This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 71 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (17-3-0, 1NC) v. Sergei Pavlovich (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Blaydes ($8,800), Pavlovich ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Blaydes (-165), Pavlovich (+140)
Odds to Finish: -900
Now 32 years of age, Blaydes has been excellent in his seven-plus years with the UFC. He's lost just three times. Two of the defeats came against Francis Ngannou and once was a knockout at the hands of Derrick Lewis. Five of Blaydes' last six fights have been "Fight Night" main events. Curtis has yet to receive a title shot, but he's right on the fringe of earning one and could conceivably earn an opportunity with an impressive win over Pavlovich.
That win won't come easy, however. Pavlovich suffered a first-round knockout loss to Alistair Overeem in his UFC debut in November 2018. He's won five in a row since, all via knockout, and all in Round 1. As one would guess by that statistic, Pavlovich's power is ridiculous. He doesn't need to hit you flush in order to put you out for good.
Other than perhaps Jon Jones, Blaydes is probably the best athlete in the heavyweight division. He's certainly the best wrestler in the division, averaging 6.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. Curtis rarely absorbs a ton of punishment because he's often controlling his opposition on the mat for a good portion of his bouts. I expect a wrestling-heavy game plan from Blaydes. Pavlovich has been taken down just once in the UFC, and that came against Overeem. It should be noted, however, that Sergei has primarily gone up against one-dimensional brawlers thus far.
We have yet to see Pavlovich get forced to grapple for an extended period of time. Heck, we have yet to see him fight for an extended period of time, period. As is typically the case with most heavy-hitting strikers, my guess is his wrestling/grappling game is probably better than most think, but certainly not on the level of Blaydes, or anywhere close to it.
A prolonged fight certainly favors Curtis, while Pavlovich would be wise to do whatever is necessary to end this fight immediately, which is how he operates anyway. In additional to being a great wrestler, Blaydes has one of the best gas tanks in the division.
The gap in DK salaries here seems quite large, but it makes sense. As much power as Pavlovich has, his path to victory in this fight is extremely narrow. He's never going to outpoint Curtis for 25 minutes, and while all three of Blaydes' defeats have come via knockout, I wouldn't say he has durability issues.
Sergei makes sense as a "punt" DK play because the upside is high, but I think it's more likely Curtis quickly pins him to the mat, tires him out, and either finishes him off or takes a lopsided decision. Blaydes' cardio is one of the heavyweight division's greatest equalizers.
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Blaydes
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Brad Tavares (19-8-0) v. Bruno Silva (22-8-0)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($8,900), Silva ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (-185), Silva (+150)
Odds to Finish: -150
A member of the UFC roster for more than 13 years now, Tavares is 14-7 in 21 bouts with the company. A good chunk of his defeats have come against high-end competition -- names such as Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero. Tavares had a brief two-fight winning streak snapped in a unanimous decision defeat to the Dricus Du Plessis last July. Now 35 years of age and 2-3 in his past five fights, Tavares doesn't have much room for error moving forward.
Silva finds himself in an even bigger hole. The hard-hitting Brazilian joined the company in June 2021 and immediately picked up three straight knockout wins over Wellington Turman, Andrew Sanchez and Jordan Wright. He followed that up with an understandable unanimous decision defeat to former UFC Middleweight Champion Alex Pereira, only to no-show a submission defeat to Gerald Meerschaert in his most recent bout last August. The Meerschaert result was highly concerning. Silva looked awful, generating no offense of his own before tapping out to a guillotine choke early in Round 3. He better show up ready to fight against Tavares, or his losing streak is going to hit three.
All that said, this looks like a good stylistic matchup for Silva. Both of these guys are comfortable in brawls. Neither offers much in terms of grappling, averaging less than a single takedown per 15 minutes. If this devolves into a back-and-forth slugfest, Silva clearly has the power advantage, in addition to the edge in terms of durability. He's never been stopped via strikes in 30 professional fights.
Backing Silva following the Meerschaert debacle is legitimately terrifying. Tavares is tough as nails, and he's going to eat Bruno up if he doesn't show up in shape ready for fight for 15 minutes.
Brad can beat Silva blindfolded if we don't see significant improvement from the latter, but there's enough value on Silva for me to roll with the underdog. Tavares is unlikely to try and wrestle for an extended period of time, and Bruno is theoretically a more accomplished striker.
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Silva
Lightweight
Bobby Green (29-14-1) v. Jared Gordon (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Green ($9,400), Gordon ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Green (-275), Gordon (+210)
Odds to Finish: +175
Green continues to go about his business, losing more fights than he wins while still putting forth a solid performance here and there. He dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions to Thiago Moises and Rafael Fiziev before knocking out Al Iaquinta and taking a unanimous decision over Nasrat Haqparast. He followed up those two wins with knockout losses to Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober in his two most recent bouts. Defeats to names such as Moises, Fiziev and Makhachev are entirely understandable. Heck, Islam is probably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world at this point. The bottom line is that the UFC has to be careful regarding who they put Green up against moving forward. This matchup is for more reasonable for all parties involved, although Green has already announced he plans on retiring following the fight, regardless of the end result.
