Liking this many dogs on a short slate may be hazardous to your health, but I've lined up quite a few fighters with long odds for Saturday's 11-fight card. We'll cover all the action across four platforms, including a veteran well past his ninth life, and a braggart who tends to get the job done. Our betting lines this week come from the Rotowire MMA odds page and are accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Carlos Mota ($8,500)
A short-notice replacement didn't do Cody Durden any favors, as the LFA flyweight champion is athletic, hits hard, and has a well-rounded game. Durden generally has the wrestling advantage in his bouts, but Mota is skilled at hitting reactive takedowns on advancing opponents and applies smothering pressure in top position. While Durden's power needs to be respected, Mota should ultimately have enough tools to get the job done.
Tim Means ($7,400)
Max Griffin thrives when he can use his footwork to strike and control distance, but that will be difficult against Means, who enters this bout with a three-inch height advantage. Means was able to track down and wear on Nicolas Dalby when the two fought last year, amassing eight minutes of control time. "Dirty Bird" should be able to once again control where the fight takes place, shutting down his opponent's offense at range and in close quarters.
Chase Hooper ($9,200)
No longer the scrawny teenager who would melt trying to get his opponents to the ground, Hooper showed ferociousness against another skilled grappler in Felipe Colares, grounding the Brazillian fighter and unleashing ferocious strikes until he had nothing left. Steve Garcia is a meat-and-potatoes pressure fighter who doesn't have much regard for defense, which should allow Hooper to find clinch situations throughout the bout. Garcia won't be able to keep up with Chase on the ground, meaning this fight could be over the first time his shoulders touch the mat.
Jared Vanderaa ($7,200)
We haven't seen Vanderaa wrestle much in the Octagon, but a takedown led to a KO/TKO finish of Harry Hunsucker to punch his ticket on the Contender Series. "Mountain" would do well to return to that strategy here, as Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a former boxer with fast hands and power. While he doesn't generally opt for takedowns, Vanderaa does good work leaning on his opponents and tiring them out In the clinch, which should pay dividends here.
Jun Yong Park ($9,300)
Park will be at substantial disadvantages in height and reach against Joseph Holmes, which likely means he will need to revert back to the wrestling we saw him employ against fighters like Marc-Andre Barriault and John Phillips. "The Iron Turtle" is a lockdown grappler who is skilled at taking and keeping his opponent's back, giving him value as a cash play with potential upside for a submission victory.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
Calvin Kattar – 2.05 Multiplier
Arnold Allen's footwork, slick striking, and wrestling ability have overwhelmed opponents in the past, but we saw "almighty" get visibly tired in the third round of his bout with Sodiq Yusuff, and Kattar will pour on the pressure from the opening bell. "The Boston Finisher" will keep Allen on the back foot for the better part of 25 minutes, and is skilled enough on the ground to either get back to his feet or negate Allen's wrestling entirely.
Roman Dolidze – 2.1 X Multiplier
Say what you will about Dolidze's antics in the cage, but "The Caucasian" does excellent work in the clinch, where he smothers opponents and forces an ugly fight. This should work to sap the cardio of the muscle-bound Phil Hawes, who throws big shots on the feet while also possessing a powerful wrestling attack. Dolidze has never been knocked out in 11 professional fights and is tricky enough on the ground that he will constantly force Hawes to defend his legs. This leaves Hawes without a clear way to press his advantages, while also having to watch out for the power of Dolidze.
Andrei Arlovski – 2.35 X Multiplier
I was more than a bit surprised to see Arlovski as such a substantial underdog against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, who hits like a buzzsaw but only has about five minutes of cardio in him. The former heavyweight champion should be able to keep up with the one-time light heavyweight athletically while using his superior boxing to get ahead on the judge's scorecards. Some may be worried about Arlovski's chin, but it's worth noting that he hasn't tasted a KO/TKO loss since 2019.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Josh Fremd OVER 48.5 Significant Strikes and Dustin Jacoby OVER 49.5 Significant Strikes
Fremd's significant strike totals were stifled by the wrestling of Alexander Hernandez in his UFC debut, but I expect Gore to attempt less grappling, as he generally likes to corner opponents and throw big shots. Fremd's lanky frame should prevent Gore from getting on the inside, allowing the 28-year-old to pick him off at range.
The oddsmakers are expecting a short night at the office for either Jacoby or Khalil Rountree, but both men have been durable in their careers, recording just three KO/TKO losses in 38 combined fights. We have seen Rountree as both a glass cannon and a patient tactician, but Jacoby always seems to make his opponents fight at a slower pace. This should facilitate a longer bout.
Bets to Consider
Christian Rodriguez wins by KO/TKO (+125)
Rodriguez not only has quick, powerful hands but showed in his UFC debut against Jonathan Pearce that he can keep up with the best of grapplers in scrambles. This should leave Weems on an Island in the Octagon, as he generally likes to throw big shots before transitioning to his opponent's legs. I expect that Rodriguez will keep himself safe on the ground before handing Weems his third loss, which will all have come by knockout.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 63 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
