UFC Perth DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Perth: Ulberg vs. Reyes. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg (13-1-0) v. Dominick Reyes (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ulberg ($9,300), Reyes ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Ulberg (-265), Reyes (+200)
Ulberg is the star of this show, and rightfully so. The New Zealand native has won eight fights in a row since being knocked out by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his UFC debut back in March 2021. Four of the eight victories have come via knockout. It's most certainly worth noting that the knockouts have dried up since Ulberg started facing a bit better competition. His best UFC victory is over Jan Blachowicz, who turned 42 years of age just prior to their fight this past March. Ulberg is a good fighter with a lot of potential, but it's not as if the guy has been rolling through the best the 205-pound division has to offer.
The fact Reyes is not only still with the UFC, but competing in the main event of a card is mind-blowing considering he lost four straight from February 2020 to November 2022. The start of that streak was his famed title fight against Jon Jones in which Reyes may very well have deserved the decision. Things just spiraled from there. To Dom's credit, he's turned things around of late winning three straight (Nikita Krylov, Anthony Smith, Dustin Jacoby), all via knockout, in the span of the past year-plus.
Ulberg is a technical kickboxer, It's very much arms and legs coming at you. He has power, but it's his volume in the stand-up that makes his especially dangerous. Carlos is averaging 6.77 significant strikes landed per minute. He strings together combinations and does so impressively.
Reyes is an all-action guy himself. He averages 5.58 significant strikes landed per minute, also a very high number.
Neither man really grapples, and I expect this to be a pure striking match.
I'm still worried about the durability of Reyes despite his recent run of success. He was knocked out in three consecutive fights by Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka and Ryan Spann following the Jones loss. He was on the sidelines from November 2022 to June 2024, and I think that definitely helped, but he'll be 36 years of age the day after Christmas, and it's not as if his chin has been tested much in recent fights. In the Krylov, Smith and Jacoby fights combined, Reyes had to absorb just 31 significant strikes. Ulberg can put that on him in under a round. Will he hold up? I have my doubts.
Sadly, you're going to have to pay up if you want to insert Ulberg in your lineup.
He seems overpriced to me by a good $300 or so, but nothing we've seen thus far in the brief Reyes turnaround leads me to believe it's going to continue against better competition. There's plenty of close to even money fights on this card, meaning you can save elsewhere. Ulberg is probably worth the price tag.
UFC PERTH PICK: Ulberg
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Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Jack Jenkins (13-4-0) v. Ramon Taveras (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Jenkins ($9,400), Taveras ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Jenkins (-295), Taveras (+220)
As the local Aussie, Jenkins is getting the rub here in a prominent spot on the card. He's 3-2 in his first five UFC bouts, but has lost two of his last three and the three wins are against about the lowest level of competition the 145-pound division has to offer (Herbert Burns, Jamall Emmers, Don Shainis). Jenkins is tough and has a well-rounded game, I just don't see him as a guy with very much upside. He's more solid roster depth for a company which holds an event most every Saturday.
The rare fighter than appeared on Dana White's Contender Series twice, Taveras was knocked out by Serhiy Sidey back in September 2023 and responded with a first-round knockout over Cortavious Romious a little over a month later. He made his official UFC debut in a rematch against Sidey in January and won via split decision. He was then given a much tougher test against Davey Grant last December and was predictably outgunned. A fight against Jenkins feels like a more reasonable matchup for all parties involved.
A good part of Jenkins' success is the result of grit and toughness. I wouldn't call him a great athlete, but he moves well enough and never gives up on himself. Three of his four career defeats have come via submission, but Taveras hasn't shown any real mat exploits during his brief UFC run.
I would by no means call Jenkins a high-volume striker, but the good news is that you don't have to be in order to pile up the damage against Taveras. Ramon is absorbing an insane 7.41 significant strikes per minute. He got blasted 147 times by Grant in a 15-minute bout his last time out. Outside of the flash 29-second knockout on DWCS, Taveras' stopping power hasn't carried over from the regional scene.
From a DK standpoint, this looks like a pass altogether.
There's zero chance Jenkins is worth $9,400. Heck, he costs more to use than Ulberg. Taveras obviously isn't an option because I refuse to back a guy that absorbs that much damage every single time out.
Between the two, I'd rather use Taveras, but as a I said, this is a pass. I do think Jenkins wins the fight, although my guess is that it's closer than these lopsided numbers would lead you to believe.
UFC PERTH PICK: Jenkins
Light Heavyweight
Jimmy Crute (13-4-2) v. Ivan Erslan (14-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Crute ($8,900), Erslan ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Crute (-180), Erslan (+150)
Crute snapped a five-fight winless streak (0-3-2) with a first-round submission win over Marcin Prachnio in July. It was a performance that not only saved his job, but provided renewed hope that Crute, still just 29 years old, can still make some sort of run in a thin 205-pound division. Jimmy is entirely untrustworthy and has essentially retired in the past, but he's not without some talent and the pickings at light heavyweight are quite bare at the moment.
Erslan had a bunch of success on the European regional scene, almost always via knockout, prior to his UFC arrival. He's found things more since the move, suffering a unanimous decision loss to Navajo Stirling and a split decision defeat to Ion Cutelaba in his two fights with the company. The stopping power hasn't translated and with Ivan getting set to turn 34 years of age in November, I don't see things changing.
