2024 Genesis Scottish Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on July 9, 2024

Genesis Scottish Open Betting Preview

The PGA Tour crosses the pond for the first of two events in Scotland, starting with this week's Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. A co-sanctioned event with the DP World Tour, 75 players from the European Tour will be among a strong field that includes six of the top-10 players in the OWGR and is headlined by tournament favorite Rory McIlroy at 15-2 odds. Last year, McIlroy (17-2 odds) birdied the closing two holes to triumph by one stroke over Robert MacIntyre for his 24th Tour victory.

This is the third installment of the Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club since it became a co-sanctioned event. The Tom Doak design is a par 70 that plays just over 7,200 yards. We don't have as much data or history as usual to draw from, but we know that the venue has some links style tendencies with pot bunkers and firm and fast conditions that benefits players that can keep the ball low when the wind kicks up like we saw in the final round last year. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately sized fairways and are typically only penalized by extremely wayward drives that find the tall fescue, putting more of a premium on distance over accuracy. The winner has led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green both years, so that's a good stat to key in on this week, as well as those hit their irons well from 150-200 yards with a lot of approach shots coming in that range.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday

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Scottish Open Stars

These players have the lowest scoring average at The Renaissance Club (minimum six rounds).

Kim enters the week coming off just his third missed cut of the year, although he was playing for a ninth week in a row, and he should have plenty of confidence returning to place he's finished T6 and solo third over two appearances. With a pair of top-5s over his last five starts including a playoff loss to Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers, Kim (30-1 odds) will be a popular selection in one-and-done contests for those that have yet to use him. Meanwhile, last year's runner-up returns to his home country, where McIlroy stole the show late. Nevertheless, MacIntyre captured his first PGA Tour win last month in Canada and is having a solid year overall, sitting 39th in both the FedExCup Standings and SG: Total.

Tee to Green Tacticians

These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

In addition to returning to a place where he won in his event debut, McIlroy's form from tee to green has been as good as anyone not named Scheffler as of late. A big reason for that is his driving play, as he ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and leads the Tour in driving distance this year. With a pair of wins over his last six starts and a runner-up result at the U.S. Open, he's the deserving favorite. The lone player to appear on both lists is 2022 event champion Schauffele, who followed it up with a disappointing T42 last year. His season is being overshadowed by an all time great one from Scheffler, but Schauffele's 11 top-10s in 16 starts with a major championship would be worthy of Player of the Year in most seasons. He's the second choice on the board at 17-2.

Genesis Scottish Open Bets: Outright Picks

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

Aberg missed the cut on the number here last year, but he had a horrible week putting and is a much better player one year later. He won on the DP World Tour last year and is gaining over a stroke per round with his ball striking this year.

Sungjae Im (40-1)

Following a slow start to the year, Im continues to trend in a positive direction and is looking like the player we're accustomed to seeing. With four top-10s over his last seven starts, he looks close to winning again soon.

Sepp Straka (65-1)

Straka has been inconsistent this year with five missed cuts but with an outright bet we're looking for ceiling potential and the two-time Tour winner has two top-5s over his last five starts. He's second in driving accuracy this year and difficult to overlook at 65-1.

Genesis Scottish Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Sahith Theegala (5-1)

Speaking of players that can be hit-or-miss, Theegala has five top-10s this year with a pair of runner-up finishes. He ranks in the top-30 in every strokes gained category excluding around the green, which is typically an area of strength for him.

Nicolai Hojgaard (13-2)

Hojgaard is coming off a T6 finish here last year in which he led the field in SG: Approach. His main weakness tends to be that he's sporadic off the tee, but that's not much of a detriment here. A good week to mix in golfers with experience in Europe, and Hojgaard has plenty of that.

Andrew Novak (16-1)

Novak has been playing solid golf recently with three consecutive top-20s. These are pretty generous odds for a guy that's posted four top-10s over his last 14 starts. Novak is gaining strokes in every category this year and his all-around game will be needed in Scotland.

Genesis Scottish Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Jordan Spieth (+105) over Justin Thomas

Yes, Spieth has gone 10 straight tournaments without a top-25, but I think his demise is being overstated. He's driving the ball as well as he's ever been, and his prior success overseas could be just what he needs. I'll take him at plus money over Thomas, who missed the cut here in 2022 and finished T60 last year and has never been a factor at links style courses.

Kurt Kitayama (-115) over Will Zalatoris

Kitayama has fired three rounds of 66 or better at the difficult venue, most notably finishing runner-up here in 2022. Mostly though, this is a fade against Zalatoris who is returning after withdrawing due to injury in the third round two weeks ago. He also missed the cut in his only appearance here two years ago.

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