THIS IS THE SEVENTH EDITION OF THE SCRAP HEAP ARTICLE for the RotoWire magazine. I always consider this article the leadoff hitter for the baseball writing season. It focuses on what could be rather than what transpired in the previous weeks or months. I'm rather proud of this column because it has a good track record of hitting some home runs in recommending players overlooked by many fantasy players. Two seasons ago, it recommended Yandy Diaz, Lance Lynn, Jeff Samardzija and Jake Odorizzi as strong buy lows. Last year, it recommended Brandon Nimmo, Corbin Burnes, Kyle Tucker and JaCoby Jones.
Winning a fantasy baseball league, much like hitting a baseball, is the hardest thing to do in fantasy sports. Trust me — I'm 0-for-14 in my pursuit of winning a Tout Wars title. Winning a fantasy league during 2020 had an increased level of difficulty with COVID-19's impact on players opting out, players needing to quarantine, players getting a late start to the season, etc. We saw some players never get it going in 2020 due to the disruption to their routine, while others seemingly came out of nowhere to have amazing seasons. In a normal season, recency bias is always something to deal with, but it will be rather omnipresent in the coming months.
When you are that invested in the players on your teams, it is only natural to get frustrated with them when they do not perform. We get angry with players
THIS IS THE SEVENTH EDITION OF THE SCRAP HEAP ARTICLE for the RotoWire magazine. I always consider this article the leadoff hitter for the baseball writing season. It focuses on what could be rather than what transpired in the previous weeks or months. I'm rather proud of this column because it has a good track record of hitting some home runs in recommending players overlooked by many fantasy players. Two seasons ago, it recommended Yandy Diaz, Lance Lynn, Jeff Samardzija and Jake Odorizzi as strong buy lows. Last year, it recommended Brandon Nimmo, Corbin Burnes, Kyle Tucker and JaCoby Jones.
Winning a fantasy baseball league, much like hitting a baseball, is the hardest thing to do in fantasy sports. Trust me — I'm 0-for-14 in my pursuit of winning a Tout Wars title. Winning a fantasy league during 2020 had an increased level of difficulty with COVID-19's impact on players opting out, players needing to quarantine, players getting a late start to the season, etc. We saw some players never get it going in 2020 due to the disruption to their routine, while others seemingly came out of nowhere to have amazing seasons. In a normal season, recency bias is always something to deal with, but it will be rather omnipresent in the coming months.
When you are that invested in the players on your teams, it is only natural to get frustrated with them when they do not perform. We get angry with players when they do not perform at the level of their preseason projections for a few weeks, or in some cases, an entire season. The 60-game season saw many players finish well below expectations. Greg Maddux is famously quoted as saying the best pitchers have a short-term memory and a bulletproof confidence. The same can be said for fantasy players because the best ones forget what they have recently learned while focusing on the larger body of work and taking the confidence of their research into the draft room.
While that approach may offer some momentary relief from the frustration of previous relationships with a player, it can inflict fantasy wounds with surgical precision. You may end up missing out on players that come back with successful seasons following disastrous ones because you assumed that the player would just continue to underperform, forgetting that all growth, and failure, is not linear. Those are the players I attempt to help you find each season.
Hindsight is 20/20, but look at the profits realized from players rostered in the 2020 endgame:
It would have cost $38 on draft day to accumulate this talent ($0 represents reserve round picks or not drafted at all) and these 23 players amassed $414 of roto value in standard 15-team leagues. Much focus is put on the early part of the draft, but a very small percentage of players taken early in a draft return that kind of profit. The endgame, where the downtrodden, overlooked and uncertain await, is where most leagues are won or lost.
The purpose of this recurring article in this publication is to remind everyone that there is value in drafts and auctions, and some of it gets overlooked due to recency bias. That is what creates profit in your draft or auction.
There are a variety of reasons that these players are available at little or no cost in your fantasy auction. Some are recovering from injuries. Some are coming off perceived fluke years or realistically awful years, others have landed in an unfortunate playing-time situation. In some cases, the player has no clear path to playing time during draft season due to crowded depth charts or rotations. Using those filters, let's seek out potential values for 2020 that should be cheap options to fill out your roster with the hope of earning a significant return on your investment. Each of these players went in the 20th round or later in the 15-team mixed league mock draft you'll find elsewhere in this magazine.
REBOUND FROM INJURIES
Luis Urias (IF, Milwaukee) was the key return for Milwaukee when it sent 2020 breakout star Trent Grisham as well as Zach Davies to San Diego. Urias has always hit for average in the minors, but took full advantage of El Paso and his new swing to hit for power in Triple-A. An early 2020 hamate surgery predictably impacted his ability to do either in 2020 for Milwaukee.
