With the BMW Championship in the books, the six automatic qualifiers for the U.S. Ryder Cup Team have been determined and captain Zach Johnson will make his six picks after this week's TOUR Championship. The European Ryder Cup Team will continue to accumulate points at this week's Czech Masters and next week's Omega European Masters before the three spots on the European Points List and the three spots on the European World List are finalized. Following the Omega European Masters, captain Luke Donald will select his six picks.
Even after the teams are finalized there will still be a few weeks before the Ryder Cup takes place in Rome on Sept. 29-Oct. 1. There will be only one PGA Tour event during that time and several big DP World Tour events such as the Irish Open and BMW PGA Championship, and that should help keep those playing on the European Tour fresh. The Ryder Cup host course, Marco Simone, also hosted the DP World Tour back in early May. As is the host team's choice, the course will be set up to favor the European players with narrow fairways and thick rough.
With all that said and a lot of data to look at, let's delve into both the automatic qualifiers and my predictions for the six captain's picks on either side.
2023 Ryder Cup: U.S. Team Qualifiers
1. Scottie Scheffler (2-0-1 career Ryder Cup record)
Scheffler is putting together the second best ball-striking season in the Strokes Gained era. He has "only" two wins this season but is in contention every time he tees it up no matter how poor the putter is. Scheffler was a standout in the 2021 Ryder Cup, defeating Jon Rahm in singles, and you know he is motivated to shake off his 0-3-1 record at last year's Presidents Cup.
2. Wyndham Clark (Rookie)
Clark played well for months before finally breaking through at the Wells Fargo Championship. He showed it was no fluke a month later by taking the U.S. Open with a strong run on the back nine. Clark's biggest strengths are his length and putting, but there are really no glaring weaknesses when you look at the numbers. He seems like he could be a fixture in team competitions for years.
3. Brian Harman (Rookie)
Harman flat-out dominated the field at Royal Liverpool en route to his first major championship. He never made a U.S. team before, but there's no question that his gritty bulldog mentality will pay off in match play. I think the U.S. side could be getting a more accurate version of Patrick Reed that would really pair well with anyone given how good his short game and putting are.
4. Patrick Cantlay (3-0-1)
No wins for Cantlay this season, but he's a fixture inside the top 15 virtually every time he tees it up. He's third in SG: Tee-to-Green and first total driving, which will pay dividends at Marco Simone. Cantlay earned 3.5 points at the Ryder Cup in 2021 and features a 6-3-0 record across two Presidents Cup appearances.
5. Max Homa (Rookie)
After a start to the season that included wins in Napa and La Jolla, you wouldn't have thought it would take Homa until the last week to clinch an automatic bid. His April-to-June stretch was a bit inconsistent, but he finished T12 or better in his last four events. Homa has no weaknesses at 44th or better in every Strokes Gained category this season, and he has been particularly impressive with the putter. He brought big-time energy to the Presidents Cup last year and went 4-0-0 as a rookie.
6. Xander Schauffele (3-1-0)
Schauffele has had a very similar season to Cantlay with a bunch of top-25s but no wins. It is no surprise that those two make such a great duo at the team events. Schuaffele hasn't driven it quite as well as he has in the past, but he is top-5 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting. He sports a 9-4-0 record in three U.S. Team appearances.
2023 Ryder Cup: U.S. Team Captain's Picks Predictions
Players listed in order of confidence
1. Jordan Spieth (8-7-3)
Spieth was always going to be on this team coming off a 5-0-0 performance at the Presidents Cup last year that included his first win in singles. While Spieth didn't win this season, he could have easily won three or four times had it been for a few things here or there down the stretch. The putting is still not quite where he wants it, but he's driving it pretty well this season and we know how incredible the short-game is.
2. Rickie Fowler (3-7-5)
Fowler hasn't be on a team since the 2019 Presidents Cup, but he has definitively shown he deserves to be in Rome. Fowler had 13 top-20s in a 15-start stretch this season that culminated in a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, his first since 2019. He has brought his putting back to what it used to be and the iron play has been among the best on Tour this season.
