This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 80 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1) v. JJ Aldrich (12-6-0)
Montana De La Rosa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
JJ Aldrich - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 3 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is about as close a fight as it gets. Whoever gets the takedown and control first in each round is likely to win that round. Aldrich has struggled against higher levels of competition, and while De La Rosa is 1-3-1 over her last five, she has faced quality opponents and fought well. I expect De La Rosa to control the pace and get the early takedowns to seal each round.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: De La Rosa
Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-3-0) v. Aori Qileng (24-11-0)
Johnny Munoz - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Aori Qileng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a low-level bantamweight fight. Both fighters are 2-3 in their UFC tenures, each coming from a loss. I would give Aori an edge on the feet and Munoz the edge on the mat. If Munoz avoids the knockout, I expect him to find enough success on the mat to win two rounds or record an early submission.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Munoz Jr.
Kanako Murata (12-2-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5-0)
Kanako Murata - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
Vanessa Demopoulos - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 59" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Demopoulos's best path to win is to keep this on the feet. However, I do not see her having much success in doing so. I expect Murata to find early success with takedowns and keep Demopoulos controlled on the mat for several minutes, ultimately winning a unanimous decision.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Murata
Nate Maness (14-3-0) v. Mateus Mendonca (10-1-0)
Nate Maness - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Mateus Mendonca - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an entertaining fight for as long as it lasts. Both guys fight at a high pace and love to apply constant pressure. Maness is riding a two-fight losing streak, and it does not get any easier here. Mendonca lost his UFC debut, but it one of the more exciting prospects in the UFC. I expect the grappling to be close, but Mendonca has a considerable edge on the feet, which should be the difference. This is a great fight to target for DFS.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Mendonca
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (15-7-0) v. Diana Belbita (15-7-0)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 15 wins
Diana Belbita - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: After losing five in a row with thoughts of retirement, Kowalkiewicz has rattled off three consecutive wins. In her most recent fight, Belbita got herself back in the win column, moving her to 2-3 in the UFC. I expect the fight to primarily take place on the feet, where it should be pretty even. The ground game will likely be the difference in this one, and Belbita should be the stronger of the two on the ground.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Belbita
Philipe Lins (17-5-0) v. Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1)
Philipe Lins - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
Ion Cutelaba - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Lins is riding a three-fight winning streak, albeit against lower-level competition. In his most recent fight, Cutelaba won just the second of his last eight fights dating back to 2020. I expect Cutelaba to have the edge everywhere, but his cardio is sometimes concerning. If his cardio holds, he should smash his price tag and win handily.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Cutelaba
Bill Algeo (17-7-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (14-6-0)
Bill Algeo - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
Alexander Hernandez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Another fight that should be close and likely goes to the judge's scorecards. Algeo will have an edge in volume and grappling, while Hernandez will have an edge in power and wrestling. I do not see a high score coming out of this fight without a finish. If there is a finish, it will likely come from Hernandez, making him a solid GPP dart throw.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Algeo
Drew Dober (26-12-0) v. Rick Glenn 22-7-2)
Drew Dober - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 26 wins
Rick Glenn - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Glenn has an outside chance to record a knockout and considerable upset, but I do not see it happening. Dober will be better everywhere and has fought the better competition. I expect Dober to control this fight and win either by knockout or unanimous decision.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Dober
Alex Morono (23-8-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (16-6-0)
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Buckley is always live for an early knockout and recorded one in three of his last four wins. Morono has the power and grappling to record early finishes but sees most of his fights go to a decision. This fight should be close, but if Morono avoids the knockout, I expect him to take a close decision.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Morono
Joe Pyfer (11-2-0) v. Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-5-0)
Joe Pyfer - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Abdul Razak Alhassan - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Pyfer gets another step up in competition, but it should not be anything he cannot handle. Alhassan has scary power and is always a threat to end the fight early. However, Pyfer will have the edge everywhere and should handle the challenge. I expect the prospect to continue his rise and record another early finish, making him one of the best plays for DFS.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Pyfer
Grant Dawson (20-1-1) v. Bobby Green (30-14-1)
Grant Dawson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
Bobby Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 30 wins
DFS Perspective: While Green is still entertaining at this stage in his career, he has noticeably declined in some areas. However, he is coming off an impressive win in which he submitted Tony Ferguson in Round 3. Dawson continued his winning ways, winning his third in a row, and still has yet to lose in the UFC. The striking will likely be close, but I expect Dawson to get right to his strengths, recording takedowns early and keeping control on the mat. Dawson will likely shatter value and be one of the highest-owned fighters on the slate.
UFC Vegas 80 Pick: Dawson
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 80 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
