This is truly one of the most difficult slates I've had to dissect. What makes it really problematic is that there are a dozen good pitchers in great spots. Not only does that make it tough to pick a pitcher, but it's just as challenging to choose bats against these guys. That's left me with a ton to think about, but let's get started with one of the best pitchers in the game!
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Pitching
Jacob deGrom, TEX at LAA ($10,300)
Paul Skenes is battling Tarik Skubal for the title of the best pitcher in baseball this season, but deGrom has been that guy at times over the last decade. Injuries have held him back from holding that crown recently, but a 2.13 ERA and 0.89 WHIP show just how special the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner can be. His consistency is truly remarkable, with deGrom allowing two runs or fewer in 14 straight starts while sporting a 1.77 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in that span. He also scored at least 16 DraftKings points in 13 of those, which should be easy to reach against the Halos. The Angels rank 26th in OBP, 29th in K rate and 22nd in wOBA.
Noah Cameron, KC vs. PIT ($8,100)
After recommending one of the most expensive arms, let's squeeze in a cheaper option to pair with him. The biggest variable for any pitcher is their opposition, and this couldn't be a better matchup. The Pirates rank 25th in K rate, 26th in runs scored, 27th in wOBA and 29th in OPS after scoring zero runs in their weekend series in Seattle. That's bad news against a breakout pitcher like Cameron, who has compiled a 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. That even includes two duds against the Yankees and Dodgers, with Cameron allowing five total runs across his other eight starts.
Other pitchers worth considering: Brady Singer (vs. MIA), Jose Berrios (at CWS), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (at MIL), Yusei Kikuchi (vs. TEX), Cristopher Sanchez (at SF)
Top Targets
Bobby Witt, KC (vs. Andrew Heaney) $5,400
Witt isn't quite performing at the MVP level we saw last season, but everything is in his favor here. The first variable is that he's at home, with Witt tallying a .322 AVG, .577 SLG and .947 OPS at Kauffman Stadium over the last three years. That's paired with some elite speed, and we didn't even mention that he has the platoon advantage against Heaney. Witt has a .343 AVG and .878 OPS against left-handers this year. Heaney isn't necessarily someone we want to exploit, but a 4.43 career ERA is nothing to write home about. If you want to stack against Heaney, Maikel Garcia ($4,400) and Salvador Perez ($3,200) also have the platoon advantage.
Tyler Freeman, COL (vs. Richard Fitts) $4,500
The Freeman-Nolan Jones swap looked strange at the time, but it looks like the Rockies finally made a wise decision. Freeman has been one of their best hitters this season, generating a .338 AVG, .422 OBP and .878 OPS. A ton of that damage has happened recently, as he's registered a .479 OBP and 1.014 OPS across his last 31 fixtures. That makes him way too cheap against a pitcher like Fitts, who has a 5.95 FIP. Stacking the Rockies is no easy task, but Hunter Goodman ($5,100) and Jordan Beck ($4,200) are the best pairings with Freeman.
Bargain Bats
Rob Refsnyder, BOS (vs. Austin Gomber) $3,700
Refsnyder has always been a sneaky option whenever the BoSox match up with a southpaw. He always hits leadoff or cleanup in these circumstances, sporting some of the best splits in baseball. In over 200 plate appearances against lefties over the last two years, Refsnyder has a .389 OBP and .937 OPS. That's impressive considering his recent form, as he's collected a .372 OBP and .917 OPS across his last 30 outings. Facing a Rockies team that ranks 30th in ERA, WHIP and xwOBA is the icing on the cake, but we'll dive into that more in the Stacks to Consider section.
Addison Barger, TOR (vs. Sean Burke) $4,100
There aren't many players with a better Statcast page than Barger. Seeing that much red is encouraging for his future, but it's starting to pay off in the present as well. He has been hitting cleanup recently against righties, compiling a .294 AVG, .605 SLG and .954 OPS across his last 33 fixtures. The best part of this matchup might be his sensational splits, as he's accrued a .278 AVG and .880 OPS against right-handed pitching this year. Burke is one of the worst right-handers on this slate, and we'll discuss that below.
Stacks to Consider
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies (Gomber): Romy Gonzalez ($4,400), Trevor Story ($4,000), Refsnyder ($3,700)
It's hard to believe how bad this Boston lineup looks right now, but that's one reason why they're the most intriguing stack on this slate. We need to find some cheap bats to pair with the elite pitching mentioned above, and stacking the Sox is a safe way to save some salary. The main reason we're willing to ride them is because they face the worst pitching staff in baseball. Gomber hasn't done much to help those atrocious averages, accumulating a 5.49 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season.
Let's kickstart our stack with Gonzalez, who has generated a .299 AVG and .880 OPS against lefties over the last three years. That OPS is above 1.100 this season, and he comes into this matchup with a 1.047 OPS across his last 17 outings. Story also has the platoon advantage against Gomber, generating a .343 AVG and .969 OPS across his previous 25 outings. That's paired with a phenomenal power-speed combo, as he's on pace for a 25-25 season.
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (Burke): Vladimir Guerrero ($5,200), George Springer ($5,000), Barger ($4,100), Alejandro Kirk ($3,800)
Toronto is quietly the hottest team in the AL right now, climbing up to the top of the AL East standings. A resurgence from the offense is a major reason why, with the Blue Jays ranked second in runs scored over the last month. That's bad news for Burke, who has produced a 4.95 xFIP and 1.40 WHIP this year.
Vlad, as one of the best hitters in baseball, has to be the first piece of this stack. His big bat been on full display recently, as he's registered a .413 OBP and .969 OPS across his last 17 outings. Springer has been even hotter than that, totaling a .545 OBP and 1.403 OPS across his last 13 games. We already mentioned Barger's fantastic form, and Kirk is one of the best options at a weak catcher position, compiling a .301 AVG and .771 OPS in the heart of the Jays lineup.
