I participated in one of The NFFC's RotoWire Online Championship leagues Friday night, picking from the eighth spot. The format is QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/DEF, with PPR scoring and six points for passing touchdowns. In this article I'll talk about my selection process and reflect on the results.
The Strategy
I remembered from past NFFC drafts that there tends to be intense inflation at running back and wide receiver, while tight end and to a lesser extent quarterback tend to get marginalized. Because I've seen how people hoard running backs in this format, I wanted to account for my running back situation early on, theoretically allowing me to chase value at other positions while other teams are selecting players like Kareem Hunt and Mark Ingram in the fifth round. Recent injury popups with all of Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, Kenyan Drake, David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift made me that much more convinced of this approach.
The NFFC contests assign your draft slot based on the competing preference orders submitted by the team owners. It wasn't my first preference, but the No. 8 spot was one of my highest-ranked choices – probably something like third or fourth behind No. 1 (McCaffrey) and No. 3 (Elliott). The reason I liked this range basically came down to – like so many things in my case – the situation with Nick Chubb. I don't know why, particularly in this context of other running backs getting hurt, but Chubb's ADP had fallen to around the 17th pick. The eighth slot carries with it the 17th. I guess you can see where this is going.
The Picks
1 (8). Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
I knew I wanted to get Chubb in the second round, but for the first round I was unsure what to think. I was prepared to make a selection I usually don't – something like Michael Thomas or Clyde Edwards-Helaire – since my normal target at this spot (Joe Mixon) is dealing with a somewhat concerning migraine issue. I already had a Mixon share on my $150 NFFC Best Ball roster, so I was looking for a reason to pass on him here. Henry qualified as such, and truthfully I preferred him over Thomas and CEH anyway. I understand the aversion some have to Henry given that he doesn't catch many passes, but I think the argument is largely ideological and I don't share the ideology.
2 (17). Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
I've been a longtime advocate of Henry and Chubb, so I'm glad to get them both slightly below ADP. I briefly considered Julio Jones at this pick because Julio is my top-ranked receiver this year, but I decided to stick with my prior plan and take Chubb given how the running back options can rapidly deteriorate between picks. Passing on Julio hurts, though.
3 (29). Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
With the Taylor selection I've assembled perhaps the three greatest pillars of my 'Brand,' Mecole Hardman and Jalen Reagor aside. With Henry, Chubb and Taylor I might have the top three rushing yardage producers this year, and that strikes me as significant even if they are liabilities for pass-catching production. I firmly believe Taylor will be a top-five fantasy pick next year.
4 (44). A.J. Brown, WR, TEN
You always want upside in NFFC contests given the tournament playoff pool, and Brown has a lot of upside by any measure. Perhaps this was a roster construction error on my part, though, because Brown's max-upside scenario is probably one that would occur at the expense of Henry. The next two receivers on my board were D.J. Chark and Terry McLaurin, however, and I felt like the gap between Brown and those two was too pronounced for the roster construction consideration to take deciding precedent.
5 (53). Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
I know most observers would call my wide receivers weak, but I have to disagree and Boyd is a big reason why. I think he's plainly one of the safest picks in PPR this year – a very good player who already produced in awful conditions. The conditions should improve this year, though, and Boyd should be the new Justin Jefferson to Joe Burrow.
6 (68). Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
I ideally would have paired him with any of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup or CeeDee Lamb, but absent that option I still love to add Prescott to any team of mine. I think he's the real deal and I think he has a lot of firepower around him. Since I was content with my running back and wide receiver setups, I decided to buy Prescott here rather than go cheap at quarterback.
7 (77). Darren Waller, TE, LV
I went into the draft hoping to resist spending at tight end – I love the later-round options like T.J. Hockenson, Chris Herndon and Irv Smith – but Waller falling this far broke my discipline. I think Waller is pretty clearly one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I'm deeply skeptical of the idea that any Raiders pass catcher can compete with him. Despite my plan to wait at tight end, the prospect of securing a 90-catch tight end in the seventh round convinced me to adjust course.
