This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 97 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 97 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Zygimantas Ramaska (9-2-0) v. Nathan Fletcher (8-1-0)
Zygimantas Ramaska - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Nathan Fletcher - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a battle of The Ultimate Fighter Contenders that was supposed to happen a couple of weeks ago but was canceled due to a medical issue for Fletcher. Both guys are solid on the mat, but Ramaska has a considerable edge on the feet, which should be the difference in this fight. This should be an excellent fight to target for DFS, as someone is likely to get finished.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Ramaska
Andre Petroski (11-3-0) v. Dylan Budka (7-3-0)
Andre Petroski - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
Dylan Budka - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: I envision Budka having little success in this fight. Petroski is levels above him everywhere and should have his way with him. If there were a concern for Petroski, it would be his cardio, but I do not see it being a big issue.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Petroski
Jaqueline Amorim (8-1-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (11-5-0)
Jaqueline Amorim - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Vanessa Demopoulos - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 59" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Demopoulos continues to scrape by with wins she likely should not have gotten. Amorim is easily the toughest opponent she has faced, and her two-fight winning streak should come to an end. Amorim can win this fight standing up or on the mat. With eight finishes in eight wins, I expect her to dominate Demopoulos and put up a solid DFS score.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Amorim
Gabriel Santos (10-2-0) v. Yizha (25-4-0)
Gabriel Santos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Yi Zha - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Santos has lost both of his UFC fights, while Yizha lost his only fight. However, Yizha has now won five Road to UFC fights and will receive another shot at UFC glory. Aside from power, Yizha should have nothing to fear going into this fight. I expect several grappling exchanges, with Yizha winning the majority. This fight should yield a solid DFS score, and Yizha should come out on top.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Yizha
Andre Lima (9-0-0) v. Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0)
Andre Lima - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Felipe dos Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Lima won his debut via DQ and then had a boring split decision in his second fight. He will get smashed if we get the same Lima in this fight. Dos Santos is far and away the better all-around fighter. However, neither guy has scored well for DFS, so this fight is strictly GPP.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Dos Santos
Isaac Dulgarian (6-1-0) v. Brendon Marotte (8-2-0)
Isaac Dulgarian - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Brendon Marotte - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds are beyond inflated in this fight in favor of Dulgarian. I fully expect him to win and to do so with an early finish. However, he is overpriced and would likely need a quick-win bonus to hit value. Marotte is a solid play for cash if you think he manages to last three rounds, and he would decimate value in any type of win.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Dulgarian
Rong Zhu (25-5-0) v. Chris Padilla (14-6-0)
Rong Zhu - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 25 wins
Chris Padilla - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Zhu makes his long-awaited return to the UFC after a successful run on the Road to the UFC. He is still just 24 and is primed to make a deep run into the UFC rankings. Padilla surprised many with this debut win as a considerable underdog. His grappling is solid, but the rest of his game still needs refining. I expect Zhu to put on a show and dominate this fight.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Zhu
Trevor Peek (9-2-0) v. Yanal Ashmouz (7-1-0)
Trevor Peek - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Yanal Ashmouz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a banger for as long as it lasts. Both guys have considerable power and love applying forward pressure. Peek will likely be the one pushing forward most often, which could get him knocked out, but he has shown incredible toughness against some heavy hitters already. Both guys will have their chances, but I expect Peek to get this done. This fight is another excellent fight to target for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Peek
Matt Schnell (16-8-0) v. Cody Durden (16-6-1)
Matt Schnell - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Cody Durden - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight came together on short notice as Schnell's original opponent dropped out. It is a much more difficult fight for Schnell, as he will likely get backpacked the entire fight. His best chance will be to light Durden up early and get him out of there. However, I expect Durden to employ his usual strategy of chaining takedowns and controlling the fight for 15 minutes.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Durden
Kyle Nelson (16-5-1) v. Steve Garcia (16-5-0)
Kyle Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Steve Garcia - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Kyle Nelson is riding an unlikely three-fight winning streak, with his most recent win being the most impressive with a first-round knockout. Garcia is riding a winning streak of his own at four games and will likely be the victor to make it five. This fight will likely be close until someone goes to sleep, and that someone should be Nelson. Garcia makes another solid play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Garcia
Jessica Andrade (26-12-0) v. Natalia Silva (17-5-1)
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 26 wins
Natalia Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: The line and the pricing would indicate that Andrade is not at Silva's level. I have to completely disagree. Silva has not faced anyone with power like Andrade, and she also likely faces a disadvantage with speed. I am not ready to write off a fighter as great as Andrade and fully expect her to finish this fight early. She is my favorite dog to play on the slate for DFS.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Andrade
Gilbert Burns (22-7-0) v. Sean Brady (16-1-0)
Gilbert Burns - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins
Sean Brady - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Burns will need to be at his absolute best to win this fight. Unfortunately for him, I see this going the same way as his last two fights. Brady should be better everywhere except potentially BJJ. Brady is out for blood, and I expect him to show up huge.
UFC Vegas 97 Pick: Brady
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
