This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
After a weekend off, the UFC is back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 97 on Saturday, September 7. The event is headlined by a welterweight bout between Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 97 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Sean Brady (16-1) vs. Gilbert Burns (22-7)
For my favorite, I'm backing Sean Brady to defeat Gilbert Burns in the main event of UFC Vegas 97.
This is another step up in competition for Brady, and the last time he took a jump in the rankings, he got TKO'd by Belal Muhammad. Of course, that loss has aged well.
In this fight, Brady is the better pure wrestler and is very strong. While Burns does have great jiu-jitsu, Brady's submission defense is great. On the feet, both Brady and Burns are average strikers, but Burns' chin has been an issue, as he is coming off a KO loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
Although Brady doesn't have a ton of power, I do like him to be able to out-wrestle Burns and control the fight to edge out a decision here.
UFC Vegas 97 Bet: Sean Brady (-180)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Kyle Nelson (16-5-1) vs. Steve Garcia (16-5)
Kyle Nelson was supposed to take on Calvin Kattar, but Kattar was forced to withdraw. On about a month's notice, Steve Garcia stepped up. Garcia is the betting favorite, but I like Nelson to get the win as the underdog at UFC Vegas 97.
Nelson is on a three-fight winning streak and coming off a first-round knockout win over Bill Algeo. Although Garcia has looked good as of late, as he's on a four-fight knockout streak, I have some doubts about him.
If Garcia can't get Nelson out of there early, I worry about his cardio at featherweight, especially on short notice. Nelson also has power in his hands, and Garcia has been susceptible to the knockout in the past, as we saw him get knocked out in 74 seconds in June of 2022.
To me, this is a pick'em fight, as both have the ability to knock the other out, but the longer the fight goes, the better it is for Nelson. I'll take the dog shot on Nelson, as I trust his chin to survive the first round and take over in the second and third rounds to get the win.
UFC Vegas 97 Bet: Kyle Nelson (+154)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Gabriel Santos (10-2) vs. Yi Zha (25-4)
For my prop bet at UFC Vegas 97, I'm taking the featherweight fight between Gabriel Santos and Yi Zha to go over 2.5 rounds.
Santos is 0-2 in the UFC, but fought Lerone Murphy to a split and then was knocked out by David Onama, who is a hard-hitter. Zha, meanwhile, is 0-1 in the UFC with a decision loss. He wasn't set to get another fight after that but won on Road to the UFC to earn his way back.
The way both Santos and Zha win most of their fights is via the submission. However, both are really good grapplers, and I don't expect either to be able to finish the other.
On the feet, Santos is the better striker, but both have good chins and neither has a ton of power. I expect this fight to have plenty of scrambles on the ground and likely go the distance, but the over 2.5 rounds is a safer play here.
UFC Vegas 97 Bet: Gabriel Santos-Yi Zha over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Weight Classes: Straweight & Lightweight
Jaqueline Amorim (8-1) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (11-5)
Rong Zhu (25-5) vs. Chris Padilla (14-6)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 97, I'm taking Jaqueline Amorim and Rong Zhu to get their hands raised Saturday.
Amorim takes on Vanessa Demopoulos, who is 5-2 in the UFC, but three of her wins are controversial decisions that went her way. She could just as easily be 2-5 and likely not in the UFC. Demopoulos is known for her grappling, but Amorim is the better grappler in this matchup. On the feet, Demopoulos has a negative striking differential, as she absorbs 5.69 significant strikes per minute.
I expect Amorim to be able to land the better shots on the feet and be able to control Demopoulos on the ground en route to either a submission or a decision win.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Rong Zhu to defeat Chris Padilla. Padilla is coming off an upset win in his UFC debut, while Zhu is back in the UFC after a 1-2 run in 2021-22. During that time away, he won four straight fights.
Zhu should be able to use his defensive wrestling to keep this fight standing, where he is the much better striker. He lands 5.47 significant strikes per minute, while Padilla is there to be hit (absorbing 4.18). I like Zhu to land some big shots and finish the fight via ground-and-pound in the first or second round.
UFC Vegas 97 Bet: Jaqueline Amorim & Rong Zhu (-118)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 97 card.
- Sean Brady (-180)
- Kyle Nelson (+154)
- Gabriel Santos-Yi Zha over 2.5 rounds (-160)
- Jaqueline Amorim & Rong Zhu parlay (-118)
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