This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 92 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 92 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Edson Barboza (24-11-0) v. Lerone Murphy (13-0-1)
DK Salaries: Barboza ($7,700), Murphy ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (+125), Murphy (-150)
Barboza turned 38 this past January, and while he still has some gas left in the tank, he's far from the guy we saw in his prime. He's fresh off back-to-back wins over quality opponents Sodiq Yusuff (unanimous decision) and Billy Quarantillo (knockout). Before that, Edson lost five of his previous seven fights. The UFC needs to be careful regarding who it matches Barboza up against moving forward.
Murphy deserves this opportunity. He has won five fights in a row on the heels of a draw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut back in September 2019. Lerone is a solid all-around fighter. I wouldn't say he has one elite skill, but he's durable, athletic and seems to process things extremely well inside the Octagon. I could easily seem him being a top-10 featherweight at some point.
The biggest thing Barboza has going for him in this fight is his experience. He's been in the Octagon with the likes of Bryce Mitchell, Giga Chikadze, Dan Ige, Paul Felder, Justin Gaethje, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Beniel Dariush, Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, and Tony Ferguson. Murphy's two best UFC victories are over Douglas Silva de Andrade and Josh Culibao. Experience matters, particularly in big spots. This is Murphy's first main event with the UFC. It will be Edson's fifth.
Barboza's defense has understandably been trending in the wrong direction as he has aged. His footwork has evaporated, and he's struggling to get his head off the center line with any consistency. His leg kicks can be devastating, and it has typically taken plenty of punishment to get him out of there, but I'd by lying if I said I wasn't worried about his ability to consistently defend himself at this stage of his career.
Murphy is an accurate, smart striker, picking his spots well and setting up his combinations, but he isn't a high-volume guy. He lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute on average. In his last three fights, which went the distance, Lerone's significant strike counts were 59, 93, and 48. If this fight gets into the later rounds, I expect Barboza to blow past that type of volume if his defense holds up.
We've seen Edson pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time, but Lerone isn't your traditional wrestler. He averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Could I see him landing a well-timed shot or two on Barboza? Sure, but in a fight scheduled for 25 minutes, I highly doubt he's going to wipe Edson out with his wrestling game the majority of the bout.
I think that allows Barboza to get his striking game going at times and that ends up being enough to earn the win. A two-inch height and reach edge for Edson only serves to help matters. Give me the underdog.
THE PICK: Barboza
Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Khaos Williams (14-3-0) v. Carlston Harris (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Williams ($8,200), Harris ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Williams (-130), Harris (+110)
Williams hasn't been particularly active, fighting just once in 2022 and 2023, but his 5-2 UFC mark is quite a bit better than I would have originally predicted. He has a knockout win over Alex Morono on his ledger and hung tough in a unanimous decision loss to Randy Brown. Those are clear-cut top-15 guys at 170 pounds. I don't think there's much here in terms of ceiling, but Williams is a valuable member of the roster.
A native of Guyana and now 36 years of age, Harris bounced through countless different organizations before arriving in the UFC in May 2021. He's won four of five fights with the company, including a knockout win over Impa Kasanganay who has since gone on to be one of the best fighters in all the PFL. Harris also gets a pass for his lone setback, a knockout against a rising star in Shavkat Rakhmonov.
This looks like your typical striker v. grappler matchup.
Williams has legitimate, fight-ending power. He's a better athlete than he gets credit for, but has zero ground game to speak of and will only go as far as his hands take him. Khaos' game plan is the same each and every time out. He is going to thrown down in the center of the Octagon and hope his opponent folds before he does. Given the fact Williams has never been knocked out in his pro career, I'd say he's done a pretty good job given his limited offensive arsenal.
Harris isn't a traditional grappler, but he's far ahead of Williams in that area and it would seem to be by far his clearest path to victory here. He has a half-dozen career wins via submission and is averaging just over a couple takedowns per 15 minutes. Khaos does a nice job of staying upright, defending the takedown at an 80 percent clip. The only opponent to get him to the mat was Michel Pereira, twice, back in December 2020.
I imagine we'll find out quite quickly how this fight will play out, and it all comes down to how well Harris is able to handle the pressure of Williams.
I have time for Harris as an underdog play simply because I think Khaos will struggle off of his back if he hits the mat, but the latter's takedown defense has held up to date. I have a difficult time predicting Carlston -- who is landing just 29 percent of his takedown attempts -- will be able to suddenly up that number against Williams, a guy who has displayed the ability to remain upright in the past.