3. Collin Morikawa (3-0-1)
The narrative with Morikawa is probably a little different had he held onto that six-shot lead in Maui, but frankly there aren't six players you'd pick over him. He is second in both driving accuracy and SG: Approach this season, which I think will be key at Marco Simone with the narrow fairways and thick rough. Morikawa is 5-1-1 in two previous U.S. Team appearances.
4. Lucas Glover (Rookie)
Glover being in contention to make the Ryder Cup team was not on my bingo card in 2023, but I'd have a really hard time passing on him. He has been one of the most consistent ball strikers on the PGA Tour for 15 years but just a terrible putter. At age 43 he finally tried the long putter and it worked wonders over the last couple months, as he went T22 or better in seven of his last nine starts with five top-6 finishes and two wins.
5. Cameron Young (Rookie)
The U.S. Team is extremely high on Young, and for good reason. He is a top-5 driver in the world and is a very good middle-to-long iron player. Young reached the finals of the WGC-Match Play in March before sliding into a little bit of a slump. He seems to have righted the ship with three top-15s in his last five starts, however. Players were lining up to try and play with Young last year at the Presidents Cup.
6. Russell Henley (Rookie)
This last spot is just so hard. I think if this was on U.S. soil you go with a player with a little more firepower, but the consistency and accuracy of Henley's ball striking just makes too much sense at Marco Simone. Henley has finished top-8 in three straight starts and finished top-20 in 11 of his last 14. Among U.S. players, the former Georgia Bulldog ranks fourth in strokes gained over the last six months.
Just missed the cut: Keegan Bradley, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau
To me these five players have the best chance to be picked. Bradley was an emotional spark plug at the Ryder Cup in his younger days, and while he won the Travelers that was his only top-20 finish in his last 13 starts. Thomas has a 16-5-3 record in team competitions, and while it is hard to leave that production off the team, there's nothing he has really shown in the last few months to provide any sort of encouragement about his game. I have no clue what has happened to Finau since his win at the Mexico Open in late April. He is below the likes of Charley Hoffman, Nate Lashley, and Greyson Sigg in strokes gained over the last three months. Finau has a decent team competition record of 6-5-3, but I'm not sure that's enough to warrant a pick for someone who finished 21st in Ryder Cup points. Koepka just fell out of an automatic qualifying spot after the BMW Championship, but the only reason he was in there to begin with was because of his win at the PGA Championship. While that was awesome, he really wasn't competitive at the final two majors of the year and finished outside the top 35 in his last two LIV starts. Finally, I know some of the strokes-gained gurus are going to bang the DeChambeau drum, but European Ryder Cup setups just do not fit his game. We saw it back in Paris in 2018, when he went 0-3-0. I actually would be okay with a couple of these players sliding in over say a Henley or Glover on a wide open and long track in the United States, but the captains need to learn from the demolition in 2018 and focus on the type of game you need to compete overseas. Too many holes were given away by wild drives.
2023 Ryder Cup: European Team Qualifiers
1. Rory McIlroy (12-12-4 career Ryder Cup record)
McIlroy was emotional two years ago at Whistling Straits because he felt he let the team down, so you know he is eager to turn it around in Rome. McIlroy finished top-10 in his last nine starts, but only one of those was a win, and that came in Scotland. He will go for his fourth FedEx Cup at the TOUR Championship and can pair well with any player on the European side.
2. Jon Rahm (4-3-1)
Rahm and Sergio Garcia formed a very strong duo at the last Ryder Cup, but with Garcia no longer on the team Donald will be forced to look elsewhere. His win as the Masters marked his fourth victory of the year, but things have been trying since. Over his last nine starts he posted a pair of runner-up finishes, but also three finishes outside the top 30, including each of the first two playoff events.
3. Viktor Hovland (0-3-2)
We have known Hovland is one of the best ball strikers in the world for a couple years, but he was really missing that signature win. Well, he got two of them over the summer, winning the Memorial and then the BMW Championship. The short-game issues appear to be behind him and he should be one of the leaders of the European Team for the next decade-plus.
4. Tyrrell Hatton (2-4-1)
Hatton has missed just one cut on the PGA Tour this season and has 12 top-20 finishes. He is extremely solid in all areas of the game and sits seventh in SG: Total. This will be Hatton's third Ryder Cup, and at just 31 years old he should wind up on a few more given his complete game and consistency.
