A handful of large favorites make the UFC 290 card difficult to play from gambling and DFS perspectives, but we can still carve out ways to profit in both formats. We'll take a look at every fight across four platforms, including a short-notice replacement who is always ready to go, and a legend of the sport looking for one last knockout. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Yazmin Jauregui ($9,300)
Denise Gomes was able to rally in her UFC debut against Bruna Brasil, but large portions of that fight featured Gomes' inability to shake her opponent in clinch situations. Jauregui is a far better shot-wrestler than Brasil and can put combinations together in a way that should allow her to dictate the pace and location of the contest.
Brandon Moreno ($8,600)
Alexandre Pantoja's past victories over Moreno (one which is technically considered an exhibition) will likely have prospective owners flocking to him for salary reduction. However, many things have changed in the game of "The Assassin Baby" since the two last met in 2018, including crisper boxing, better defense, and an improved ability to scramble. Pantoja remains a dangerous opponent but wasn't able to keep up with the pace of a grappler like Askar Askarov for 15 minutes. I expect a similar scenario will play out here, as Moreno has even more tools to frustrate "The Cannibal."
Jimmy Crute ($8,000)
A coinflip is the only way to line this rematch, as Crute looked like he would control Alonzo Menifield with his wrestling early before the far more athletic and powerful "Atomic" put enough damage on Crute to force the draw. While the threat of the knockout will loom large as a result, I still have to go with "The Brute," who was able to secure six takedowns and nearly nine minutes of control time in the contest. Crute has looked more hittable as his UFC career has progressed, but I will bet on the wrestling skill set of the Australian over the ability of Menifield to land a big shot.
Esteban Ribovics ($8,500)
Ribovics should have much more freedom to showcase his slick ground game here than he did in his UFC debut against Loik Radzhabov, who can be a suffocating grappler from top position. It was clear from the outset that Kamuela Kirk didn't know how to handle the constant pressure of Damon Jackson, and Ribovics should apply a similar style of attack. The scrambles in this one may give heartburn to owners on both sides, but I ultimately expect Ribovics to use his wrestling and be the better fighter on the ground.
Vitor Petrino ($9,000)
You could be forgiven for thinking that Petrino was ready to run out of gas in his UFC debut, as Anton Turkalj seemed intent on grinding the musclebound Brazilian fighter in the clinch. Not only did Petrino weather this storm, but he ultimately outgrappled his opponent, ending Round 3 in full mount. If we throw out his last fight against a fighter in William Knight that looked uninterested in competing, Pracnio has been bested by physically stronger opponents who can wrestle. It's worth noting that Petrino is a devastating striker by trade, which means he should be able to win this fight however he likes.
Robert Whittaker ($9,100)
Whittaker has used his wrestling much more frequently of late, as evidenced by the nine takedowns he has notched in his last three fights. Dricus Du Plessis is so sloppy and unstructured in his striking that it wouldn't be surprising if "The Repear" just picked him apart, but a more varied game would likely serve him well against this type of opponent, who hits incredibly hard and has shown issues with cardio in the past.
Bo Nickal ($9,800)
Nickal should get Val Woodburn to the ground in short order during the first of our "Why does this fight exist?" bouts on this card, as "The Animal" makes a habit of swinging himself into the clinch with wide shots. Woodburn likely has enough jiujitsu to defend on the ground initially, but I see this as a multiple takedown performance that ends in the first round, which could lead to a solid ROI at this price.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Jesus Aguilar UNDER 2.0 Takedowns, Tatsuro Taira UNDER 1.5 Takedowns, and Alexander Volkanovski OVER 3.0 Takedowns
Much was made of the short reach of Aguilar in his UFC debut, and while he will be at another significant reach disadvantage against Shannon Ross, the speed and countering ability of "The Turkish Delight" will make it difficult for Aguilar to get on the inside. Though it would likely benefit him, Aguilar doesn't always use his wrestling to get to grappling situations and is comfortable wrapping something from a clinch position or pulling guard.
Taira is another fighter who has used his wrestling sparingly, preferring instead to floor his opponent with strikes before swooping in for a submission. The Japanese fighter will likely use his frame and power against Edgar Chairez, who attempts to make fights messy by swinging wild power strikes.
Opponent selection has made it difficult for Volkanovski to use his wrestling of late, but I suspect "The Great" will want to get back to how he made his name in the organization against a dynamic and fast striker like Yair Rodriguez. The bantamweight champion has notched three or more takedowns five times in his UFC career, while Rodriguez was taken down three times apiece by Max Holloway and Jeremy Stephens, two fighters certainly not known for their wrestling prowess.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Terrence Mitchell – 2.35 X Multiplier
Cameron Saaiman thrives in brawls, during which he attempts to use his defense and toughness to come out on top in exchanges. This should prove difficult against Mitchell, who will carry a reach advantage of seven inches into the matchup. Mitchell is an athletic fighter who is no stranger to grappling, which could leave Saaimon unable to take over this bout the way we have seen him do in the past.
Jalin Turner – 1.8 X Multiplier
Turner's multiplier seems a bit generous here, as the more athletic, faster, and more powerful fighter should be able to have his way with the comparatively stiff competitor from New Zealand on the feet. It's not very often Hooker is at the wrong end of the height and reach equation, but Turner being the more skilled fighter while possessing the more advantageous physical attributes should swing this bout in his favor quickly.
Robbie Lawler – 2.25 X Multiplier
Lawler being ground down by the unrelenting offense of Bryan Barberena made me apprehensive about this pick, but it strikes me that Price is far more hurtable than "Bam Bam," as evidenced by the four KO/TKOs that he counts among his six losses. "Ruthless" will undoubtedly need to eat some big shots here, but I think Lawler is the one more likely to melt than be melted in this one, as Price will allow himself to be backed up against the cage.
Bets to Consider
Jack Della Maddalena wins via submission (+400)
It's difficult to know exactly how to play the bigger favorites on this card, but a submission win by Della Maddalena, while sneaky, would not be entirely unexpected. Josiah Harrell tends to throw himself into clinch positions looking for grappling exchanges, despite the fact that he was largely controlled on the ground before an illegal knee gave him a reprieve against Tracy Reeder. Della Maddalena is incredibly strong for the weight class and has two rear-naked chokes on his record, making this a worthwhile shot for the price.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 290 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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