C.J. Cron (1B, Colorado) suffered a nasty knee injury while fielding a baseball in 2020, essentially ending his season before it began. When you study his body of work over the past three seasons, he can barrel a baseball with the best of them. If he can find an everyday job again, he could repeat 2018 level production.
Scott Kingery (LF, Philadelphia) would like to write off 2020 as much as anyone. COVID hit him hard in the summer, and then he dealt with some upper-body muscle issues that rendered him rather useless at the plate. He showed progress in 2019, enough that with a good 2020, it would have pushed his 2021 draft cost forward into the top 150. Get on board now while his price is in the back-third of drafts and you will not be disappointed.
Anthony DeSclafani (P, San Francisco) is now pitching for the club that has effectively turned castaways into serviceable pitchers in recent seasons with previous writeoffs such as Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly. "Disco" comes west after an awful 2020 in which he dealt with shoulder troubles and took a significant step back from the progress he showed in 2018 and 2019. It would not be surprising to see San Francisco take away his four-seam fastball (.323 AVG against) and have him accentuate his better pitches to rediscover his success.
ROADBLOCKED
Edward Olivares (OF, Kansas City) was traded from San Diego, where he was very much roadblocked, to Kansas City where he is still somewhat blocked by the trio of Franchy Cordero, Michael Taylor and Whit Merrifield. Olivares has shown the ability to hit with pop and utilize his speed on the bases, but he has shown some flaws during his time in the majors. Kansas City brought in Taylor to allow Olivares some time to work on things. The tools are there to have a surprisingly productive fantasy season for a continually rebuilding Royals team.
Vidal Brujan (LF, Tampa Bay) is cursed with playing in the shadows of the top prospect in all of baseball, yet is quite deserving of his own shadow. Brujan could be a top prospect in many organizations, and could even start for some in 2021. He is currently blocked by Brandon Lowe's occupation of second base, but the club feels he can play both middle infield positions and has given him some time in the outfield as well. The path to an everyday job in 2021 is there should Tampa Bay continue its roster tinkering.
Jonathan India (UT, Cincinnati) is coming off two consecutive seasons of dealing with injuries; first a nagging wrist issue in 2019 and then a lat issue in 2020. He was a top-five amateur selection two seasons ago but has no obvious path to playing time in Cincinnati. What he does have is defensive versatility that allows him to play third, second and left field. That versatility opens up options for him to join the club and make an impact in some capacity, making him an intriguing reserve pick in deeper formats.
OTHER NAMES TO WATCH
Tyler O'Neill (OF, St. Louis) has been more potential than production the past few seasons. He has raw power and speed for days but has a .229/.291/.422 line with 21 homers and six steals over 450 career plate appearances. The 2020 season saw him make progress in reducing his abysmal strikeout rate as well as cutting down on empty swings. The focus will be on the lack of results, but he showed enough progress to take one more chance on the athleticism late in 2021 drafts to see if the results finally show up.
Oscar Mercado (OF, Cleveland) was a first-teamer on the All-Struggle 2020 team. He simply never got it started in 2020 after an enticing 2019 and ended up getting sent to the alternate site by Cleveland, never to return. The track record throughout the minor leagues as well as what he did as a rookie make it way too early to push him down the rankings. He has to earn his way back up to his 2020 draft stature, but the price to get back in on the ground floor here is enticing.
A.J. Puk (P, Oakland) has dealt with both elbow and shoulder issues in recent years. The large lefty missed the 2020 season after requiring shoulder surgery, but Oakland plans on using him in its rotation in 2021. The scouting reports on him give him the full potential to be a valued asset in 2021, but the recent injury issues to his prized arm loom large enough to where he is at a discount you may not see again should he fully recover.
Jaime Barria (P, L.A. Angels) bounced back nicely from a disastrous 2019 season to quietly do some decent work for a disappointing Angels team last season. Barria's success comes from his ability to mix up his pitches to keep hitters off balance and limit hard contact, yet he is still able to strike out opposing hitters at the league average. He has hung around the fringes of the rotation the past few seasons, but the lack of a defined role creates a bargain for these skills that could very well cement a role in the back half of the rotation.
The name of the game with this grouping of players is to overlook their recent flaws or limitations and look at them for what they could be. This is bargain hunting, and just like when you are shopping for household goods, sales get your attention. Whether it be someone rebounding from physical issues, a prospect with seemingly no path to playing time or someone whose current body of work has left the marketplace underwhelmed, everyone should be considered at the right draft price. Bargains come in many forms; sometimes you get what you pay for, while other times you get what you pay for tenfold. Happy hunting!
This article appears in the 2021 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball magazine.
