressing forward and throwing more volume. If Vannata chooses to stay on the feet, he will need to chop at the legs of Jourdain and work to slow his pace. I like Jourdain's volume and power to edge this fight out, and he should be safe to use in cash and GPP. Even in a decision, Jourdain should be able to hit value with the volume he can put up.
My Pick: Jourdain
Clay Guida (37-18-0) v. Claudio Puelles (12-2-0)
Clay Guida - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume striker
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 37 wins
Claudio Puelles - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Low volume striker
~ Elite wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Guida has the tools to make this fight interesting. He pushes a crazy pace, never stops moving and backs up decent striking with excellent wrestling. However, if he goes to wrestle in this fight, he might run right into a buzzsaw. On the other hand, Puelles has looked phenomenal in his last two fights, showing off his elite wrestling and grappling and pushing his win streak to four. His striking leaves much to be desired, but when the fight hits the mat, he makes it exciting, and a submission is always in play. If there is no finish by either fighter, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair for DFS. Guida has been submitted 10 times professionally, and I think Puelles makes it 11. Given his upside, I like Puelles for cash and GPP, as I think he is the better overall fighter.
My Pick: Puelles
Alexandr Romanov (15-0-0) v. Chase Sherman (15-9-0)
Alexandr Romanov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume pressure striker
~ Elite grappling, takedowns, submissions, and ground and pound
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
Chase Sherman - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ High volume power striker
~ Little to no wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Not much to say here. Sherman is taking this on super short notice and only wins by the luckiest of knockout shots. Romanov should completely dominate and finish this in Round 1. He will have the advantage everywhere, but specifically on the mat where he crushes opponents. Romanov is safe for cash and GPP. I would not use Sherman at all.
My Pick: Romanov
Amanda Lemos (11-1-1) v. Jessica Andrade (22-9-0)
Amanda Lemos - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" - Southpaw
~ High volume power striker
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume pressure striker
~ Plus wrestling, takedowns, and ground and pound
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a war between these two ladies. Both fighters come out fast, looking for the knockout, and both like to apply high forward pressure. Lemos will have the reach advantage and would be wise to keep the fight at range. Andrade is typically always the smaller fighter but loves to work her way into the pocket and unleash on her opponents. Lemos tends to tire out after the first half of a fight, and now she is expected to somehow make it five rounds, if it were to go that long. I expect Lemos to come hard in the first two rounds, looking for a finish. If she does not get it, I expect Andrade to take over with volume and wrestling/takedowns and eventually finish her. Lemos makes a good GPP if she finds that early finish. Andrade should hit value in any win and is safe for cash and GPP.
My Pick: Andrade
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less
