Much of what will be discussed below is a continuation of Jerry Donabedian's work from this week's Box Score Breakdown, the most thorough NFL weekly recap article around. The idea is to pick out some of the most important developments from Week 5 and do a deep dive to see what they might mean for Week 6 and beyond.
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1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was finally used as the lead back in Washington
- Key Stat: Croskey Merritt had a 49 percent snap share and a 66.7 percent opportunity share in Week 5.
Croskey-Merritt has narrowly led the Washington backfield before, but his usage in Week 5 had a different feel. He narrowly missed a 50 percent snap share, but his snap rate was its highest mark of the season by nine percentage points. Croskey-Merritt also comfortably earned his most opportunities in a game (14 carries, two targets). His performance didn't give Washington any reason to look back, as he finished third among running backs with 4.11 rush yards over expectation per attempt. That level of efficiency clearly won't continue, but Croskey-Merritt is the team's best playmaker out of the backfield by a significant margin.
We were fooled by the Texans' backfield usage in Week 4, so there is some danger in declaring Croskey-Merritt a safe fantasy option. However, it is notable that Chris Rodriguez, Croskey- Merritt's top competition, didn't take the field until the second half and didn't meaningfully contribute until the fourth quarter with Washington holding a comfortable lead.
2. Ashton Jeanty is starting to look the part of the sixth overall pick.
- Key Stat: Jeanty totaled 109 scrimmage yards despite being on the field for only 55 percent of offensive snaps in a blowout loss to the Colts.
Jeanty's snap rate is underwhelming, but context is key. Raheem Mostert played 100 percent of the snaps in the fourth quarter with the Raiders down by 3-4 touchdowns. In the first half, Jeanty was the only back with a carry or target and was on the field for 90 percent of offensive snaps. He's now topped 100 scrimmage yards in consecutive games after failing to do so in his first three games.
The concern is similar to that of fellow impressive rookie Quinshon Judkins in Cleveland, in that the offensive environment in Las Vegas is going to hold back Jeanty's upside. That's certainly possible, and even likely. However, it's difficult to imagine things getting worse than they were in Sunday's disastrous loss and Jeanty still managed to put together a more than serviceable performance. If there was any doubt, Jeanty should consistently produce at RB1 levels in most weeks.
3. Darren Waller was the biggest winner of Tyreek Hill's (knee) absence.
- Key stat: Waller had a 67 percent route share and an 18.5 percent targets per route run rate.
Jaylen Waddle delivered a strong fantasy line and saw a slight uptick in air yards, but he still didn't condense targets all that much. De'Von Achane maintained his significant role as a pass catcher, but there was a question as to who would emerge as the secondary downfield pass catcher alongside Waddle in Hill's absence. Malik Washington had some preseason buzz and was a prime candidate, but he turned five targets into four receptions and zero yards (23 air yards).
Instead, Waller was the beneficiary and essentially operated as the WR2. His 67 percent route share was tied for second on the team and his 64 air yards were comfortably second behind only Waddle. In two games this season, Waller also has two targets inside the 5-yard line with three inside the 10. He has a strong role in all areas of the field and looks to be a top-10 tight end so long as he can stay on the field.
4. David Njoku was Dillon Gabriel's favorite (and most effective) target.
- Key Stat: Njoku was on the field for 96 percent of offensive snaps and earned nine targets in Gabriel's first start.
In the best-case scenario, Gabriel was considered a viable game-manager level starting quarterback as a prospect. He displayed both the positives and negatives of his skillset in his pro debut Sunday, struggling when targeting his outside receivers (Isaiah Bond and Jerry Jeudy combined to record four receptions on 12 targets for 44 yards). On the other hand, he was much better when throwing to both Njoku and Harold Fannin. Njoku had the far superior role of the duo as measured by route participation (74 to 51 percent), targets (nine to four) and air yards (48-3) and is another veteran tight end that has gone from useless to startable in fantasy in the last couple weeks.
As a bit of a bonus observation, Bond could be another breakout player in this offense. He was highlighted in last week's article, and his strong role continued in Week 5 when he had an 83 percent route participation rate and led the Browns with 88 air yards. If Bond can form a connection with Gabriel, he'll be a solid FLEX option as injuries and bye weeks continue to become more prevalent.
5. Michael Carter is the lead back in Arizona.
- Key Stat: Carter had a 74 percent opportunity share in Arizona's first game without both James Conner (ankle) and Trey Benson (knee).
Jerry did a great job laying out the drive-by-drive summary of the touch allocation in the Arizona backfield in his Box Score Breakdown article, but the end result was that Carter saw 23 touches on 23 opportunities in Sunday's loss to Tennessee. Meanwhile, Emari Demercado and Bam Knight combined for eight touches on as many opportunities. There are two ways to interpret the results.
