DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: the Memorial Tournament Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $4M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the winner
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Yardage: 7,569
Par: 72
2023 champion: Viktor Hovland

Tournament Preview

Jack Nicklaus' Memorial Tournament, just like Tiger Woods' Genesis Invitational and the late Arnold Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational, are Signature Events but with a twist. There's a cut. And to use golf parlance, a baby cut.

The Memorial field stands at 73. The top-50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead will stick around for the weekend. In theory, that could be everyone. At Riviera, 51 of 70 made the cut, so that was almost a full cut. At Bay Hill, only 11 players missed -- 58 of 69 advanced.

So needless to say, getting all six DFS golfers through to the weekend will be mandatory.

The Memorial was a de facto Signature Event before there were Signature Events -- just about all the top players showed up every year (albeit with a larger field). That's the case again this year, with the U.S. Open just a week away. Of the top 50 in the world rankings, only No. 35 Min Woo Lee and No. 40 Nicolai Hojgaard are eligible but absent.

The field is led, as usual, by the vindicated Scottie Scheffler, plus major-champion-at-last Xander Schauffele,  and two guys back to their old selves at last, Rory McIlroy and defending champion Viktor Hovland. There are only five players ranked outside the top-100 OWGR entered. Two of them are among four sponsor invites, No. 108 Matt Kuchar, a former Memorial champion who just qualified for the U.S. Open, and No. 720 Brandt Snedeker, plus Jack Nicklaus Award winner Jackson Koivun, who plays at Auburn and is No. 4 in the World Amateur Golf Rankings.

This will be the 49th edition of the Memorial, which debuted in 1976 when Nicklaus was 35 years old and still winning majors. (To see the surprise winner of that inaugural Memorial, keep reading.) Nicklaus is now 84 and just four years removed from being part of a huge renovation of the Muirfield Village course. It didn't lose its teeth, as last year it was fifth-hardest course on the PGA Tour.

The 2022 official Golf Course Superintendents sheet for the Memorial described the course changes as such: They "included rebuilding of all 18 greens, relocation of several greens, contour changes on greens, rebuilding bunkers, leveling and seeding tees, relocating several tees, and renovating and seeding fairways."

That was an enormous undertaking and, in the process, they added 100 yards to an already long track.

While much has changed, it's really the same in the sense that it's still a Jack Nicklaus golf course, one that will expose any weakness a golfer has.

In some ways, Muirfield Village is the perfect golf course. No, it's not St. Andrews, it's not Augusta, it's not Pebble Beach. We don't mean it like that. As Nicklaus' signature design, it demands a golfer use all facets of his game and every club in his bag. While Nicklaus always put a premium on driving in his playing days, everything about Muirfield gets harder later. The holes get harder closer to the green. The back nine is harder than the front, with the hardest holes generally being Nos. 16, 17 and 18. The closing three-hole stretch doesn't have a cutesy animal nickname like so many courses, but the 218-yard 16th, 503-yard 17th and 480-yard 18th all play over par. Last year, 18 was the sixth-hardest hole on the entire PGA Tour all season, 16 was the 13th hardest and 17 was 26th. There's your Golden Bear Trap. The biggest change to the course since last year came on 16, where the tee was moved 25 yards to the right and one greenside bunker was removed.

The bentgrass greens have severe undulations and are small, averaging 5,000 square feet. Complicating matters are the 68 bunkers, water on 13 holes and the rough at a club-grabbing four inches. The easiest path to victory is to score on the four par-5s, none of which reaches 590. The par-3s have always been brutal, with three of them 200+ yards. Seven of the 10 par-4s exceed 450 yards. The 472-yard 10th is another brute.

With such a high percentage of the field making the cut, it's another opportunity to take some gambles on lower-priced options, maybe go with a top-and-bottom approach, as a golfer will have to beat only 20ish guys to keep playing. More on lineup construction: If torn between two similarly priced guys, we wouldn't find fault with picking the guy starting at No. 1 on Thursday as opposed to No. 10. The front is no cakewalk beginning with a 490 par-4, but it's easier than the back. Getting off to a good start can boost momentum, just like getting off to a bad start can snowball the wrong way.

As for the weather, the course saw more rain than usual in May, according to the official Golf Course Superintendents fact sheet. This week, temperatures will be mostly in the 70s with a good deal of cloud cover, a chance for a little rain but not much and windier than normal conditions.

Fun Memorial factoid: As we like to note every year, the winner of the inaugural tournament back in 1976 was none other than the lovable Roger Maltbie, for the third of his five PGA Tour wins, in a playoff over Hale Irwin.

Annual Memorial honorees: This year's honorees are Hall of Famers Juli Inkster and the late Tom Weiskopf, who like Nicklaus was a star at Ohio State.

Key Stats to Winning at Muirfield Village

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-3 efficiency 200-225 yards, par-4 efficiency 450-500 yards, par-5 efficiency 550-600 yards

Past Champions

2023 - Viktor Hovland
2022 - Billy Horschel
2021 - Patrick Cantlay
2020 - Jon Rahm
2019 - Patrick Cantlay
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Jason Dufner
2016 - William McGirt
2015 - David Lingmerth
2014 - Hideki Matsuyama

Champion's Profile

Last year, Hovland defeated Denny McCarthy in a playoff after both finished at 7-under. Hovland ranked third in SG: Putting and McCarthy was first. Hovland also ranked 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 26th in Approach and 31st in Around-the-Green, which for him is excellent. He also ranked 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and there was a direct correlation between that metric and the first page of the leaderboard. Scheffler finished just a shot back after ranking first in Off-the-Tee, Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green. How did he not win? He also ranked 65th in SG: Putting, which was dead last among players who made the cut.

