A massive 13-game slate awaits Tuesday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Hunter Brown at $10,800 leads nine pitchers priced at $9,000 or greater, so nearly 35 percent of our arm choices are in a pay up tier.
The Red Sox (-245) lead the way amongst heavy favorites, followed by the Astros (-215) and Cardinals (-205). Astros-Guardians is our lowest run total at 7.0, with two additional games sitting at 7.5, while Atlanta-Athletics is our only double-digit run expectancy. Rain needs to be monitored in New York, Chicago and St. Louis, while wind doesn't look to be a serious factor anywhere.
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Pitching
Seth Lugo, KC vs. PIT ($9,700): Feel free to use anyone priced above Lugo as your budget allows, but the Royals starter offers a $1,100 discount from the top option and has a solid matchup. Pittsburgh ranks 28th against righties with an 81 wRC+, adding a weak .290 wOBA and .107 ISO, striking out 22.7 percent of the time. Lugo hasn't allowed more than a run in any of his last four starts, posting at least 41 FDP while striking out 31 across 24.1 innings.
Brayan Bello, BOS vs. COL ($8,400): Low hanging fruit here, so expect many to plug and play Bello against the Rockies, who enter Tuesday with a 26.4 percent K rate against righties, posting a league-worst 76 wRC+ and .298 wOBA. Bello has quietly posted five quality starts over his last six, but he's topped 26 FDP just twice in that stretch. He's averaging just 6.5 K/9, a career-low mark, so the upside is questionable and only present due to the matchup. Mitch Keller ($8,700) seemingly has a similar floor and ceiling, and likely comes with a far lower roster rate.
Nick Martinez, CIN vs. MIA ($7,500): While Miami's offense has been decent of late, they remain one of the lightest-hitting teams in the league, posting a .315 wOBA, 99 wRC+ and .144 ISO against righties, striking out 21.4 percent of the time. Strikeouts aren't Martinez' thing at just 6.4 per nine, but he's worked 14.2 frames over his last two starts, showing some longevity. Flyballs have been an issue for Martinez, but the Marlins enter with just a 35.1 percent flyball rate, hopefully helping keep balls in the yard. Absolutely a floor play for cheap, but if you're chasing upside, stay in this game and consider Eury Perez ($7,700).
Top Targets
Toronto has one of the hottest offenses in the league, and are heavy favorites against Aaron Civale, whose 4.60 ERA comes with a 5.28 xFIP. George Springer ($3,700) went 0-for-5 last night, but is 3-for-8 with a homer off Civale. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,400) compiled 18.2 FDP last night without a hit, and is 5-for-14 with two homers off the White Sox starter. Addison Barger ($3,000) remains underpriced for his power potential, making this a stackable option.
Simeon Woods Richardson is allowing a .371 wOBA to lefties against .276 to righties. Cue up Pete Crow-Armstrong ($4,300) and/or Kyle Tucker ($3,900) as your budget allows.
Despite having not homered since June 23, Fernando Tatis ($4,000) has posted double-digit fantasy points in six of his last eight. It's a form and BvP play, as he's 10-for-28 with four homers off Arizona's Merrill Kelly.
Bargain Bats
Romy Gonzalez ($3,200) continues to collect hits, 13 across his last eight games, and has a .499 wOBA, 224 wRC+ and .354 ISO against lefties ahead of a matchup against Kyle Freeland.
Washington's Jake Irvin has a 5.79 road ERA (4.71 xFIP) and the Cardinals come with a 5.7 run expectancy as a result. Brendan Donovan ($2,800) offers four-position flexibility while posting a .387 wOBA and 152 wRC+ off righties.
Will Warren has been all over the place results-wise, allowing three runs or less in four of his last seven starts, and 19 in his other three. Outside of Cal Raleigh at $4,400, the Mariners don't have a bat priced above $3,000. Julio Rodriguez ($2,900) and J.P. Crawford ($2,800) have been low ceiling, non-zero scoring options of late and can help round out builds.
The Angels' Jose Soriano profiles similarly to Warren. He's allowed one run or zero in five of his last seven starts, and 15 in the other two. Corey Seager ($3,200) homered last night and is 4-for-5 with a homer off Soriano.
Stacks to Consider
Athletics vs. Didier Fuentes (Atlanta): Nick Kurtz ($3,200), Lawrence Butler ($3,100), Jacob Wilson ($3,000)
It's a small sample, just 12.0 innings, but Fuentes is allowing a .453 wOBA and 1.065 OPS to lefties, and .374/.850 to righties. He's got good stuff, but the reality is he probably should still be in Double-A, at best. The A's don't have a bat priced above $3,300 so it should be open season on rostering multiple pieces from their lineup. Kurtz gives us some power potential, and has a team-best .391 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and .314 ISO off righties. Wilson profiles with a stable floor, striking out just 8.0 percent of the time, and Butler gives us a power/speed upside threat to round out a top of the order stack.
Brewers vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): Christian Yelich ($3,500), Jackson Chourio ($3,500), William Contreras ($2,800)
Kershaw comes with a 4.11 xFIP and is only striking out 6.5 per nine, so this stack could perhaps give us super-low roster rates with the potential for a spike. This trio is a collective 13-for-42 (.310) with three homers off Kershaw. Chourio is a nightly play against lefties, posting a .432 wOBA, 182 wRC+ and .260 ISO. Yelich has a six-game hitting streak going and has homered in three of his last eight. Contreras gets the third nod hitting between these two, and for his marginal 3-for-7 success against Kershaw, as it's otherwise been a season-long struggle.
