This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's Noche UFC card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Josefine Knutsson (6-0-0) v. Marnic Mann (6-1-0)
Josefine Knutsson - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 60" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 1 finishes in 6 wins
Marnic Mann - Height: 5'0" - Reach: 64" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Both ladies are making their UFC debuts. Mann is the more dangerous of the two but lacks defense and technical striking. Knutsson is a high-rising prospect with a well-rounded game. She is not the most dangerous finisher, but she is a clean striker with good volume. I do not trust either fighter and do not expect a high score to come out of this fight, making it pure GPP.
UFC Noche Pick: Knuttson
Charlie Campbell (7-2-0) v. Alex Reyes (13-3-0)
Alex Reyes - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Charlie Campbell - Height: 6'0" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Reyes is attempting a comeback, having last fought in 2017. There is no telling how he will handle this fight. Campbell is making his UFC debut and could not ask for a better matchup. A finish is likely, making him one of the safest plays on the card.
UFC Noche Pick: Campbell
Tracy Cortez (10-1-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-2-0)
Tracy Cortez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 10 wins
Jasmine Jasudavicius - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This is as close to a 50-50 fight as it gets. Whoever gets the takedowns and control is going to win this fight, as the striking should be close. If there is no striking, this fight will yield a low score. I expect Cortez to be the better wrestler, but she could struggle with Jasudavicius's pressure.
UFC Noche Pick: Cortez
Edgar Chairez (10-5-0) v. Daniel Lacerda (11-5-0)
Edgar Chairez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Daniel Lacerda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Lacerda is getting his fifth fight in the UFC, with the first four ending with him getting finished. He is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, and that will continue in this one. Chairez has an excellent chance to give Lacerda his fifth consecutive loss and is one of the best plays on the card.
UFC Noche Pick: Chairez
Roman Kopylov (11-2-0) v. Josh Fremd (11-4-0)
Roman Kopylov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Josh Fremd - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: After Fremd struggled in his last fight against a lesser fighter, I do not take much stock in him. If he can get this fight to the mat, I would give him the leg up. However, Kopylov has excellent takedown defense. Kopylov will be leagues better on the feet and likely ends this by knockout.
UFC Noche Pick: Kopylov
Lupita Godinez (10-3-0) v. Elise Reed (7-3-0)
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 10 wins
Elise Reed - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Reed has a puncher's chance if she can keep this on the feet. However, Godinez has excellent trips and single-legs and should not have any issue getting this to the mat, where she will dominate. If Godinez shoots early and often, she could shatter value. If this turns into a striking match, a lower score is likely.
UFC Noche Pick: Godinez
Fernando Padilla (15-4-0) v. Kyle Nelson (14-5-1)
Fernando Padilla - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Kyle Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Nelson ended his three-fight losing streak in his most recent fight, but it was nothing impressive. I expect Padilla to cruise to another early finish. He should be better everywhere and control where the fight goes. Padilla is one of my locks of the card and will be excellent for DFS.
UFC Noche Pick: Padilla
Daniel Zellhuber (13-1-0) v. Christos Giagos (20-10-0)
Daniel Zellhuber - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 68" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Christos Giagos - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Giagos will make an interesting GPP play if he throws kicks early to slow Zellhuber down. However, I expect the power and volume from Zellhuber to be too much. Zellhuber should be better everywhere and dictate the pace of the fight. He should eventually wear Giagos down for a finish.
UFC Noche Pick: Zellhuber
Raul Rosas Jr. (7-1-0) v. Terrence Mitchell (14-3-0)
Raul Rosas Jr. - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Terrence Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Rosas experienced his first professional loss in his most recent fight and has been given a fight that should get him back on track. He still has much to be desired on the feet, but his grappling is elite. Mitchell, who was knocked out in his debut, will have a considerable edge on the feet but will have a difficult time keeping it there. He will have his chances during their grappling exchanges as well. Rosas should win, but Mitchell has a chance to score an upset.
UFC Noche Pick: Mitchell
Kevin Holland (25-9-0) v. Jack Della Maddalena (15-2-0)
Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 25 wins
Jack Della Maddalena - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Maddalena struggled in his last fight against a debuting fighter and could have arguably lost. Holland is a considerable step up from the competition he has faced. If he starts fast, he could record another early knockout, though Holland is as tough as they come. If Holland were to grapple, I would give him the edge in the fight. I consider this a toss-up, but I will ride with the more experienced dog.
UFC Noche Pick: Holland
Alexa Grasso (16-3-0) v. Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-0)
Alexa Grasso - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 16 wins
Valentina Shevchenko - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: The rematch to secure the belt. Grasso had a hail-mary choke to submit Shevchenko late in round four to end the title defense of the champ. Shevchenko had been dominating the fight up until that point, and I expect her to get right back to that form. Shevchenko is one of my favorite plays on the slate, and likely be the last time she will priced under 9k for quite a while.
UFC Noche Pick: Shevchenko
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
