Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
The UFC returns to the Apex for another 12-fight card from which we can potentially profit. We'll break down every fight on the slate, including a late replacement who has shown potential, and a wrestler who will look to continue his charge to title contention. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Anthony Hernandez ($8,700)
Roman Dolidze is a wizard with leg locks, and Hernandez wants nothing more than to break his opponents on the ground. This presents an interesting dynamic, as "Fluffy" and his counterpart both want to fight in the same place. However, Hernandez is the more athletic fighter here and will pour on the pressure and volume from the opening bell. Dolidze is powerful enough to end any fight with one punch, but his general passivity and tendency to fade late in fights make this Hernandez's fight to lose. I expect him to grind down the Georgian fighter and potentially get a late finish. This would put Hernandez on an eight-fight win streak, well on his way to a middleweight title fight. As explained in my UFC Futures article, I will be backing the 31-year-old all the way to gold.
Gabriella Fernandes ($8,800)
Julija Stoliarenko is a throwback to a style that is unlikely to work against top competition in modern MMA. While she does well to force tie-ups and grappling exchanges, today's fighters are often well-rounded enough to compete on the ground, leaving her with no real path to victory. This is the case with Fernandes, who is not only good everywhere but also strong in the clinch. Unless Stoliarenko can catch a limb while scrambling, I expect Fernandes to have her way in this matchup, racking up strikes and control time.
Joselyne Edwards ($8,600)
You may begin to notice a pattern with this fight card, as favorites have the tools to dominate everywhere, while underdogs are largely specialists with one tool they can use to potentially claim victory. Priscilia Cachoeira's tool is power, with eight of her 13 victories coming via KO/TKO. While Edwards does tend to stand tall in the pocket, her ability to keep range and a five-inch reach advantage should keep her safe from the hammers of "Zombie Girl. Edwards has been leaning on her wrestling lately, and Cachioeira holds just a 65 percent takedown defense rate, which will allow "La Pantera" to press a grappling advantage.
Jean Matsumoto ($8,500)
As a physically strong wrestler with power in his hands, Miles Johns has forced opponents to fight at his pace, leading to uneventful scraps. Matsumoto may buck this trend, as he is athletic, powerful, and lands over five strikes per minute in the Octagon. Johns has always had excellent takedown defense, but that may be showing cracks as well, as Felipe Lima grounded him twice during a win in December. I think Matsumoto wins this fight everywhere it goes and may get his hand raised on work rate alone.
Christian Rodriguez ($8,400)
Andre Fili has been made to look uncomfortable in fights where he cannot find the space to work his kicking game. As the shorter fighter, Rodriguez will look to pressure Fili early and land short strikes in the clinch before working his trips and takedowns. "Touchy" is a veteran who can do a bit of everything, but I can't recall the last time he won a fight where his opponent forced him to have a sloppy battle in the clinch.
Toshiomi Kazama ($6,900)
Those looking for a high-upside, low-cost play may want to check out Kazama, who is going to march across the cage and try to clinch with Elijah Smith for as long as this fight lasts. Lack of defense has been a major issue for the Japanese fighter, as he has been knocked out in two of his three UFC fights, and was knocked down before submitting Charalampos Grigoriou last August. Smith has the fast hands and power to continue this streak, but he is content to hang back and counter-punch, which could allow Kazama to get in on his hips. While he's certainly not an option in cash games, it may be worth seeing how Smith reacts when a strong grappler bears down on him.
Cody Brundage ($8,200)
Newcomer Eric McConico is a grappler by trade, but I expect the physicality of Brundage to be too much here. While he has fallen in love with his hands in recent fights, Brundage came into the organization as an active wrestler and should be able to take McConico off his feet and dominate in top position.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Eryk Anders UNDER 48.5 Significant Strikes, Julius Walker OVER 23.5 Significant Strikes, and Angela Hill UNDER 70.5 Significant Strikes
Anders has embraced his inner wrestler in the second half of his UFC career, notching 10 takedowns in his last five fights. "Ya Boi" will likely want to close distance as quickly as possible against Christian Leroy Duncan, who is fast, hits hard, and will enter this fight with a four-inch reach advantage. Anders will be aware of the dangers that await him at range, which should help to keep this total low.
Raffael Cerqueira's suspect chin will get a bit of a break against Walker, who spends the majority of his fights trying to bring opponents to the ground. I expect this bout to reach past the first round as a result, with Walker landing shots at close range before grabbing for a leg.
It's hard to overstate how far Hill's grappling has come in the last few years. While she still succumbs to elite grapplers, "Overkill's" takedown defense rate now stands at 75 percent. She has also developed her own wrestling game, notching at least two takedowns in three of her last four fights. Iasmin Lucindo has struggled when she has been unable to get the fight to the ground, as we saw in her losses to Amanda Ribas and Yazmin Jauregui. Hill will likely spend a significant amount of time pressed against the fence in this one, which will limit her usual high-powered offense
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Uros Medic Wins via Round 1 Stoppage (+145)
Seven of Medic's eight finishes have come via first-round KO/TKO, and I expect this pattern to continue against Gilbert Urbina. While he is there to be hit, Medic features a dynamic offense that seamlessly blends punches and kicks with power. Urbina is incredibly footslow and will likely want to bring this fight to the floor, but only prolific grappler Myktybek Orolbai has grounded Medic more than once in a fight, and Urbina should meet plenty of resistance whenever he tries to close the range.
Ode Osbourne (+425)
The fact that Osbourne took this fight on a week's notice after Hyun Sung Park was migrated to last week's card plays a part in the line here. However, it may be time to start asking where Steve Erceg belongs in this division. Clearly, he is a step above the bottom rung, while not quite being at the level of fighters like Alexandre Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and Brandon Moreno. Osbourne represents a solid middle ground as a quick, powerful striker who can also work a wrestling game. It's the speed that I think will be the determining factor here, which won't allow Erceg to settle into his boxing.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 109 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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