Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
UFC Rio DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Charles Oliveira (35-11-0, 1NC) v. Mateusz Gamrot (25-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($7,800), Gamrot ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-105), Gamrot (-120)
This main event was scheduled to be Oliveira and Rafael Fiziev before the latter was forced to withdraw due to a knee issue. Gamrot is looking at roughly three weeks' notice by the time he steps into the Octagon on Saturday.
The star of this show is Oliveira. Charles will be turning 36 years of age six days after this event takes place, but he remains as popular as ever, especially in his native Brazil. Oliveira has alternated losses and wins in his past five fights, with the setbacks coming against Ilia Topuria, Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev, with the Topuria and Makhachev bouts being title fights. Charles still has plenty of gas left in the tank, but matching him up against those three guys, arguably the best in the sport, is a big ask.
Gamrot has won four of five, including a victory over Fiziev, so he's deserving of the opportunity and a perfectly reasonable late-notice replacement. He'll be 35 years old in December, so this sort of feels like a must-win for Gamrot, even though it's in enemy territory and on short notice, if he wants to make a legitimate push in a loaded lightweight division.
I'm fascinated to see how this fight plays out.
Neither of these guys prefer to get involved in prolonged stand-up exchanges. Both have below-average striking defense and are often sucked into brawls on the feet. It would be wildly entertaining should it happen, but it just doesn't feel like the best course of action for either man.
Gamrot's success is almost entirely tied to the effectiveness of his grappling game. He averages 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least four takedowns in seven of his last eight fights. Charles' 56 percent takedown defense is misleading. He's given up just four takedowns in his past nine fights and that was two apiece against Tsarukyan and Makhachev. That said, Gamrot knows where his bread is buttered, and I expect him to get Oliveira to the mat sooner or later.
Of course, willingly going to the mat with Charles is exactly what he's hoping for. Oliveira has the most submission wins (16) and most stoppage wins (20) in UFC history. His opposition is in immediate danger on the mat. Gamrot is going to have to be exceedingly careful from top position. For what it's worth, Mateusz has never been submitted in his professional career.
I've gone back and forth here on a pick.
Oliveira has been inconsistent lately, but he's losing to the best of the best. I agree with Gamrot being a slight favorite. Yet, Gamrot's greatest strength plays directly into Charles' greatest strength. I believe those mat skills, combined with the slight bump he figures to get from the home crowd, are enough to help Oliveira pull off a very mild upset.
UFC RIO PICK: Oliveira
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Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) v. Montel Jackson (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Figueiredo ($7,200), Jackson ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Figueiredo (+220), Jackson (-295)
Figueiredo is now five fights deep into his bantamweight run after moving up from flyweight in December 2023. He won his first three, but has lost two straight since to Petr Yan (unanimous decision) and Cory Sandhagen (knee injury). The Sandhagen fight took place this past May, so it clearly wasn't a serious ailment if he's already ready to go in September. Figueiredo will be 38 years old in December, so he needs to snap this losing streak immediately.
Jackson has been one of the most underrated bantamweights on the roster for years. His main issue has been inactivity. He's won nine of 10 fights, but those 10 fights date back to December 2018. This will be Jackson's second fight in 2025, marking the first time he's fought twice in a calendar year since 2021. The upside here is legitimate if Jackson can just stay healthy and compete on even a semi-regular basis.
Figueiredo was averaged-sized for flyweight and had massive power for the division. Simply put, the power hasn't translated at bantamweight, and he's the smaller man most every single time out. He's giving up five inches in height and seven inches in reach here. I'm expecting Figueiredo to look roughly half Jackson's size when the two step into the Octagon.
The majority of Figueiredo's success at bantamweight has come as a result of him landing takedowns. There's been no real backup plan for the Brazilian besides positional control time. Jackson's takedown defense is far from flawless, but he's so much bigger than Figueiredo that I can't imagine the latter is going to be able to continuously grapple him without issue.
The fact this is a three-round fight definitely should help Deiveson. There's a non-zero chance he can secure enough control time in two of the rounds to take a decision. That's much more difficult in a five-round bout.
He's not the worst underdog play in the world if you want to go with a bunch of other favorites and punt the $7,200 the Brazilian costs, but I think Jackson is the better fighter at this stage of his respective career, and his price tag looks quite fair.
UFC RIO PICK: Jackson
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Heavyweight
Jhonata Diniz (9-1-0) v. Mario Pinto (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Diniz ($7,900), Pinto ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Diniz (-120), Pinto (-105)
Counting his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, Diniz won each of his first six professional fights via first-round knockout. He's found life more difficult since officially joining the UFC roster, going 3-1 with just one knockout win and a knockout loss on his resume. A former professional kickboxer, Diniz is your classical one-dimensional heavyweight striker. He's by no means a plodder, and shows above-average footwork at times, but Diniz has zero means of generating secondary offense if his power shots aren't landing.