8 (92). Jalen Reagor, WR, PHI
The Brand lives! I'm a huge Reagor fan and have been for a long time, so these endless reports of training camp hype for Reagor are catnip to me. He certainly checks the box for the upside objective, so while it might be aggressive to make Reagor my WR3, this was a plunge I took without hesitation.
9 (101). Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG
I don't normally acquire Shepard shares, but that's because in those cases I had alternatives like Christian Kirk and Jamison Crowder on the board. They were both gone at 101 in this case, so Shepard's concussion concerns became immaterial to me. I never questioned Shepard's talent or per-play effectiveness – I absolutely consider him a standout starting NFL receiver – so these particular circumstances were a good time for me to add a share.
10 (116). Antonio Gibson, WR, WAS
I nearly selected Gibson over Shepard the round prior, so this pick felt like successfully threading the needle. Gibson is a risky pick and I acknowledge the floor could fall out from under him, but I built the roster foundation the way I did specifically to set up home run swings like this one. As a bench piece who could emerge as a standout pass-catching starting running back with wide receiver eligibility, Gibson was the perfect pick for me here.
11 (125). Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
I blew it with this pick. Aiyuk had been going more around the 150th spot in the ADP in light of his hamstring strain, so it was objectively a reach even if the pick works out. In hindsight, I wish I had taken A.J. Dillon or Chris Herndon.
12 (140). Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
Burrow stands out in his range of the ADP for his dual-threat upside. Less than enamored with the skill position options, I decided to take Burrow as an ostensible high-upside backup.
13 (149). Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
This was a 'meh' pick to me, but I figured I should have a backup tight end and Goedert checks the max-upside box that's so important in leagues like this. He will more than likely be useless for me, but if Zach Ertz misses time then Goedert immediately turns into a top-eight tight end at the least.
14 (164). Benny Snell, RB, PIT
The running backs were flying off the board, as expected, so I was actually pretty lucky to get Snell at this spot. I'm not even particularly high on him as a talent, but by all accounts he's likely the primary backup to James Conner, who's at once very good but also a major injury concern.
15 (173). Greg Zuerlein, K, DAL
Legatron.
16 (188). Buffalo DST
The Bills defense is loaded, and the AFC East is loaded with terrible offenses.
17 (197). Tampa Bay DST
Unlike Buffalo, Tampa has to contend with a couple high-scoring offenses in their division, but I think they're up to the task. Carlton Davis has a shoulder injury I'm a little concerned about but if he's fine then Tampa Bay has both an elite run defense and one of the best groups of defensive back personnel.
18 (212). Jaylen Samuels, RB, PIT
Some think the Steelers will cut Samuels. I doubt they will, but if they do it might work out all the better for him. He's one of the best pass catchers at running back league-wide, and if the Steelers can't use him then I bet someone else can. I love to pair Snell with Samuels – they're cumulatively cheap but it corners the Steelers backfield in the event of a Conner absence.
19 (221). Reggie Bonnafon, RB, CAR
Reporting from around Carolina says Mike Davis is the top backup to Christian McCaffrey, but I think Bonnafon is pretty clearly the preferable fantasy target given his pass-catching ability. Each Bonnafon target is worth two Davis carries, and in the event that McCaffrey is absent the Panthers will absolutely need Bonnafon to pick up targets even if Davis takes all the carries.
20 (236). Ty Montgomery, RB, NO
If I could go back, I'd switch my Aiyuk pick for A.J. Dillon and in this round I'd take Trent Taylor instead of Montgomery. Oh well. I don't expect anything from Montgomery, but even now I believe in his talent – I entirely blame injuries for his downfall. As much as I don't expect it specifically, I would feel more vindicated than surprised if Sean Payton ends up featuring Montgomery as an off-the-bench running back/wide receiver tweener. In the event of an Alvin Kamara injury, Montgomery might become the passing down back.