5. Tommy Fleetwood (4-2-2)
Fleetwood burst on the Ryder Cup scene in 2018 when he and Francesco Molinari went a perfect 4-0-0. Fleetwood lost his singles match that year and went just 0-1-2 at Whistling Straits. Marco Simone should suit Fleetwood's style a lot better and his game has been so strong for several months. The Englishman recorded nine top-25 finishes in his last 11 starts.
6. Robert MacIntyre (Rookie)
The last spot on the European Points List is still very much up for grabs at the Czech Masters and Omega European Masters. MacIntyre holds that spot for now thanks to seven top-20 finishes in his last 13 starts, including a runner-up at the Scottish Open. MacIntyre won at Marco Simone last year, which certainly boosts his chances of being a captain's pick if he does not qualify automatically.
2023 Ryder Cup: European Team Captain's Picks Predictions
Players listed in order of confidence
1. Matt Fitzpatrick (0-5-0)
There's a chance Fitzpatrick gets an automatic bid with a good showing at the TOUR Championship and Omega European Masters, but he's going to be on the team regardless. The 2022 U.S. Open Champion has been slightly down in 2023, but he seems to be rounding into form after a T2 at the BMW Championship. Fitzpatrick won the RBC Heritage earlier this season and is gaining strokes in every category.
2. Justin Rose (13-8-2)
Some may have thought Rose's Ryder Cup days were behind him after he missed the team at Whistling Straits and really struggled with his game heading into his mid-40's. That all changed with a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He missed the cut at the final two majors of the year, but 13 top-30 finishes in 20 starts is too many to be left off this team. Rose's amazing short game and putting of the last couple years have remained, and the ball striking has taken a step toward his prime days.
3. Shane Lowry (1-2-0)
I wouldn't say it has been a bad season for Lowry, who is 15-for-18 with nine top-25s, but his lone top-10 finish was a T5 at the Honda Classic and as a result he missed the FedExCup Playoffs. Lowry is still 29th in SG: Total and 26th in scoring average, so he will be on the team. He is teeing it up in the Czech Masters this week, will play his national Open in Ireland and then defend at the BMW PGA, so he has some time to find the form ahead of Marco Simone.
4. Sepp Straka (Rookie)
Straka likely locked up his spot by winning the John Deere Classic and finishing runner-up at the Open Championship in back-to-back weeks. It has been a bit of a struggle since, but Straka was still able to get to the TOUR Championship. His ball striking is his biggest weapon now, and he sits 20th in total driving and 17th in SG: Approach.
5. Adrian Meronk (Rookie)
Meronk can still claim the final spot on the European Points List with good showings at the Czech Masters and Omega European Masters, but he has a really good chance to be picked regardless. Meronk has two wins on the DP World Tour this season, the second of which came at Marco Simone. The 6-6 golfer leads the European circuit in SG: Total this season.
6. Ludvig Aberg (Rookie)
I feel pretty confident that the 11 players above will be on the team, but this last spot is very interesting. I think in the end it would make sense to take the player with the highest upside and give him a taste of the Ryder Cup on home soil. Aberg was the No. 1 player in the PGA Tour University rankings and thus immediately received a PGA Tour card upon turning pro. He impressed a lot of people in nine starts this season, missing just one cut and notching six top-25 finishes. If Aberg had enough rounds to qualify he would rank fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in GIR percentage.
Just missed the cut: Alexander Bjork, Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger, Thomas Detry, Jordan Smith, Adrien Dumont de Chassart
These are the six other players I would consider for the final spot on the European team. It is really close between all of them. Hojgaard and Dumont de Chassart fall into that "young player with upside" category like Aberg and will be on this team one day. Jaeger, Smith and Bjork are all just extremely consistent players. Smith is a really good ball striker, Jaeger has some serious short-game skills and Bjork is elite on approach and with the putter. Detry is one who last fall I would have thought would be on the team with six top-15 finishes in a nine-start stretch across the PGA and DP World Tours. His game was a little off the last few months and his name hasn't generated as much traction in these talks. It really just depends which way captain Donald wants to go. The high-upside play is Aberg, but the veteran that leads the DP World Tour in scoring average is Bjork. I'm not sure you could go wrong with either to close out the roster.