Pinto, a native of Portugal, falls into a similar boat. That being, a lot of first-round knockouts on the regional scene, a first-round knockout on Dana White's Contender Series, and a second-round knockout over Austen Lane in his official company debut in March. Lane is one of the easiest guys in the division to fight because he comes in on a straight line to the point he's willing to take a beating. I'm not going to claim to have a great breakdown on Pinto after all of 5:39 seconds with the UFC.
Checking out the size of each man isn't going to tell us much, either. Pinto is an inch taller, both men have a 79-inch reach.
This feels for all the world like a 50/50 fight.
I expect both men to be swinging for the bleachers from the very start, and I have zero reason to believe the fight will last long given what we have seen from both men to date.
This card on the whole isn't particularly deep, but I still can't help but think the best plan here is to pass on this fight altogether.
From a DraftKings standpoint, I'm going with my usual method when I'm entirely undecided and not confident. That, is picking the cheaper guy. In this case, that's the $400 savings Diniz provides.
THE PICK: Diniz
Welterweight
Vicente Luque (23-11-1) v. Joel Alvarez (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Luque ($6,700), Alvarez ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Luque (+350), Alvarez (-520)
Alvarez is in here for an injured Santiago Ponzinibbio and will be moving up to welterweight to make it happen.
Luque has essentially just been treading water for the better part of four years now. He's 2-4 in his past six fights, with three of those four setbacks coming via stoppage (two knockouts, one submission). His lone victories during that stretch were a 52-second submission win over Themba Gorimbo and a main event unanimous decision over an aging Rafael dos Anjos in which Luque flipped the script entirely and wrestled the entire fight. I'm not convinced he's going to be able to turn things around to any notable extent. The fact this is a very tough fight doesn't help matters, either.
Alvarez has won three in a row and seven of eight, all via stoppage. The lone setback during that streak came against an elite opponent in Arman Tsarukyan. He has missed weight twice in his UFC run, so the move up to 170 pounds was inevitable at some point. It's worth noting that Alvarez hasn't exactly been facing a murderer's row of competition of late. The best win of the bunch was probably over Drakkar Klose his last time out.
At 6-foot-3, Alvarez was about the biggest lightweight on the roster. He had a massive size edge over every single opponent he faced, and unlike many taller fighters, Joel knows how to use his size and length to his advantage.
For what it's worth, he's four inches taller than Luque and will have a two-inch edge in reach despite the fact he's the one moving up a weight class.
I'm having a hard time find a path to victory for Vicente here. He's getting hit more than ever in the latter stages of his career, and his durability is trending in the wrong direction. He's never been much of a grappler, averaging less than one takedown (0.97) per 15 minutes. Luque is very much a generalist, and while he's talented enough to defeat a lot of guys still at age 34 (in November), I don't want to be back him against legitimate quality opposition in Alvarez.
Alvarez is probably the easiest pick on the card, but you're going to have to pay to find out. He's also the second-highest priced fighter, $100 cheaper than Bia Mesquita, a BJJ Hall of Famer making her UFC debut at age 34.
UFC RIO PICK: Alvarez
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Ricardo Ramos (17-7-0) v. Kaan Ofli (12-4-1)
DK Salaries: Ramos ($8,800), Ofli ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Ramos (-190), Ofli (+150)
THE PICK: Ramos
Featherweight
Lucas Almeida (15-4-0) v. Michael Aswell (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Almeida ($7,600), Aswell ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Almeida (+120), Aswell (-150)
THE PICK: Aswell
Flyweight
Jafel Filho (16-4-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Filho ($8,000), Carpenter ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Filho (-105), Carpenter (-120)
THE PICK: Carpenter
Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (12-2-0) v. Thomas Petersen (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,100), Petersen ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-295), Petersen (+220)
THE PICK: Petersen
Women's Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita (5-0-0) v. Irina Alekseeva (5-3-0)
DK Salaries: Mesquita ($9,600), Alekseeva ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Mesquita (-670), Alekseeva (+430)
THE PICK: Mesquita
Flyweight
Lucas Rocha (17-2-0) v. Stewart Nicoll (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Rocha ($8,500), Nicoll ($7,700)
DK Salries: Rocha (-130), Nicoll (+100)
THE PICK: Nicoll
Heavyweight
Valter Walker (14-1-0) v. Mohammed Usman (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Walker ($9,200), Usman ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Walker (-330), Usman (+240)
THE PICK: Walker
Women's Strawweight
Julia Polastri (13-5-0) v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9-0)
DK Salaries: Polastri ($9,400), Kowalkiewicz ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Polastri (-430), Kowalkiewicz (+300)
THE PICK: Polastri
Bantamweight
Luan Lacerda (12-3-0) v. Saimon Oliveira (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Lacerda ($8,900), Oliveira ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Lacerda (-265), Oliveira (+200)
THE PICK: Lacerda
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
