The UFC's 13-fight card in Singapore is perfect for yours truly, as it features a number of oddly-lined favorites we can potentially take advantage of in search of profit. We'll cover each bout across four platforms, including a heavyweight who can drag a fight into deep waters, and a tenured veteran who finds ways to win. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jarno Errens ($7,600)
Errens made a good account of himself in his UFC debut against William Gomis but seemed unable to deal with the physical strength of such a committed grappler. He shouldn't have that problem with Seungwoo Choi, who has shown the ability to wrestle but would much rather brawl in the pocket. This tendency led to a comprehensive defeat at the hands of Mike Trizano, and Evans will put the pressure on his musclebound opponent from the opening bell while mixing in his own wrestling for good measure.
Na Liang ($6,800)
Liang may be the ultimate high-floor selection, as her strategy entails trying to take her opponent down and outpace them in scrambles for the duration of the contest. JJ Aldrich may have a serviceable 70 percent takedown defense rate, but it's worth noting she was grounded twice by lifelong kickboxer Ariane Lipski in her last fight. Aldrich is a boxer without much power, which should give Na frequent chances to get this bout where she needs it to be.
Garrett Armfield ($8,700)
Armfield looks like a decent grappler who can put pressure on his opponents, with the only real issue being that he ran into an underrated fighter in David Onama during his UFC debut. His sophomore effort will pit him against Toshiomi Kazama, who swings wildly in the pocket looking for finishes. This should allow Armfield to hit reactive takedowns and wear on his opponent while hunting for submissions.
Parker Porter ($7,600)
Junior Tafa is aggressive and hits hard, but I'm not sure why that's enough to anoint him a sizeable favorite against a UFC veteran with 22 professional fights. Porter has fast hands in his own right, and while he certainly isn't a wrestler on par with Mohammed Usman, the fact that Tafa was controlled on the ground by "The Motor" for over 12 minutes of their 15-minute bout tells me that his getup game is virtually nonexistent. This should mean Porter will be able to bleed valuable minutes off the clock, as well.
Erin Blanchfield ($8,500)
This one should be exciting for as long as it lasts, but Blanchfield's jiujitsu has looked unstoppable to this point, and she is improving her skills as a boxer on a continual basis. Talia Santos' frame and athleticism could present problems for "coldblooded" early, but I expect her to find a way past the range and secure the clinch before long. From a salary perspective, it's unlikely that you will see a fighter as talented as Blanchfield listed below $9,000 very often.
Ryan Spann ($8,300)
Spann can be a frustrating fighter to scout, as just when it looks like he's putting his skills together, he takes a step back. That was the case in "Superman's" most recent outing against Nikita Krylov, in which he exhausted himself against a fighter who has made a career out of outlasting opponents in grueling ground wars. He has a much more forgiving opponent in front of him here, as Anthony Smith seems incredibly shopworn at this point in his career. Smith shouldn't be able to deal with Spann's power or grappling prowess, which makes me think the 32-year-old gets a finish before he gets tired.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Yusaku Kinoshita UNDER 9.75 minutes of fight time, Rolando Bedoya UNDER 11 Minutes of Fight Time, and Michal Oleksiejczuk OVER 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Kinoshita strikes me as a kill-or-be-killed fighter in the style of his countryman, Takashi Sato. Both men like to pour on the pressure and have tremendous power, but both also keep their hands incredibly low, which contributed to Kinoshita's knockout loss to Adam Fugitt in his UFC debut. Billy Goff has never been afraid to exchange in the pocket, which makes it a safe bet that this fight ends inside of the second round.
With only seven finishes among his 14 wins, Bedoya isn't known for his short nights at the office, but Song Kenan is a bit of a glass cannon inside the cage, as seven of his last nine bouts have ended via finish. As I can't trust Song to put himself in a safe position, the play here is that someone gets finished within the first two frames.
Oleksiejczuk and Chidi Njokuani may rightly be viewed as knockout artists, but Njokuani has a tendency to start slowly, which could lead to a bit of a starting match if "Lord" can't find a way to negotiate past a six-inch reach disadvantage. While both have highlight-reel potential, I'm comfortable betting that this fight gets deep into Round 2 as both men look to find their shots.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Alex Caceres - 2.1 X Multiplier
It goes without saying that Giga Chikadze will be the better technical striker in this matchup, but it's been almost two years since his loss to Calvin Kattar, in which he appeared to run out of steam near the end of the second round. By contrast, Caceres went through a war to defeat Daniel Pineda in June and should be able to further sap the gas tank of the former kickboxing star with his grappling ability. "Bruce Leeroy" has been incredibly difficult to put away in his professional MMA career, and I can't trust a (likely) rusty Chikadze to get the job done before his cardio once again becomes an issue.
Lukasz Brzeski – 2.2 X Multiplier
If you're like me, you sometimes find yourself wondering why Waldo Cortes-Acosta has been made such a big favorite in two of his three UFC bouts. The former Cincinnati Reds prospect is powerful and athletic but seems to lack any real technique, as he frequently seems to get angry and start winging big shots. Brzeski showed in his fight with Martin Buday that he can handle a 15-minute grind, something I'm not sure Cortes-Acosta is ready for at this point in his career.
Bets to Consider
Max Holloway wins via KO/TKO (-115)
I'm actually a bit more bullish on Chan Sung Jung's chances here than the oddsmakers, but that's a low bar when the favorite comes in at (-850). In all likelihood, The Korean Zombie has sustained far too much damage to survive against the avalanche of offense that is Holloway for 25 minutes. There is a small part of me that thinks this fight may look like the second Dustin Poirier fight with "Blessed," where his power was enough to override the volume, but the durability is too big of a question mark to make that pick here.
Rinya Nakamura wins via KO/TKO (-140)
Nakamura's knockout win over the aforementioned Toshiomi Kazama was impressive, as Nakamura never lost his composure in the face of an opponent who was constantly bearing down. While Fernie Garcia won't be quite as reckless, I don't expect him to be able to take this bout to the floor, which should result in him melting due to the Japanese fighter's pace, pressure, and power.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Singapore Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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