THE PICK: Williams
Welterweight
Adrian Yanez (16-5-0) v. Vinicius Salvador (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Yanez ($9,300), Salvador ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Yanez (-360), Salvador (+285)
It's all fallen apart on Yanez of late. He won his first five UFC bouts, including four via knockout, but has since been knocked out himself in back-to-back fights against Jonathan Martinez -- who was routed by Jose Aldo a couple weeks ago -- and Rob Font, who has lost four of his last five. I'll touch on the main reason for Yanez's struggles momentarily.
The good news for Yanez is that he's being gifted a layup here to potentially get back on track. The 27-year-old Salvador has lost both of his two official bouts with the company (C.J. Vergara, Victor Altamirano) via unanimous decision. The Brazilian earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win over Shannon Ross on Dana White's Contender Series, an opponent who himself was knocked out in each of his three fights with the company. In other words, it's possible Salvador isn't all that good.
The style with which Yanez fights gives his opponent a chance every time he steps into the Octagon. Adrian is a pure one-dimensional brawler. He has impressive power for a smaller fighter, but you aren't going to win consistently when you absorb 5.73 significant strikes per minute. I don't care if you're landing 6.15 per minute yourself, sooner or later, guys are going to start clipping you with regularity, and you're not going to survive. That's what has happened to Yanez of late.
That said, Salvador employs a similar style, except for the fact he has less power and zero notable victories in his career.
I don't think Yanez's future is all that bright because he has displayed zero means of generating secondary offense, but I'd also be very concerned if he isn't able to get past Salvador without issue.
It almost seems as if the UFC went out of its way to give him an opponent here that should allow Adrian to show off his greatest skills and not be too concerned with what is coming back his way in return.
THE PICK: Yanez
Women's Strawweight
Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0) v. Angela Hill (16-13-0)
DK Salaries: Pinheiro ($7,900), Hill ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Pinheiro (+115), Hill (-135)
Now 39 years of age, Hill has won three of her last four fights dating back to August 2022, which is quite an accomplishment considering she lost four of her prior five and appeared to be on her way to being released. Hill keeps herself in pristine condition and is tough as nails, having never been finished in 29 professional bouts. There's little long-term upside here, but Angie still has some gas left in the tank despite her advanced age.
Pinheiro began her UFC run with three straight wins before being knocked out by Amanda Ribas in her most recent bout last November. She racked up a ton of stoppage victories on the Brazilian regional scene, but that predictably hasn't translated against better competition. I expect Pinheiro to hover around the .500 mark moving forward.
The only thing I feel completely comfortable saying about this fight is that it will almost certainly go the distance. Each of Hill's last 11 bouts have seen the final bell. That is not a misprint. Her most recent non-decision was a knockout of Hannah Cifers back in January 2020.
Pinheiro has a theoretical grappling edge, but Hill is very difficult to takedown and deceptively strong for her size. Angie's 75 percent takedown defense is solid, and that's with some struggles of late. Luana would be wise to attempt to use her wrestling game because she's at real risk of getting overwhelmed with volume on the feet.
Hill is an excellent technical striker. She's prone to getting sucked into brawls at times, but I don't think Pinheiro has the stand-up abilities to make her pay. Luana lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.38. Hill is also an inch taller and will have a two-inch reach edge.
Pinheiro has a clear path to victory because one of two well-timed takedowns could win her this fight, but I think the most likely scenario in that Hill manages to remain upright and eventually wears her opponent down with volume, taking a close decision.
THE PICK: Hill
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Themba Gorimbo (12-4-0) v. Ramiz Brahimaj (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Gorimbo ($8,400), Brahimaj ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Gorimbo (-135), Brahimaj (+115)
THE PICK: Brahimaj
Lightweight
Victor Martinez (13-5-0) v. Tom Nolan (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($6,700), Nolan ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (+380), Nolan (-500)
THE PICK: Nolan
Women's Bantamweight
Tamires Vidal (7-2-0) v. Melissa Gatto (8-2-2)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Vidal (+270), Gatto (-340)
THE PICK: Gatto
Middleweight
Abus Magomedov (25-6-1) v. Warlley Alves (15-7-0)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($9,000), Alves ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-285), Alves (+230)
THE PICK: Magomedov
Women's Strawweight
Piera Rodriguez (9-1-0) v. Ariane Carnelossi (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,800), Carnelossi ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-200), Carnelossi (+165)
THE PICK: Carnelossi
Bantamweight
Heili Alateng (16-9-2) v. Kleydson Rodrigues (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Heili ($7,600), Rodrigues ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Heili (+130), Rodrigues (-155)
THE PICK: Rodrigues
Women's Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos (10-5-0) v. Emily Ducote (13-8-0)
DK Salaries: Demopoulos ($7,000), Ducote ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Demopoulos (+270), Ducote (-340)
THE PICK: Ducote
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 92 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
