The circumstances may not be ideal, but UFC 294 comes complete with two spectacular bouts to round out a 13-fight card. We'll cover each fight across four platforms, including both underdogs competing in the aforementioned contests, and a newcomer set to take on the UFC's resident whirling dervish. Our betting line this week was taken from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Kamaru Usman ($7,300)
Conflicting reports regarding what may have been said during a workout aside, I feel compelled to take a shot on Usman at this price. To be sure, taking a fight on short notice that requires him to fly to the other side of the world is not an ideal circumstance, but it's also true that Khamzat Chimaev has not stepped into a cage in over a year, and needed every ounce of resolve he could muster to beat an opponent he could not out-grapple in Gilbert Burns. Our worst fear is the injury is not only real, but so severe Usman cannot fight with it, but in any other context, this is a matchup I can't pick in the other direction until I see Chimaev win it.
Anshul Jubli ($9,300)
I have my concerns that Jubli is so grapple-dependent that he won't be able to adjust if faced with significant resistance, but Mike Breeden stands so square in the pocket that the Indian fighter should have no problem getting to his hips. Once the two are on the ground, the difference in grappling ability will be so stark that the fight can only go in one direction. While Breeden's pressure and power could make things interesting in the early going, staying on his feet for any length of time should prove to be a challenge.
Abu Azaitar ($7,800)
As far as I'm concerned, Sedriques Dumas has yet to notch a legitimate UFC win. That may seem harsh coming off his victory against Cody Brundage, but the Brundage we've seen over the last year or so is a man who seems to want to end the fight as early as possible or quit, as evidenced by the fact that he routinely jumped for guillotines against the kickboxer and threw himself out of position. We haven't seen Azaitar in over two years, but he did everything he could to win against Marc-Andre Barriault, landing 108 significant strikes over three rounds. Azaitar didn't have much concern when wrestling with another kickboxer in Vitor Miranda and should be able to use his grappling when necessary.
Javid Basharat ($9,400)
Victor Henry came out of nowhere to pick up a win in his UFC debut against Raoni Barcelos, and while he will come into this fight with an impressive 79 percent takedown defense rate, much of that has been padded by his win over Tony Gravely, as a non-wrestler in Raphael Assuncao was able to ground him twice in five attempts. Basharat combines relentless pressure with precise strikes and takedowns when available, which should ultimately leave Henry overwhelmed.
Muhammad Mokaev ($9,600)
At first blush, this may look like a great price for a fighter in Tim Elliott who is going to get the exact type of fight he wants, but it's not as though we haven't seen the UFC veteran out-grappled before, as submission losses to Brandon Royval and Deiveson Figueiredo have come within the past few years. The issue seems to be that Elliott can keep up with his opponent for a while but has too much confidence that he will win in any scramble, which ultimately results in disappointment. What makes this fight more interesting than the price is we have seen Mokaev nearly succumb to the same fate, as this will be his first fight since having his knee torn apart in a win over Jafel Filho in March. The condition of Mokaev's knee will be something to watch, but assuming he hasn't returned too quickly, he should be able to put up a ton of points with a grappling display here.
Magomed Ankalaev ($9,100)
Johnny Walker has looked a bit better in recent fights, but he has still never beaten a calculating, precise fighter like Ankalaev, as even wins over Paul Craig and Ion Cutelaba were the result of big explosions or wild scrambles. A fighter like Ankalaev won't give an opponent anything to work with, keeping himself safe defensively while taking the path of least resistance. It is for that reason that I think of Ankalaev as more of a cash play here, as I expect him to just grind Walker out with wrestling, but the chance of a knockout still exists, as the Brazilian fighter is bound to offer a big target due to the way he generates offense.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Viktoriia Dudakova OVER 33.5 Significant Strikes, Nathaniel Wood Under 87.5 Strikes, and Said Nurmagomedov Under 40.5 Significant Strikes
Dudakova's line seems like the result of an algorithm that noticed her UFC debut ended inside of a minute but failed to consider that the result happened due to an injury to her opponent. While one could argue the takedown she landed aided in that process, Jinh Yu Frey is tough and has always been difficult to ground, as we can see from the 89 percent takedown defense rate she has logged in the UFC. I expect Dudakova to get stuffed on enough attempts that she will be forced to brawl in the pocket, which will easily send us past this total.
Nathaniel Wood is a high-volume striker, but Muhammad should look to grapple at every opportunity to try and stem the onslaught. This will likely result in time spent in 50/50 positions against the fence, and Wood has never been afraid to wrestle if that's the type of fight his opponent wants. The constant close-quarters action will lead to a depressed strike total that may not even remotely approach the total here.
The dynamic is similar for Nurmagomedov's bout against Muin Gafurov, who has a grand total of 18 takedown attempts between his UFC debut and appearance on the Contender Series. When we consider that Nurmagomedov is not exactly a high-volume striker (3.54 strikes landed per minute) the most likely outcome is a slow-moving bout in which the two are either trading single shots from range or involved in a grappling exchange.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Mohammad Yahya – 1.9X Multiplier
I have made peace with the fact that I will never pick Trevor Peek to win a UFC fight. It's not as though the organization doesn't occasionally bring in wild, unstructured fighters, but they very seldom hang around for more than one or two fights. It should also be noted that when I say Peek is wild, I mean that I'm not sure how often he has his eyes on his target while throwing. He will frequently do bizarre things like throw hammer fists at boxing range, which may be entertaining, but certainly isn't a recipe for victory. Having said all of that, I am slightly worried about Yahya, who tends to start slow and is available to be hit. Still, he throws crisp shots and will grapple often enough to keep Peek on notice.
Bruno Silva - 2.05 X Multiplier
On the surface, Silva's bout with Sharaputdin Magomedov looks like a battle between two wild strikers. While both are certainly aggressive, Silva will be the one marching forward and throwing straight shots as the debutante tries to spin his way to victory. I will take the fighter who opts for the more direct approach against someone looking for the home run swing, as he will end up using a lot of energy if he is unable to get Silva out of the bout early.
Alexander Volkanovski – 2.05 X Multiplier
While it's not correct to say that Islam Makhachev had no success on the feet in their first bout, I don't think it's too controversial to say the Dagestani fighter ultimately got the win due to grappling control, during which time he didn't get much done against the featherweight champion. It should also be noted that Makhachev got hurt and spent the majority of the final frame on his back after having (apparently) secured the first two rounds. Short notice aside, I can't pick Makhachev to squeak by again, particularly since Volkanovski can compete with him in all the areas in which he excels.
Bets to Consider
Ikram Aliskerov wins via KO/TKO (+150)
It's not as though Warlley Alves doesn't have enough in the tank to surprise us every now and again, but his tendency to run out of gas has hurt him more and more as his career has gone on, and Aliskerov is a tough, dynamic fighter who hits hard. If he can't find the knockout blow early, I expect Alves to get swallowed up by pressure and pace, which will eventually lead to a finish.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 294 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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