Crute is a tough and determined fighter. His gas tank isn't good, but he goes very hard early in fights and that may very well be all it takes to get Erslan out of there. Or, at a minimum, be enough to bank two rounds in the eyes of the judges.
Jimmy is averaging 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's by no means a technical wizard when it comes to grappling, but Crute is strong and I could very easily see him muscling in for a few takedowns early on when both men are fresh.
Crute has been knocked out twice and I don't trust his durability. That said, Erslan appears to be knockout-or-bust at this stage of his UFC run. He's low volume, landing a grand total of 75 significant strikes in his half hour inside the octagon.
Again, do you really want to be spending $8,900 on a guy that is 1-3-2 in his past five six fights and has just a single victory dating back to October 2020?
This card is full of situations like that, although I will say that Crute has a clear path to victory with his grappling. The hope is he can drain Erslan's gas tank early on and cruise to the win.
UFC PERTH PICK: Crute
Welterweight
Jake Matthews (22-7-0) v. Neil Magny (30-14-0)
DK Salaries: Matthews ($9,600), Magny ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-520), Magny (+350)
No longer considered a prospect at age 31, Matthews is in the midst of his best UFC run to date. He's won three straight dating back to June 2024, with his 69-second submission win over Chidi Njokuani in July one of his best performances with the company. Matthews has struggled with consistency in the past, but it's worth noting that he's 8-3 in his past 11 fights and two of those three defeats came against a pair of guys legitimately closing in on title shots in Michael Morales and Sean Brady. Matthews will almost certainly never reach the lofty ceiling many predicted upon his company arrival, but he's a talented guy.
Magny turned 38 years of age in August and his 23 UFC victories are most in the company's welterweight history. Neil lost three of four from August 2023 to November 2024. He was in dire straits early on against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos this past August, but he survived the flurry and was eventually able to get ZDS out of there late in Round 2. The UFC has done no favors for Magny in regards to competition level faced of lateand this too is a difficult fight. Why Neil has to get back in there less than two months after his most recent fight is beyond me, but he's never been one to turn down a challenge.
Matthews is plenty big for the 170-pound division at 5-foot-11, but he's giving up a ton of size to Magny. Neil is four inches taller and will have a whopping seven-inch reach advantage. Back in his hey day, Magny was really good at using distance to his advantage. He's one of the best fighters in UFC history at tailoring his game plan to his specific opposition, but he's predictably having a more difficult time with that in the latter stages of his career as his athleticism has waned some.
Matthews is largely a generalist. I'd say his grappling is better than his striking, but I don't think he has one elite skill to fall back upon in the event of trouble.
The good news for Jake is that Magny has really struggled to generate offense of late. His sudden beatdown of Zaleski dos Santos feels more fluky than anything else. The Brazilian gassed out and Neil took advantage. My guess is that if he's going to emerge victorious here, it's going to come via decision. Matthews has been submitted three times in his career, but just once since December 2018.
Not all that long ago, this is the type of fight in which I would have loved to back Magny as an underdog. He would make it a grinding, 50/50 fight, and considering how cheap the price is, it made for a smart dice roll.
Now a days? I think Matthews, on his home turf, overwhelms him. I'm not rushing to back Jake as the highest priced fighter on the card, but I could see him making this look easy. Sadly, I think Neil is shot.
UFC PERTH PICK: Matthews
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Justin Tafa (7-5-0, 1NC) v. Louie Sutherland (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($8,400), Sutherland ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (-125), Sutherland (+105)
UFC PERTH PICK: Sutherland
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Lightweight
Tom Nolan (9-1-0) v. Charlie Campbell (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nolan ($8,600), Campbell ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Nolan (-160), Campbell (+125)
UFC PERTH PICK: Nolan
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling (7-0-0) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Stirling ($9,100), Bellato ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Stirling (-245), Bellato (+185)
UFC PERTH PICK: Stirling
Middleweight
Cam Rowston (12-3-0) v. Andre Petroski (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Rowston ($7,700), Petroski ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Rowston (+125), Petroski (-150)
UFC PERTH PICK: Rowston
Welterweight
Jonathan Micallef (8-1-0) v. Oban Elliott (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Micallef ($7,900), Elliott ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Micallef (+105), Elliott (-135)
UFC PERTH PICK: Elliott
Lightweight
Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0) v. Rolando Bedoya (14-4-0)
DK Salaries; Mullarkey ($7,900), Bedoya ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Mullarkey (-105), Bedoya (-115)
UFC PERTH PICK: Bedoya
Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse (7-1-0) v. Josias Musasa (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Thicknesse ($7,500), Musasa ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Thicknesse (+135), Musasa (-160)
UFC PERTH PICK: Musasa
Women's Bantamweight
Michelle Montague (6-0-0) v. Luana Carolina (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Montague ($9,000), Carolina ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Montague (-210), Carolina (+175)
UFC PERTH PICK: Carolina
Heavyweight
Brando Pericic (4-1-0) v. Elisha Ellison (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Pericic ($8,800), Ellison ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Pericic (-200), Ellison (+170)
UFC PERTH PICK: Percic
Women's Strawweight
Loma Lookboonmee (10-3-0) v. Alexia Thainara (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Lookboonmee ($7,000), Thainara ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Lookboonmee (+200), Thainara (-240)
UFC PERTH PICK: Thainara
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
