It's not very often we get a fight card with just 10 bouts on it, but we still have plenty of interesting angles to take to potentially make a profit. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including an incredibly active underdog, and two knockout props that may be too juiced to pass up. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Karl Williams ($9,000)
It's hard not to love Williams in this spot, as Jhonata Diniz was taken down and controlled by a former football player in Austen Lane and only gained the upper hand in the fight when Lane predictably got tired from doing something so unfamiliar. Williams will not have this problem, as he has scored 16 takedowns in his first three UFC bouts. Diniz is incredibly dangerous on the feet, but Williams has never been knocked out in 11 professional fights. Even if he needs to weather a bit of an early storm, he will likely get this fight where he wants it and has the gas tank to get over the finish line.
Marcin Tybura ($7,900)
This may be the most egregious of the unnecessary rematches the UFC has booked of late, as the first fight between Tybura and Serghei Spivac in 2020 went to a fairly uneventful decision. I'm picking the Polish fighter to get it done again, as he seems to be the stronger grappler in this matchup and swings with enough power to make "The Polar Bear" hesitant. This would be enough to favor "Tybur," but when we consider this is Spivac's first fight since an incredibly flat performance against Ciryl Gane in September, it becomes much easier to side with the slight underdog.
Chelsea Chandler ($7,800)
Chandler is so wild and unstructured at range that it's tempting to pick against her. The problem is that Yana Santos has been outmuscled and controlled on the ground by fighters like Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira, and Chander is big for the weight class. Santos is a solid kickboxer, but her lack of finishing ability makes it likely that Chandler will be able to get into the clinch and assert her advantage.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Youssef Zalal UNDER 45.5 Significant Strikes, Karol Rosa OVER 70.5 Significant Strikes, and Stephanie Luciano UNDER 69.5 Significant Strikes
Zalal is a competent kickboxer but tends to get uncomfortable when pressured, which leads "The Morrocan Devil" to rely on his grappling. Jarno Errens is an aggressive and ferocious puncher, with two knockdowns in his first three UFC fights. This will give Zalal all the reason in the world to use his strength and grappling ability to control this fight for three rounds.
Rosa and Pannie Kianzad are incredibly active strikers, having landed 6.34 significant strikes per minute and 4.74 significant strikes per minute in their UFC careers, respectively. While both ladies will resort to wrestling when appropriate, they are likely to find they are most comfortable swinging in the pocket, resulting in high significant strike totals on both sides.
Luciano's fight with Talita Alencar on the Contender Series was close until her opponent gassed out due to a tremendous amount of wrestling. This led to "Rodinha" landing a whopping 54 significant strikes in Round 3. I don't expect this feat to be duplicated, as Alencar showed much better energy awareness in her win over Rayanne Amanda in December. More controlled grappling should lead to more 50/50 positions against the fence, which will work to keep strike totals low.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Charalampos Grigoriou UNDER 10.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Danny Barlow OVER 10.5 Minutes of Fight Time
I see the building blocks of a decent fighter in Toshiomi Kazama, but the Japanese competitor has rushed headlong in the pocket, looking to brawl in each of his first two UFC fights. Grigoriou has finished six of his eight professional wins by KO/TKO while also being finished by strikes in his only stoppage loss against Christian Rodriguez in 2021. It's not uncommon to see growth after someone takes losses as badly as Kazama has, but I don't think either man will be able to resist swinging for the fences here.
Barlow took a bit longer than expected to knock out Josh Quinlan, despite a dominant performance that saw him land almost three times as many significant strikes. This has caused me to rethink my position on the line, as Nikolay Veretennikov is a cautious pressure fighter who hasn't suffered a KO/TKO loss in nearly a decade. I fully expect Barlow to take control of this fight behind long and powerful punches, but Veretennikov should be able to hang on and hear the final bell.
Bets to Consider
Chris Gutierrez Wins via KO/TKO (+215)
The first thing that needs to be noted for DraftKings players is Gutierrez remains at his original price from when he was a sizeable underdog to Javid Basharat, so he needs to be used in all formats in his bout against replacement Quang Le. For those who want to go a different route, Martinez should feel incredibly comfortable in this matchup, as Le likes to hold the center of the cage but doesn't check leg kicks. We've seen Martinez get TKOs via leg kicks in the past, but even if they don't directly lead to the stoppage, Martinez should have a badly damaged fighter in front of him at some point.
Jose Mariscal Wins via KO/TKO (+225)
Damon Jackson is in his element when he finds a matchup that will let him dominate on the ground. However, Mariscal has never had much of a problem with wrestlers who will push a pace, as we saw in his fight with Jack Jenkins. "The Leech" will be left wide open in front of a powerful striker if he is unable to get this fight to the ground, a situation we have seen much less powerful punchers than "Chepe" take full advantage of.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 95 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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