Drake's Takes: UFC Vegas 71 Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

Drake's Takes: UFC Vegas 71 Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.

The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 71 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.

Batgerel Danaa (12-4-0) v. Brady Hiestand (6-2-0)

Danaa Batgerel - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins

Brady Hiestand - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight comes down to whether Heistand can enforce takedowns and keep this fight on the mat, as he likely gets pieced up on the feet. There will be plenty of chances for Danaa to record a knock-out, netting him some decent points for DFS.

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Danaa 

Priscila Cachoeira (12-4-0) v. Karine Silva (15-4-0)

Priscila Cachoeira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins

Karine Silva - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be an entertaining back-and-forth fight for as long as it lasts. Both ladies are killers and will be hunting for a finish right out of the gates. The fight will be close on the feet, but Silva will have a significant edge on the mat. Silva is my pick with more ways to win, and I expect her to score well. 

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Silva

Francis Marshall (7-0-0) v. William Gomis (11-2-0)

Francis Marshall - Height: 5'9 - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins

William Gomis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a fun fight between two up-and-coming prospects. Marshall will have the edge on the mat, while Gomis will have the edge on the feet. This should come down to whether or not Marshall gets this to the mat. If he attempts to strike with Gomis, he likely gets knocked out. In such a close fight, I prefer the dog. 

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Gomis

Mohammed Usman (8-2-0) v. Junior Tafa (4-0-0)

Mohammed Usman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins

Junior Tafa - Height: 6'3" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 0 wins

DFS Perspective: Tafa will be making his UFC debut, and I expect this fight to be a slower-paced striking match. If Usman picks up his volume, I would give him a slight edge, but I see Tafa out-striking him 2-1 if this goes to the judges. Without a finish, I do not expect a high score.

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Tafa

Karol Rosa (16-4-0) v. Norma Dumont (8-2-0)

Karol Rosa - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 16 wins

Norma Dumont - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 8 wins

DFS Perspective: This should be another close fight. I expect a lot of clinches and kicks to be thrown. Dumont is the more defensive fighter and looks to control the ring, while Rosa tends to push forward with more volume. The fight should go to a decision with Rosa having more volume and damage done.

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Rosa

Rani Yahya (28-10-1) v. Montel Jackson (12-2-0)

Rani Yahya - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 28 wins

Montel Jackson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins

DFS Perspective: Jackson should dominate everywhere this fight goes, particularly on the feet. Yahya will be looking to force takedowns and submit Jackson but likely struggles with Jackson's size and defensive grappling. Additionally, Jackson is the highest-priced fighter on the slate and could have trouble hitting value outside of the first round.

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Jackson

Ricky Glenn (22-6-2) v. Christos Giagos (19-10-0)

Ricky Glenn - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins

Christos Giagos - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins

DFS Perspective: Giagos can keep this fight close if he is the one shooting for takedowns and keeping control on the mat. Glenn will have an edge on the feet but is also solid on the mat. The winner of this fight should score well, and the slight lean is to the favorite. 

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Glenn

Jeremiah Wells (11-2-1) v. Matt Semelsberger (11-4-0)

Jeremiah Wells - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Moderate volume 
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins

Matthew Semelsberger - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a fast-paced striking match for as long as it lasts. Semelsberger has the size advantage, but Wells should be better everywhere else. One of these guys should record a knockout and score well for their respective pricing. 

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Wells

Iasmin Lucindo (13-5-0) v. Brogan Walker (7-3-0)

Iasmin Lucindo - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins

Brogan Walker - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 1 finishes in 7 wins

DFS Perspective: I expect Lucinco to be better everywhere in this fight. Walker was rag-dolled in his UFC debut, and Lucindo should continue that trend. Lucindo will have a massive edge on the feet, and an early knockout is definitely in play. 

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Lucindo

Bobby Green (29-14-1) v. Jared Gordon (19-6-0)

Bobby Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume 
~ Plus wrestling
~ 18 finishes in 29 wins

Jared Gordon - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 19 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight should be closer than the odds indicate. Green is the better striker and will put out more volume, but Gordon will have the advantage with strength and could chain takedowns. Gordon should be able to keep this fight close on the feet. I expect he can run away with rounds sprinkling in takedowns and control. 

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Gordon

Brad Tavares (19-7-0) v. Bruno Silva (22-8-0)

Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 19 wins

Bruno Silva - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins

DFS Perspective: This is a Silva or pass for DFS. Tavares is low-volume and almost always scores low in a win. Add his price on top of that, and he can be taken out of pools entirely. Silva makes for an intriguing play with his power upside. He will also have an edge in volume. Any win for him should net him solid value at his price point.

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Silva

Sergei Pavlovich (17-1-0) v. Curtis Blaydes (17-3-0)

Sergei Pavlovich - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 84" - Southpaw
~ High volume 
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 17 wins

Curtis Blaydes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins

DFS Perspective: This fight should go one of two ways: Pavlovich does what he does best and overwhelms Blaydes in the first round for a knockout, or Blaydes finds success with his takedowns and cuts Pavlovich up with his elbows. I prefer the former. I have been and will continue to ride Pavlovich all the way to the top. He should shatter value as the dog on DraftKings with a win.

UFC Vegas 71 Pick: Pavlovich

 

For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 71 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.

FANDUEL MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.

DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Drake Burden plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Dburdz, DraftKings: Dburdz.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Drake Burden
Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities.
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