Gordon's resume reads similarly to Green. His 5-3 record in his past eight fights is mediocre, but the defeats have come against Charles Oliveira, Grant Dawson and Paddy Pimblett. It's absolutely worth noting that the Pimblett decision -- a split-decision loss for Gordon is his most recent bout last December -- was a joke. He absolutely deserved to win that fight.
Green's downfall has long been his unwillingness to engage his opposition in anything other than a wild brawl. He has supreme confidence in his hands, but his grappling has long been underrated, and it would have been interesting to see how his career may have turned out if he diversified his attacks just a bit more. Sadly, it appears as if we will never get to see that.
Gordon has been with Kill Cliff FC (formerly Sanford MMA) for the past few years. He trains with the likes of Kamaru Usman, Michael Chandler, Gilbert Burns and Shavkat Rakhmonov on a daily basis. Not surprisingly, Gordon is a solid fundamental fighter with no significant holes in his game. The fact he has just a single knockout victory in a dozen UFC bouts is concerning, but he's not going to beat himself inside the Octagon.
This one is real simple. There's no way the soon-to-be 37-year-old Bobby Green should be $2,600 more than any other opponent at this stage of his career. Sure, maybe he gets a bump knowing this is the last fight, but the value is entirely on Gordon here, even more so than in the co-main event with Silva. This is an easy pick regardless of the end result.
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Gordon
Lightweight
Rick Glenn (22-6-2) v. Christos Giagos (19-10-0)
DK Salaries: Glenn ($9,000), Giagos ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Glenn (-175), Giagos (+145)
Odds to Finish: +110
A professional for nearly 17 years, Glenn is one of the MMA's truly underrated veterans. He had a long run in the WSOF (now PFL), where he won the WSOF Featherweight Championship way back in June 2014. He made his UFC debut about two years later and has posted a 4-3-1 mark in eight fights with the company.
Fresh off back-to-back first-round stoppage defeats, Giagos is likely fighting for his job on Saturday. He's in the midst of his second stint with the company, having posted a 4-4 mark since returning in September 2018. It's worth noting that two of those four defeats came against Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, two of the best the lightweight division has to offer.
Glenn is your typical brawler, the type of guy that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. He lacks ideal athleticism, although I've always found his power to be a bit underrated. He's seen it all in this sport and you get an honest effort from Glenn each and every time he steps into the Octagon. He's not going to beat himself in there.
Giagos has always been extremely reliant on his wrestling. Averaging 3.21 takedowns per 15 minutes, he struggles if he isn't able to get his opposition to the mat. He's also had all sorts of issues defending submissions, with five of his ten career losses coming via tap out.
I expect Glenn to try to go out there and drag Giagos into deep waters. Glenn's takedown defense is a middling 68 percent, and he's been forced to the mat at least twice in four of his eight bouts with the company. There's most definitely a scenario in which Giagos is able to ground him long enough to win a decision.
When all is said and done, I don't have a strong feeling regarding this fight one way or the other. Glenn's all-around arsenal should be enough to get the job done if he remains upright, but it's far from a guarantee. Neither projects as an attractive DraftKings play.
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Glenn
Other Bouts
Women's Flyweight
Iasmin Lucindo (13-5-0) v. Brogan Walker (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Lucindo ($9,500), Walker ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Lucindo (-300), Walker (+240)
Odds to Finish: +160
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Lucindo
Welterweight
Jeremiah Wells (11-2-1) v. Matthew Semelsberger (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Wells ($8,400), Semelsberger ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Wells (-115), Semelsberger (-105)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Wells
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya (28-10-0, 1NC) v. Montel Jackson (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Yahya ($6,500), Jackson ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Yahya (+430), Jackson (-600)
Odds to Finish: -210
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Jackson
Women's Featherweight
Karol Rosa (16-4-0) v. Norma Dumont (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rosa ($7,900), Dumont ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Rosa (-105), Dumont (-115)
Odds to Finish: +220
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Rosa
Heavyweight
Mohammed Usman (9-2-0) v. Junior Tafa (4-0-0)
DK Salaries: Usman ($8,000), Tafa ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Usman (-110), Tafa (-110)
Odds to Finish: -350
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Usman
Featherweight
Francis Marshall (7-0-0) v. William Gomis (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Marshall ($9,200), Gomis ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Marshall (-210), Gomis (+170)
Odds to Finish: -105
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Marshall
Women's Flyweight
Priscila Cachoeira (12-4-0) v. Karine Silva (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Cachoeira ($7,100), Silva ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Cachoeira (+160), Silva (-190)
Odds to Finish: -215
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Silva
Bantamweight
Brady Hiestand (7-2-0) v. Danaa Batgerel (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Hiestand ($7,500), Danaa ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Hiestand (+115), Danaa (-140)
Odds to Finish: -200
UFC VEGAS 71 PICK: Hiestand
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Kansas City with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
