This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 78 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Vicente Luque (21-9-1) v. Rafael dos Anjos (32-14-0)
DK Salaries: Luque ($8,000), Dos Anjos ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Luque (+100), Dos Anjos (-120)
Odds to Finish: -170
Luque has been a solid, underrated fighter for a long time, but set to turn 32 years of age in late-November and the loser of back-to-back fights (Belal Muhammad, Geoff Neal), time is about up. Now, Muhammad is a stud and Luque had his moments in the Neal fight, so all is not lost, but a three-fight long streak would be a death sentence for Vicente's slim title hopes.
Dos Anjos has bounced back and forth between lightweight and welterweight of late, most recently submitting an overmatched Bryan Barberena last December at 170 pounds. RDA will be 39 years of age in late October, and he's massively undersized for welterweight, but lightweight is the much, much more loaded division, so there's no clear answer here.
I've long maintained that it's difficult to consistently emerge victorious against quality competition when you're paying as little attention to defense as Luque does. The type of fighter that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own, Vicente averages 5.49 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 5.51 per minute. A top-tier opponent is going to use that aggressiveness against you and make you pay.
The one area Luque should have an edge is durability. As much punishment as he's absorbed over the years, he's still been knocked out just once, by Neal in his last fight. RDA, on the other hand, has been stopped via strikes four times in his long career.
I mentioned how undersized dos Anjos is for the division. He's going to be giving up three inches in height and a whopping six inches in reach to Luque. That said, it's easier to get inside against a larger opponent when that opponent is as aggressive as Vicente.
I can't remember the last UFC main event that I had so little feel for. I struggled with a pick when it was first announced, and that hasn't changed. I'm intrigued by Luque's size edge and think he can give dos Anjos real problems at distance, but I ultimately don't trust his fight IQ. I can easily see RDA using Vicente's aggressiveness against him and picking up key takedowns when opportunities present themselves. I'll side with the veteran in a closely contested-decision.
THE PICK: Dos Anjos
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Cub Swanson (28-13-0) v. Hakeem Dawodu (13-3-1)
DK Salaries: Swanson ($7,200), Dawodu ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Swanson (+190), Dawodu (-230)
Odds to Finish: -125
Set to turn 40 years of age in early November, Swanson is 3-2 in his past five fights -- this on the heels of a four-fight losing streak. Cub certainly isn't the fighter of his heyday, but his six most recent defeats came at the hands of Jonathan Martinez, Giga Chikadze, Shane Burgos, Renato Moicano, Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega -- not bad competition. I imagine Swanson can hang around a while longer as long as long as the UFC is careful regarding who they match him up against moving forward. It's worth noting that the Martinez fight took place at bantamweight, while this will be Cub's natural 145-pound weight class.
Dawodu has lost two of three on the heels of a five-fight winning streak. The most recent defeat against Charles Rosa last September was particularly painful, as Dawodu missed weight by a whopping 3.5 pounds in the process. Three of Hakeem's victories in that previously mentioned streak came via split decision, so he's been nowhere near as dominant as his record may lead you to believe.
I would be totally flabbergasted if this quickly deteriorates into anything other than a back-and-forth kickboxing match. Dawodu has yet to land a single takedown in his UFC career, while Cub is averaging 1.09 per 15 minutes. I think Swanson would be wise to try and get this fight to the mat given the likely massive edge he has in that area, but I'm far from confident that will be his game plan. I'd be much, much more comfortable backing him if that was the case.
Assuming it remains on the feet, we have to take durability into account. Dawodu has never been knocked out, while Cub has been stopped via strikes three times in 41 fights, a shockingly low number for a guy that turned pro way back in July 2004.
Dawodu is nearly eight years younger than Cub and definitely has the edge in pure power. That said, I fail to see how he should be such a significant favorite here. Even in his strong performances of late, he hasn't been all that impressive. Swanson's salary is so low that I love him as an underdog play. In fact, I'm going to take him outright to win. The value is just too great to pass on.
THE PICK: Swanson
Light Heavyweight
Khalil Rountree (12-5-0, 1NC) v. Chris Daukaus (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Rountree ($8,900), Daukaus ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Rountree (-190), Daukaus (+160)
Odds to Finish: -450
This fight was due to happen a couple months ago before an undisclosed Daukaus injury forced it to be pushed back.
The loser of three in a row all via knockout, this is last call for Daukaus, who will almost certainly be fighting for his job on Saturday night. It's been a swift and sudden fall from grace for the soon-to-be 34-year-old Philadelphia native, as Daukaus won his first four fights with the company via knockout, the last three of which earned him a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus.
