DraftKings PGA: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

WGC-DELL TECHNOLOGIES MATCH PLAY  

Purse: $12M 
Winner's Share: $2.16M 
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner 
Location: Austin, Texas 
Course: Austin Country Club 
Yardage: 7,108 
Par: 71
2021 champion: Billy Horschel

Tournament Preview  

We are now just two weeks from the Masters and this will be the final tuneup for many of the top golfers. So it is a bit curious that a match play event is positioned here. Of course, the golfers could play next week's Valero Texas Open, but most don't like playing the week before a major, not to mention three or four weeks in a row with the popular RBC Heritage following Augusta.

But for us gamers, the WGC-Match Play is an exciting tournament with a different DFS strategy than any other week of the year, so let's enjoy it. More on the format in a moment, but first let's review the field.

Fifty-eight of the top 64 golfers in the world are taking part. The biggest news is that No. 12 Bryson DeChambeau is in the field. Due to left hand and hip injuries he has not played since withdrawing from the Saudi International at the beginning of February. On the other hand, there are some big names missing in No. 6 Cameron Smith, No. 8 Rory McIlroy and new No. 10 Sam Burns, who pulled out at the last minute after winning the Valspar on Sunday. There's also No. 11 Hideki Matsuyama, who withdrew from THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago at the last minute with a neck injury. It will be interesting to see whether he will be idle for four weeks until his Masters defense. No. 22 Harris English (hip) remains out since the Hawaii Swing, and it seems unlikely he'll be ready for Augusta. And lastly there's No. 45 Phil Mickelson and his "situation," whatever it is, and it would simply be mind-blowing if he didn't play the Masters.

But it's still a great field beginning with world No. 1 Jon Rahm, No. 2 Collin Morikawa, No. 3 Viktor Hovland and on and on. There are five former champions in the field, including defending title-holder Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner (2019), Bubba Watson (2018), Dustin Johnson (2017) and Ian Poulter (2010). The six beneficiaries of the six absentees noted above are the Nos. 65-70-ranked golfers: Sebastian Munoz, Keegan Bradley, Robert MacIntyre, Keith Mitchell, Sepp Straka and Maverick McNealy. In all, 11 players will be making their Match Play debuts, with No. 38 Tom Hoge the highest ranked.

The Match Play has been a part of the DraftKings universe since 2018, but since it's a just a once-a-year event, let's detail how the games work, because there are differences from how DraftKings handles stroke-play tournaments.

We still pick six golfers with a $50,000 salary cap. But scoring will be based on holes won, halved and lost. Here's how it shakes out: Golfers get +3 points for a hole won, +0.75 points for a hole halved and -0.75 points for a hole lost. So, just as in DFS stroke play with birdies and bogeys, winning a hole is far more beneficial than losing a hole is penal. Further, golfers will get +1.6 points for holes not played (if they win their match early), +5 points for winning a match and +2 points for halving a match. Lastly, a streak of three consecutive winning holes nets +5 points (a maximum of once per round), and not losing a hole in the entire match lands a hefty +7.5-point bonus. That's the crux of it, and you can find it explained in full here.

As we can see, there are huge advantages to a blowout win, and when golfers take risks that pay off – and, in turn, gamers take risks that pay off – the benefits are large. We saw a lot of bogey-avoidance tracks during the just-completed Florida Swing. This week, we do a 180, and flag-hunting is something we'll want in our golfers. After all, if they miss and end up with a double bogey or even worse, it's just one hole lost. So with different golf and different scoring comes different lineup strategy. There are 16 groups of four golfers playing a round-robin format in the first round. Everybody plays at least three matches. The winner of each group advances to single-elimination match play. Obviously, getting as many of those 16 guys as possible is key. So, while you could take more than one guy in a group to better the chances of having someone advance, it seems far more prudent to pick six guys from six different groups, hoping all of them will advance, however unlikely it is that you'll nail a full six-pack. Taking the planning a step further, consider taking three guys in each half of the draw, further increasing the chance to make it deep into the tournament. All in all, the strategy is fascinating, and one of our key stats isn't a stat at all, it's examining the groups. Filling out the bottom of your lineup, look for weak four-man groups and get your long shots there.

We have five years of history at Austin Country Club, but it's okay to look beyond Austin to other match-play tournaments. There isn't a lot of match-play history going around, and it's a completely different animal from stroke play, so we believe info can be gleaned even from entirely different courses, including the Ryder and Presidents Cups. Guys who are good at match play tend to be good at it no matter the track, as Jason Day illustrated by winning at Austin but also at Dove Mountain in Tucson. Geoff Ogilvy won at La Costa in 2006 and repeated three years later at Dove Mountain.

