The Open Championship
Course: Royal Portrush (7,381 yards, par 71)
Purse: $17,000,000
Winner: $3,100,000 and 750 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Open Championship is my personal favorite tournament of the year. From the viewing experience to the extreme differences in style of golf you have to play compared to what we normally see from week-to-week, it delivers every year regardless of venue. Royal Portrush doesn't have the history that a lot of the other venues in the Open rota have, but you can make a case that it is one of the best. This will be the second time in the last six years it will host The Open and and third time overall. Portrush has a beautiful blend of holes that roll through sand dune hills right on the water. The views are stunning and it requires all parts of the game to score well.
In 2019 when the Open Championship returned to Northern Ireland for the first time since 1951, all eyes were on the hometown hero of Rory McIlroy. The excitement quickly vanished when he hooked his opening tee shot of the tournament out of bounds with an iron and ended up making a quadruple-bogey on the par-4 1st. McIlroy fought back valiantly in the second round, but ended up one shot outside the cutline. On the other side of it, Ireland's Shane Lowry was turning in a performance for the ages. He shot an eight-under 63 in the third round to take a commanding four-shot lead into Sunday. The final round presented the toughest conditions of the week, but Lowry held on strong while those around him faded, ultimately winning his first major title by six strokes at 15-under-par.
This year McIlroy returns with the career grand slam after his breakthrough at The Masters in April and is coming off a strong T2 showing at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. Scottie Scheffler is still the tournament favorite, however. He won the PGA Championship in May and has finished top-10 in his last 10 starts. Scheffler would love to add a third leg of the career grand slam this week. Xander Schauffele has not had the 2025 he was hoping for after a stunning 2024 season that included two major titles, punctuated by a dazzling back-nine to win at Royal Troon, but he still has to be considered a threat given his major championship prowess throughout his career. Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau will be apart of the conversation as well going into the week. Both players will be looking to add a third major title to their resume.
Because of the challenges that links golf presents, there is a bit of a feel this week that this tournament could be wide open. For top players like Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Robert MacIntyre and Sepp Straka who are all seeking a first major title, Portrush might be the perfect opportunity to capitalize and etch their name into history. There's also quite a few names 100-1 and beyond who are certainly capable of doing what Brian Harman did two years ago when he won at Royal Liverpool at 150-1 odds.
Weather is always a big storyline coming into the Open Championship week, and it will certainly have an impact on things this year. Rain is in the forecast for all four tournament rounds. After a very dry week at the Scottish Open, things will be a lot more lush at Portrush. There's still going to be plenty of rollout thanks to the firm, sandy grounds these links courses sit on, but spin control with the short irons and wedges into some of these greens could be a challenge. Fortunately for the players the winds will actually be pretty mild for what we normally see at The Open. I'd expect to see some good scores throughout the week and a few different players to reach double-digits under-par by Sunday afternoon.
Recent Champions
2024 - Xander Schauffele (-9) - Royal Troon
2023 - Brian Harman (-13) - Royal Liverpool
2022 - Cameron Smith (-20) - St Andrews
2021 - Collin Morikawa (-15) - Royal St George's
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Shane Lowry (-15) - Royal Portrush
2018 - Francesco Molinari (-8) - Carnoustie
2017 - Jordan Spieth (-12) - Royal Birkdale
2016 - Henrik Stenson (-20) - Royal Troon
2015 - Zach Johnson (-15) - St Andrews
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- Par 4 Scoring/Bogey Avoidance
Champion's Profile
Royal Portrush only has around 60 bunkers, which is one of the fewest among courses in the Open Championship rotation, but it is arguably one of the most demanding driving courses. The fairway bunkers are placed in most cases inside of the fairway lines and shrink the target lines even more. There is also plenty of internal out of bounds stakes, which will be at the front of mind for every player standing on the tee. Job one is putting the ball in the fairway with whatever club that might be with. Portrush is not a course like St Andrews where the bombers can abuse, poor drives with any club will be penalized and make for a challenging second shot.
The large majority of the greens at Portrush are raised up and fall off from multiple angles. That makes the putting surfaces play even smaller than they are. This is a course where you control into the greens needs to be on point, otherwise balls can feed off into collection areas that leave a very tough up-and-down. The contours on and around the greens are the biggest defense of the course. This week I'm really trying to focus on players who drive it straight, have great control with their irons and are solid around the greens. Lowry and Fleetwood finished 1-2 here in 2019 and used much the same formula.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($13,900)
This might be the one major where you could see Scheffler's ownership dip a bit because it's a links style course and he's still $2,000 more than the second-highest priced player of McIlroy. Scheffler is still looking for his first top-5 at The Open, but his finishes have been pretty solid going T8-T21-T23-T7 in four career starts. He also comes into the week having finished top-10 in his last 10 starts overall. Scheffler is the straightest among the long drivers, the best iron player in the world and a wizard around the greens.