Two years ago, Horschel won at 13-under. He ranked first in the field in greens in regulation and Tee-to-Green, third in Around-the-Green and 13th in Putting.

In 2021, Rahm was forced to withdraw through 54 holes with a six-shot lead after testing positive for COVID. To that point, he had gained an incredible 21 shots total on the field -- 15 of them from tee to green, nine on approach alone, and about 5 1/2 putting. His driving accuracy was 80 percent in what would've been one of the most dominating performances on Tour in years -- had it been completed.

Golfodds.com put the over/under on the winning score at 276.5, which is 11.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000+

Scottie Scheffler - $12,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +360) 
Ever since his arrest in Louisville, Scheffler has not been his usual self. And by that we mean he tied for eighth at the PGA Championship and for second at the Charles Schwab. Now his legal proceedings are behind him. Scheffler finished third here last year, and if you didn't read the Champion's Profile to see how he did it, we'll add on here that he gained more than 20 strokes on the field -- that's TWENTY -- tee to green. He LOST more than 8.5 on the greens. He also finished third in 2021.

Rory McIlroy - $11,100 (+900) 
McIlroy had another strong effort last week in Canada with a tie for fourth. He's been very good at the Memorial through the years, though not as good as he's been at many other tournaments. McIlroy's tied for seventh last year, his third top-10 in his past seven trips to Muirfield Village.

Viktor Hovland - $10,200 (+1800) 
A couple weeks ago, there was no way Hovland would've been listed here. But his showing at the PGA was such a stark change from the rest of his season, like a switch had been flipped, that we think he is "back." Despite not having a top-10 before his solo third at the PGA Championship, Hovland had still been gaining strokes everywhere but around the green.

$9,000-$9,900

Collin Morikawa - $9,800 (+1400) 
Morikawa won here in 2020 (Workday) and was second in 2021 (Memorial). This season, he has slowly been finding his form on approach, and he is now up to 71st on Tour. Plus he's ranked top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Around-the-Green. In his past five stroke-play starts beginning with the Masters, Morikawa has finished T3-9-T16-T4-4.

Justin Thomas - $9,200 (+2800) 
Thomas is coming off a tie for eighth at the PGA Championship in a season that has quietly been better than many people realize. He's ranked top-10 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Around-the-Green. Thomas finished second here as recently as 2020, with two other previous top-10s.

$8,000-$8,900

Sahith Theegala - $8,800 (+4500) 
This will be Theegala's fourth go-round at the Memorial, which seems like a lot for him. He tied for fifth here two years ago. Last week's missed cut in Canada doesn't carry much weight with us -- everyone not named Scheffler will miss here and there during a long season. Before Canada, Theegala tied for 12th at the PGA, a result that was actually tarnished by a poor Sunday.

Byeong Hun An - $8,400 (+5000) 
It was a little bit of a head-scratcher at first to see An priced among some real stars on the Tour. But it's warranted. He is ranked seventh in the standings, with two top-10s and two more T16s in Signature Events or majors this season. As long as An can continue to putt decently, the rest of his game will carry him. An finished top-25 here a year ago and was runner-up way back in 2018.

Russell Henley - $8,000 (+4500) 
Henley has similar odds as Theegala, Max Homa and Jordan Spieth. So this price appears to be a bargain. Henley checks off just about every box. He was 16th here last year and seventh in 2020. He has three top-10s and two more top-25s in his past seven starts, including T23 at the PGA. And he's ranked top-40 in both SG: Approach and Putting, and top-25 in Tee-to-Green and Around-the-Green.

$7,000-$7,900

Shane Lowry - $7,900 (+6500) 
Lowry has never missed a Memorial cut in six tries (in far larger fields than this one). He was 16th last year and sixth in 2021. He's also coming off a T6 at the PGA and a decent T33 in Canada. Lowry is ranked 11th on Tour in SG: Approach and 16th in Tee-to-Green.

Denny McCarthy - $7,600 (+7000) 
A guy who was second here last year, fifth the year before, is now a better player and still priced in the $7,000s is hard to avoid. McCarthy is ranked third on Tour in SG: Putting and 24th in Around-the-Green.

Billy Horschel - $7,400 (+6000) 
The 2022 Memorial champion, Horschel is coming off a top-10 at the PGA, and recently won in the Dominican Republic. At age 37, he is the seventh best putter on Tour this season. Horschel also finished top-10 here in 2019 and '20.

$6,000-$6,900

Austin Eckroat - $6,600 (+11000) 
A check of the notes showed we tabbed Eckroat here last year; he tied for 30th. We're back for more. Eckroat has five top-25s this season, including at the PGA Championship and of course his win at the Cognizant. He is ranked top-40 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green.

Patrick Rodgers - $6,500 (+18000) 
Like Eckroat, Rodgers tied for 30th here last year. He also has a top-10 and a top-20 through the years. Rodgers quietly has six top-25s and three top-10s this season, and is well inside the cut line to make the playoffs at No. 50 in the standings. He does not have pretty strokes-gained numbers, but he's finding a way to get it done. And that's really all that matters.

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