Carter was far from special, finishing with -29 rushing yards above expectation — the second-worst mark of the day ahead of only De'Von Achane. That would theoretically open the door for Demercado and Knight, with the former seemingly taking advantage on what should have been a long 72-yard touchdown run to clinch victory. Demercado instead fumbled the ball before crossing the goal line. Based on coach Jonathan Gannon's much-publicized reaction to the error, it would be fair to project the Cardinals to rely on the steady vet (Carter) as the workhorse. The results may not be thrilling, but RB2/FLEX production is foreseeable for Carter for at least the next three games.
6. Calvin Ridley finally showed some rapport with Cam Ward.
- Key Stat: Ridley recorded 131 air yards in Sunday's win over Arizona.
Tennessee's win was more of an epic collapse from the Cardinals than a turning of the corner for the Titans, but there is some credit to give to Ridley and Ward. The duo connected for long gains of 47, 38 and 25 yards — all of which came on deep passes, rather than being generated by yards after the catch.
Ridley's woes to begin the season don't need an introduction. He had topped 30 receiving yards in only one of four games entering Week 5, while combining to record only 141 yards in those four games. There will still be clunkers, but Ridley moved himself out of the completely unplayable range with this performance.
7. Rachaad White is the lead back in Tampa Bay while Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) is sidelined.
- Key Stat: White accounted for 18 of 24 running back opportunities in Sunday's win over Seattle.
Irving had a vague post on social media that seemed to suggest his injuries could be on the more serious side of things. That diagnosis remains unclear, however, so White's role as the top back in Tampa Bay could be short-lived. In the meantime, his usage in Week 5 illustrates he's a viable fantasy starter so long as Irving is sidelined. White ceded three targets to Sean Tucker, which eliminates some high-value touches, but he also earned five opportunities (four carries and one target) inside the red zone, three inside the 10 and two inside the 5. In a high-powered offense, that's a great spot to be in.
8. Evan Engram is becoming a key part of the Denver offense.
- Key Stat: Engram had a 54 percent route rate in Sunday's upset win over the Eagles.
Engram's time in Denver didn't start positively, while being slowed by calf and back injuries. He was sidelined with the latter issue in Week 3, but he's since run 26 and 23 routes (as opposed to 13 and 15 in Weeks 1 and 2) while commanding seven and six targets. The stat lines haven't been spectacular, but Engram looked athletic and displayed nice balance and effort on a game-winning 11-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Eagles.
There's room for Engram to excel in the offense. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin have solidified their roles in the offense (100 and 78 percent route share in Week 5, respectively), but Engram tied for third in route rate at 54 percent while finishing second on the team with six targets. His role doesn't look to be quite as plush as Waller's, but he joins the group of veteran tight ends that have re-entered the fantasy consciousness.
9. Rico Dowdle made his case for a timeshare in Carolina's backfield.
- Key Stat: Dowdle recorded 105 yards above expectation in Sunday's spot start against Miami.
It was no surprise that Dowdle dominated work out of the Panthers' backfield in the absence of Chuba Hubbard (foot), but what he accomplished with that opportunity is notable. Dowdle had a dream matchup against a Dolphins defense that allows the most rushing yards per game and the second-most rushing yards per attempt to opponents, but he capitalized on the chance with a massive 206-yard and two-touchdown stat line. It's unclear when Hubbard might return or how much the injury plagued his performance to begin the season, but Dowdle could be more of a 1B in the backfield rather than a traditional backup once Hubbard is back.
10. There may not be a startable running back in New Orleans.
- Key Stat: Alvin Kamara accounted for 45 percent of the opportunity share in the Saints' backfield.
Fantasy managers have had plenty of warning that Kamara's efficiency is declining and that the New Orleans offense had the potential to be putrid this season. Despite that, Kamara still looked to have a safe fantasy floor due to volume, particularly as a receiver. He still owns that role, accounting for six of the seven running back targets in Week 5. Contrarily, his role as a rusher has declined steadily, peaking at 21 carries in Week 2 before falling progressively to only eight in Week 5.
Kendre Miller has been most of the problem to this point. He's been moderately effective on the ground and has double-digit carries in each of the team's last two games, out-gaining Kamara on each occasion. Miller looks to be taking over as the traditional lead back, even if Kamara still maintains the more desirable fantasy role.
One more factor was introduced Sunday with the surprising return of Taysom Hill. He earned six rushing attempts while serving as the change-of-pace at quarterback in his season debut, arguably hurting New Orleans' pass catchers more than Kamara or Miller. Regardless of his exact usage, Hill is still another player to spread out touches in an offense that needs to be concentrated for an individual player to consistently stand out.