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,500)
Fleetwood checks all the boxes for Portrush. He drives it very straight, ranks 9th in SG: Approach and 17th in SG: Around-the-Green. The Englishman owns four top-7s in his last eight starts and has been strong at The Open recently, racking up four top-12s in his last six tries in this championship. There's still a bit of a mental hurdle for him to get over to win on the PGA Tour, but he's won seven times on the DP World Tour and is very comfortable with this style of golf. Fleetwood also has an extremely high floor compared to some of the options below him in the $11K range.
Viktor Hovland ($10,700)
The short game is still a bit inconsistent, but the ball-striking, and in particular the iron play, is hard to resist. Hovland ranks second to Scheffler in SG: Approach this season and leads the PGA Tour in approaches from outside of 100 yards. Apart from a freak neck injury at the Travelers when he was playing well, Hovland has made the cut in his last eight starts. That includes at win at the Valspar, a solo third at the U.S. Open and a T11 at the Scottish Open last week. Hovland has finished top-15 in three of his four career starts at The Open.
The Middle Tier
Russell Henley ($10,200)
Henley is underpriced again and he is a perfect fit for Royal Portrush. He checks all the boxes, ranking top-15 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR percentage, proximity and SG: Around-the-Green. Henley comes in having finished T5-T10-T2 in his last three starts and owns eight top-10s in 2025. He was solo fifth at The Open a year ago and should be in the mix again on the weekend this year.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,900)
Fitzpatrick really struggled out of the gate this year, but he's back to form after a T4 at the Scottish Open, which was his third top-10 and fifth top-25 in his last seven starts. During that stretch the Englishman has found a lot more fairways, hit it closer on approach and is thriving around the greens. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in his last five starts at The Open, including a T20 finish the last time it was held at Portrush in 2019.
Harry Hall ($9,000)
Hall comes into The Open having finished top-25 in his last seven starts and having made the cut in his last 12. Hall's combination of short game and putting is as strong as we've seen over the last several years on Tour. He ranks 15th in SG: Around-the-Green, eighth in scrambling, third in SG: Putting and first in putts per hole. Hall always gets the most out of his rounds as he sits third in birdie average, eighth in bogey avoidance and third in par-4 scoring.
The Long Shots
Nick Taylor ($8,200)
Taylor is my favorite value play this week because of his consistent play of late and course fit. The Canadian enters the final major of the year having finished top-25 in seven of his last eight starts, including a solo fourth at the Memorial. Taylor has gained strokes on approach in all of those events, and is up to 11th on the season in SG: Approach and 12th in GIR percentage. He is also 22nd in driving accuracy and 50th in scrambling for good measure.
Kristoffer Reitan ($7,700)
I was high on Reitan's prospects last week and he did not disappoint, even overcoming a slow start to finish T13. His ball-striking was very strong against a stellar field to help him rack up his sixth top-15 finish in his last eight starts. The Norwegian is great off the tee, which will be important on this demanding driving course. Reitan has also been hot with the putter during this run of great play.
Matt McCarty ($7,500)
McCarty notched his seventh top-25 in his last 13 starts at the Scottish Open with a T22 showing. The lefty is a strong course fit for Portrush ranking 24th in driving accuracy, 35th in scrambling and having gained on approach in his last three starts. McCarty also sits 24th in SG: Putting and fifth in par-3 scoring, which could be key on this tricky set of short holes. McCarty was in the mix on the weekend at The Masters and it wouldn't surprise me to see him on the first page or two of the leaderboard this week.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The strength of the low $8K and high $7K range this week opens up a lot of different build options if DFS players want to start their lineup with Scheffler or double up in the $11K range at the top. Some top names I'll be avoiding this week are DeChambeau ($11,300) and Morikawa ($11,100). DeChambeau has always struggled at transitioning his game to links golf and Morikawa seems a bit all over the place mentally at the moment.
There was a pretty noticeable difference last week in the two sides of the draw that we were able to hit on. Scoring was much better for the PM/AM wave and probably ended up in a good week for those who went with that stack. Fingers crossed, but it doesn't look like we will see much of a difference in waves this week at Royal Portrush. The wind conditions look to be pretty similar for both sides, but there's still a chance that one end might have to play in more rain than the other. Rain clouds can just pop up out of nowhere here so it's difficult to project. Everyone also goes off of the 1st tee at The Open, so the tee times are even more spread out that usual. It's typically around 10 hours from the first group to the last in the opening two rounds. All that to say, hopefully we won't see much of a difference, but it is probably still worth stacking one side or the other if you are making multiple lineups on FanDuel.
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