Kisner broke a trend at Austin, where long hitters -- Watson, Johnson and Day -- all won the previous editions. Horschel piggybacked on Kisner. The Pete Dye-developed course features distinct nines – the front is much hillier on high ground, which is more traditional for Texas, while the back is referred to as the "lowlands nine" along Lake Austin. The track features vast elevation changes and deep pot bunkers. The three par-5s are no shorter than 565, a definite edge to the longer hitters. There are also five par-4s under 400 yards, including the risk/reward 317-yard 13th in which golfers could go for the green -- if they decide to challenge a small lake. In all, it's the perfect track for match play: lots of opportunities to be aggressive approaching the smallish Bermudagrass greens (averaging 5,500 square feet).

Weather-wise, no rain is forecast for the entire week and the winds are forecast to be mostly light. Temperatures will be in the 70s the first two days before rising into the 80s over the final three.

Five days? Yes. Remember, the tournament begins on Wednesday, so don't get locked out.

Wild Match Play factoid: In 2019, eight players currently ranked top-10 in the world were eliminated in the round-robin phase: Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson. Only Tyrrell Hatton advanced; Collin Morikawa was not entered.

Key Stats to Winning at Austin Country Club

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation -- especially from 200+ yards 
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling  
• Strokes Gained: Putting 
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage 
• Finding weakness in 4-man groupings  

Past Champions

2021 - Billy Horschel (Austin CC) 
2020 - None
2019 - Kevin Kisner (Austin CC)
2018 - Bubba Watson (Austin CC) 
2017 - Dustin Johnson (Austin CC) 
2016 - Jason Day (Austin CC) 
2015 - Rory McIlroy (TPC Harding Park) 
2014 - Jason Day (The GC at Dove Mountain) 
2013 - Matt Kuchar (Dove Mountain) 
2012 - Hunter Mahan (Dove Mountain)

Champion's Profile

For the most part, chalk or near-chalk has won the tournament over the past decade. Some big long shots tend to make it pretty deep into the week, too. Over the past four editions, a bunch of golfers seeded in the 40s, 50s or even 60s have reached at least the quarterfinals: John Senden, Danny Willett and Tommy Fleetwood in 2016; Chris Kirk and Ryan Moore in 2017; Hideto Tanihara and Soren Kjeldsen in 2018; Lucas Bjerregaard in 2019; and Brian Harman and Matt Kuchar in 2021. Willett, Tanihara, Bjerregaard and Kuchar were semifinalists. Such is the capricious nature of match play, in which a golfer needs to beat only one guy at a time, as opposed to maybe 150-plus. A great putter has a puncher's chance every match. And with the two finalists needing to play seven matches over five days, including two matches on both Saturday and Sunday, fitness surely plays a part in success or failure.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

No. 1 seed Jon Rahm - $11,300 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1200) 
Rahm has about as good a draw as possible, not only in his four man group -- No. 23 Patrick Reed, No. 40 Cameron Young, No. 58 Sebastian Munoz -- but also in his quarter of the bracket, as the other top seeds are No. 8 Dustin Johnson, No. 9 Bryson DeChambeau and No. 16 Brooks Koepka. While Reed is a fierce competitor in this format, he has not been playing well for some time now. Young is an aggressive player but this is his Match Play debut. Munoz doesn't scare anybody. DJ has not been playing well, DeChambeau hasn't played in months and Koepka, well, he could show up or not. Rahm made it to the quarterfinals last year and was runner-up to Johnson in 2017.

No. 4 Patrick Cantlay - $10,200 (+2200)
It's true that Cantlay has not made it out of round-robin play in his three tries. But his tenacity is a perfect fit for Match Play and his group is far from the strongest. No. 21 Sungjae Im is a very conservative player so this format his not his best. No. 42 Seamus Power is making his Match Play debut and No. 62 Keith Mitchell has played once before in 2019.

No. 7 Xander Schauffele - $9,600 (+2000) 
Schauffele is on the other side of the bracket from both Rahm and Cantlay. He's grouped with No. 18 Tony Finau, No. 39 Lucas Herbert and No. 56 Takumi Kanaya. This is one of the weakest of the 16 groups. Herbert and Kanaya are making their Match Play debuts. It should come down to either Schauffele or Finau, neither of whom has a great record in this tournament. Finau has not been at the top of his game for months now.