Rountree enters have won three straight, which makes this matchmaking all the more awkward. To be fair, Rountree didn't deserve his split decision victory over Dustin Jacoby in his most recent bout last October. He is 7-5 (1NC) in his first 13 bouts with the company, displaying big power, poor fight IQ and questionable cardio. I always found Rountree to be an underrated athlete, but at age 33, he could very easily be slipping in that area.
This would seem like an exceptionally bad matchup for Daukaus. His fight IQ is even worse than Rountree's. He pushes forward without any real plan, which combined with his lack of durability, figures to negate the two-inch edge in height he will enter with. Rountree also should have a significant edge in terms of pure stopping power.
So, the question becomes how does Daukaus win this fight? Well, I'm not really sure. Neither man has a submission win in their respective careers and neither has landed a single successful takedown during their time with the company, which seems impossible, but I ensure you is entirely true.
Rountree's salary is a good $500 or so higher than I would typically be comfortable playing him at, but Daukaus is an easy fade at this point.
THE PICK: Rountree
Women's Strawweight
Polyana Viana (13-5-0) v. Iasmin Lucindo (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Viana ($7,500), Lucindo ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Viana (+160), Lucindo (-190)
Odds to Finish: +115
Viana's 4-4 record in eight career UFC bouts is pretty ugly on the surface, but the fact she is still with the company is amazing considering her three-fight losing streak from August 2018 to August 2019. She's won three of four since, most recently a knockout over Jinh Yu Frey last November. Viana has consistently been overwhelmed by better competition, although it's certainly up for debate as to whether or not Lucindo falls into the category.
Iasmin has far more theoretical upside considering she won't be turning 22 years of age until next January. This will be her third UFC bouts. Lucindo rebounded nicely from a unanimous decision defeat to Yazmin Jauregui in her company debut to take a unanimous decision from Brogan Walker this past April. It's certainly worth mentioning that Viana, despite her inconsistencies, is lightyears better than Walker.
Lucindo should have the edge in the stand-up, but Viana is no slouch on the feet. Her knockout of Frey was the fifth of her career in 18 pro bouts, a perfectly solid number for a woman that competes at 115 pounds.
I'm interested in seeing if Lucindo tries to get this fight to the mat. She landed four successful takedowns on Walker on five attempts, but managed just 46 seconds worth of control time in the process. She needs to do a better job of control her opposition from a positional standpoint, something that will almost certainly improve as she gains more experience. Viana's takedown defense is a mediocre 50 percent.
The Vegas odds for this fight seem fine, but I'd pass on Lucindo from a DK perspective, even if I expect her to win. Viana tends to absorb fairly little damage on the feet (2.86 significant strikes per minute), meaning you are relying on Lucindo's grappling game to pay off. It's too small a margin for error at such a high price tag.
THE PICK: Lucindo
OTHER BOUTS
Middleweight
A.J. Dobson (6-2-0, 1NC) v. Tafon Nchukwi (6-3-0)
DK Salaries: Dobson ($7,800), Nchukwi ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Dobson (+120), Nchukwi (-140)
Odds to Finish: -155
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: Dobson
Middleweight
Josh Fremd (10-4-0) v. Jamie Pickett (13-9-0)
DK Salaries: Fremd ($9,400), Pickett ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Fremd (-325), Pickett (+265)
Odds to Finish: -200
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: Fremd
Bantamweight
JP Buys (9-5-0) v. Marcus McGhee (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Buys ($6,600), McGhee ($9.600)
Vegas Odds: Buys (+280), McGhee (-355)
Odds to Finish: -450
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: McGhee
Featherweight
Francis Marshall (7-1-0) v. Isaac Dulgarian (5-0-0)
DK Salaries: Marshall ($8,500), Dulgarian ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Marshall (-170), Dulgarian (+140)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: Marshall
Heavyweight
Josh Parisian (15-6-0) v. Martin Buday (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Parisian ($7,400), Buday ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Parisian (+180), Buday (-215)
Odds to Finish: -120
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: Buday
Women's Strawweight
Jaqueline Amorim (6-1-0) v. Montserrat Ruiz (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Amorin ($9,100), Ruiz ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Amorin (-240), Ruiz (+195)
Odds to Finish: -175
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: Amorim
Women's Flyweight
Juliana Miller (4-2-0) v. Luana Santos (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Miller ($7,900), Santos ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+130), Santos (-155)
Odds to Finish: +150
UFC VEGAS 78 PICK: Santos
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 78 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
