Twelve games make up our main slate Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. It's absolutely loaded from a pitching standpoint, with a massive 11 of the 24 options checking in with price tags of $9,000 or greater, lead by Tarik Skubal ($11,000) who is in a smash spot against the Marlins, and should be rostered if you can figure out your offense.
The Padres (-295) are the slate's biggest favorite against the lowly Rockies, followed by Skubal's Tigers at (-210). That Detroit-Miami game unsurprisingly gives us the slate-low 7.0 run total, with four more coming in at 7.5, again, not surprising given the volume of top arms. Athletics-Reds is our only double-digit spot. Weather looks like a nonfactor for the most part. It's dry and relatively cool. Early reports show potential 20-plus mph outbound winds in San Francisco. We've been fooled by this throughout the season, but if it's confirmed by the evening, that's a clear boost.
Pitching
Dylan Cease, SD vs. COL ($9,500): You can go in 100 directions here, but Cease looks about as safe as possible, setting up for a stable cash play at worst. He just faced the Rockies in Colorado and earned 33 FanDuel points, allowing one run and four hits in 5.0 innings. The current Rockies roster is just 11-for-61 (.180) with a .581 OPS, striking out at a massive 40.0 percent rate. Of concern; Cease doesn't have a quality start in his last five outings as walks have pushed his pitch count and curtailed innings. He likely doesn't have the upside for GPPs to combat the other aces as a result.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. LAA ($8,600): Another spot where we have ample BvP success thanks to the divisional matchup. The Angels are 24-for-108 (.222) with a .745 OPS off Castillo, striking out at a 25.9 percent clip. Castillo faced the Angels back in June, and it wasn't good, as he allowed four runs in five innings. We'll have to bank on prior history and the home ballpark to assist him here, but he profiles as another stable option and is coming off his first quality start in his last five.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. CWS ($7,800): A third option with decent BvP success against a division foe. Bibee has allowed the White Sox to go 12-for-46 (.261) with a .694 OPS and 23.1 percent K rate. He's faced the White Sox twice this season, earning 31 and 32 FDP, which is borderline elite at this price if we get a repeat. Though he has only one quality start in his last eight, he's worked 5-plus innings in seven of those, potentially meaning we can stomach a lower strike out game.
Top Targets
Mookie Betts ($3,700) is surging, collecting hits in seven straight and in 11 of 12, 19 in total including four homers and 16 RBI. He's just 3-for-30 off Justin Verlander, but I'm willing to go against that, particularly if the wind is actually gusting.
Jose Ramirez ($3,900) had a seven-game hitting streak snapped last time out, but is 6-for-15 (.313) with a homer off Martin Perez and has a .390 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and .212 ISO off lefties.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 18 runs, 18 hits and four homers in his last three starts, spanning just 11.2 innings. We don't want to chase homers in Seattle, but Eugenio Suarez ($3,500) is 5-for-12 (.417) with three homers off the Angels starter. Randy Arozarena ($3,500) is 6-for-25 (.240) with three homers and has 10 hits in his last six.
Bargain Bats
Stacking the Padres Friday against Tanner Gordon is perhaps too obvious. He has a 9.33 road ERA (5.10 xFIP), allowing a .477 wOBA and 1.137 OPS to lefties and .376/.851 to righties. Give me Jackson Merrill ($3,000) as a potential overlooked option if not stacking. He's 8-for-23 (.348) with two homers in his last six games.
Brady Singer has allowed one run or less in six of his last eight starts. He also has a 5.18 road ERA (4.57 xFIP), allowing a .380 wOBA and .898 OPS to lefties. Sure, you can pay up for Nick Kurtz ($4,000), but given Singer's form, perhaps we target those splits at the lower level. Lawrence Butler ($2,900) has seven hits in his last six. JJ Bleday ($2,700) has four homers in his last six.
Stacks to Consider
Reds vs. J.T. Ginn (Athletics): Elly De La Cruz ($3,800), Noelvi Marte ($3,200), TJ Friedl ($3,000)
Ginn is getting absolutely pummeled at home, allowing a 6.64 ERA (6.32 FIP), and it's lefties who are his nemesis, as they're posting a .550 wOBA and 1.341 OPS, surrendering eight homers to 82 batters faced. That makes De La Cruz and Friedl obvious starting points. The third piece isn't as obvious. Marte doesn't allow us to further lean into that split, but gives another top-of-the-order option. Gavin Lux ($2,700) would be an interesting pivot. He'll likely still hit in the heart of the order but is hitless in his last 16 at bats.
Brewers vs. Andre Pallante (Cardinals): Christian Yelich ($3,500), Jackson Chourio ($3,500), Brice Turang ($3,300)
Pallante doesn't have hugely targetable splits and has allowed only four runs over his last two starts, spanning 11 innings. But he also allowed 22 runs in his previous four, spanning 17.0 frames and comes with a 4.91 road ERA and 4.61 FIP. We'll simply target the top three in this order that are all fairly priced. Chourio has hit safely in four straight, and Turang and Yelich in four of six.
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