Tier 2 Values

No. 13 Tyrrell Hatton - $9,200 (+3000) 
Hatton's biggest obstacle in his round-robin group is No. 17 Daniel Berger, who of course is an excellent player but more on the conservative side. There's also No. 48 Si Woo Kim and No. 52 Christiaan Bezuidenhout. In 2018 and 2019, Hatton made it out of his group into the Round of 16 before bowing out. If he does advance this year, he'd play the winner of the Patrick Cantlay group in the first elimination round.

No. 11 Jordan Spieth - $8,900 (+3500) 
Spieth finds himself on the right side of the bracket, which we feel is the more challenging half. No one else in the top 30 is in his quartet. There's No. 32 Adam Scott, No. 46 Justin Rose and No. 60 Keegan Bradley. Spieth has reached the elimination rounds three times, including last year. It would then get very hard for him at that point, with perhaps No. 6 Justin Thomas or No. 29 Kevin Kisner awaiting in the Round of 16.

No. 28 Shane Lowry - $8,400 (+4000) 
Lowry has a nice price for someone who has been playing well, has a favorable group and is well versed in match play from his Ryder Cup appearances. His round-robin foes will be No. 16 Brooks Koepka (the weakest top seed), plus No. 35 Harold Varner III and No. 55 Erik van Rooyen, though neither of those two should be unilaterally dismissed. Van Rooyen won his group last year.

Tier 3 Values 

No. 30 Max Homa - $7,700 (+6000) 
Homa will likely have to get past No. 8 Dustin Johnson, a former Match Play champion but someone who hasn't been on form for some time. There's also No. 38 Matthew Wolff and No. 51 Mackenzie Hughes, who is also tough and did make it to an elimination round a year ago. Homa made his Match Play debut last year and finished second in his group but unfortunately for him he ran into the eventual champion in Billy Horschel. This will be the only round-robin group in which we pick two players. It's not that two can advance, of course, it's just that we see value in each. Hughes has a very favorable price, as you'll see down at the bottom.

No. 27 Talor Gooch - $7,700 (+6000) 
We like Gooch in his group, but whoever advances would then draw the winner of the DJ-Homa-Hughes group mentioned just above. Gooch is opposite No. 9 Bryson DeChambeau, who has been injured and idle for a couple of months, plus No. 47 Lee Westwood and No. 54 Richard Bland. Gooch did not fare well in his Match Play debut last year, managing just a half-point in his three matches. We obviously think he'll do better this time around.

No. 44 Brian Harman - $7,600 (+6500) 
Harman is in the most balanced group, with all four golfers separated by only $700. There's No. 15 Abraham Ancer at $7,900, No. 31 Webb Simpson at $7,400 and No. 57 Bubba Watson at $7,200. Harman has been a Match Play stud in his two tries, both times winning his group and last year making it to the quarterfinals. We like him here because Ancer and Simpson have not been great of late. Watson is another story: He has been playing fairly well and has played this tournament well, winning in 2018. We just like Harman more right now.

Long-Shot Values 

No. 33 Tom Hoge - $6,800 (+10000) 
Hoge will be one of the 11 golfers making their Match Play debuts, so we don't fully know what we are getting. But we like Hoge's tenacity, his price and his grouping. It's true he's with defending champion Billy Horschel, but also No. 26 Thomas Pieters and Np. 49 Min Woo Lee, two more guys who scare no one.

No. 25 Kevin Na - $6,600 (+9000) 
Na was a quarterfinalist in 2019 and reached the Round of 16 in 2017. So we like his chances at this long-shot price in a group against No. 14 Joaquin Niemann, No. 34 Russell Henley and No. 64 Maverick McNealy, who got in at the last minute after Sam Burns withdrew on Monday morning. McNealy will be making his Match Play debut and, while Niemann and Henley have played before and could be formidable, neither has ever advanced out of round-robin play.

No. 51 Mackenzie Hughes - $6,400 (+13000) 
Any time you can get a great putter way down here, especially someone who has had Match Play success, you have to go for him. As mentioned above, Hughes is the Dustin Johnson/Max Homa/Matthew Wolff group. Last year, Hughes advanced from a group including three other tough players in Paul Casey, Webb Simpson and Talor Gooch before falling in a tight contest to Sergio Garcia in the Round of 16.

With Hughes on the list, we now have picked eight golfers on the left side of the draw and only four on the right side. That's not optimal, but it's where we saw the best values.

Feel free to ask a question in the comments below if there are golfers you haven't seen mentioned here.