This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The UFC is back at the Apex for a jam-packed, 14-fight card this Saturday, culminating with two scrappy grapplers in the main event. We'll cover every bout across three platforms, including a wrestler looking to take the shine off of a Contender Series darling and a hard-throwing flyweight who will cash big if she lands. Our betting lines this week are from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate as to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Rafael Estevam ($8,200)
This bout represents a second tough matchup in a row for Charles Johnson, who was taken down a whopping 11 times by Cody Durden in April. While Estevam isn't as physically imposing as Durden, he is a better scrambler and should be able to match for cardio. Johnson's long, crisp strikes may make this fight competitive in spots, but it's hard to see anything but a truckload of points heading to the debutante in this one.
Ailin Perez ($8,600)
The strength of Stephanie Egger proved a bit too much for Perez in her UFC debut, but "Fiona" bounced back with a dominant performance against Ashlee Evans-Smith that saw her notch 10 takedowns and a whopping 12:36 of control time. Lucie Pudilova has largely been able to avoid sharing the cage with wrestlers but was taken down three times by Liz Carmouche and twice by a far less imposing figure in Sarah Moras. All of this is to say that we have seen nothing to indicate that Pudilova can stay safe against a dedicated grappler.
Jonathan Pearce ($8,400)
The athleticism and power of Joanderson Brito gave me a moment of hesitation, but the inability to get off of his back combined with a suspect gas tank led me back to the favorite here. It's worth noting that Pearce's only loss in the UFC came when Joe Lauzon caught him cold in his debut, and while that could happen here, I think that outcome has a very short window of viability. This fight could be one in which two men trade takedowns, ground position, and strikes, so a dog play is certainly understandable. However, I heavily favor Pearce to take over down the stretch.
Jordan Leavitt ($7,400)
Chase Hooper flooding the zone with offense between takedown attempts in his fight with Nick Fiore tells me that he has found his style going forward. Unfortunately, I don't think that will be enough against Leviatt, who is far more composed than a fighter like Fiore, and can use his kicks, strength, and scrambling ability to his advantage. While Hooper's approach netted him 120 DraftKings points, I still have questions regarding what happens when not everything goes to plan.
Brendan Allen ($9,400)
As much as we all like to root for Paul Craig, I don't see much for him in this matchup. Allen has never been out-grappled in the UFC and has comparable height and reach to the Scottish fighter, meaning that his upright style will force him to eat shots in the pocket. I think ground dominance or a club-and-sub finish are both likely outcomes here, making Allen a nice play over five rounds.
Nick Aguirre ($6,700)
In my mind, the conditions are perfect to take a shot on a massive underdog here. Payton Talbott looked good coming off of the Contender Series but tends to take damage due to his upright stance, and is only six fights into his professional MMA career. While it must be said that Aguirre isn't much further along, he does have a style that can be tough for someone looking to show off their skills at range. This is a test that Talbott must pass before we anoint him as a huge favorite in any matchup in the UFC.
Christian Leroy Duncan ($8,500)
Duncan's athleticism may be part of his undoing down the road, as he tends to be acrobatic at inopportune times, but that athleticism alone should be enough to beat Denis Tiuliulin, who comes in like a bull in a china shop to every fight. The path of least resistance here would be to follow in the footsteps of past opponents and take Tiuliulin down, as his chronic inability to defend on the ground has led to more than a few of his losses. If he decides to stay standing, Duncan will give his opponent a chance, but not one significant enough that we need to be worried.
Uros Medic ($8,900)
Myktybek Orolbai may have 10 finishes in 11 wins to accompany his one-loss record, but I am severely underwhelmed by his competition to this point. This is best exemplified by his last opponent, Hayward Charles, who somehow stayed competitive with the fighter from Kyrgyzstan despite routinely putting his head down and trying to bull rush to close distance. This late replacement fighter seems to have been a true last-minute find, as there is nothing I can see that tells me he's ready for a matchup with Medic, who is fast, athletic, and lethal in the cage.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Michael Morales OVER 10.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Michael Parkin OVER 10 Minutes of Fight Time, Lucas Alexander OVER 9.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Jose Johnson UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Michael Morales has dominated all three of his opponents inside the Octagon, but his inability to finish Max Griffin despite carrying what seemed like an incredible amount of momentum into the later rounds makes me wonder if he will be able to put people away on a regular basis at this level. Jake Matthews has been knocked out just once in his 25-fight career, while Morales has only one win by submission. This likely means that Matthews won't need to worry about the ground and can focus on boxing in the pocket.
When it comes to heavyweight fights, we generally either see quick knockouts or slow, grueling decisions. I am betting on the latter here, as Parkin tends to try to stay on the outside and pick his opponent off with jabs and leg kicks, while Caio Machado attempts to throw big strikes and clinch against the fence. This should lead to a slog that results in the two men trying to decide who will control the range. While this won't make for a pleasurable viewing experience, it should do wonders for our under total.
Lucas Alexander is another example of a fighter who likely won't be seeing many finishes at this level, as he generally likes to use his speed to skirt around the outside and control the fight with his length. Jeka Saragih seems to be allergic to moving his head when he throws strikes, which has led to some early finishes, but I don't expect Alexander to be effective against a fighter who isn't going to be chasing him around the cage.
At long last, we get to a fight that should finish, as Jose Johnson is an incredibly athletic and crisp striker, who ran into a superior grappler in his UFC debut. He draws Chad Anheliger this time around, who has shown himself to be incredibly hittable due to his awkward stance and penchant for brawling. I expect Johnson to have the advantage almost everywhere here, which should lead to a rather short night for the Canadian fighter.
Bets to Consider
Trey Ogden (+115)
Nikolas Motta is a kill-or-be-killed brawler who can only fight at full speed. I simply expect him to be out of sorts against Ogden, who has a knack for slowing fights to a crawl and wearing his opponents down in grappling exchanges. There will likely be long stretches of this fight where not much is happening, but that will be to our ultimate benefit, as it means Ogden has found his pace and can use his timing and entries to do enough to get the victory.
Luana Pinheiro wins via KO/TKO (+700)
The juice is well worth the squeeze on this one, as two of Amanda Ribas' three UFC losses have come due to her desire to brawl in the pocket. Pinheiro is fast and throws every shot with bad intentions, so RIbas will have to think twice before standing at range and trading with her opponent.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 82 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
ESPN BET is officially live as of November 2023. Sign up with the ESPN BET promo code ROTO for $250 in bonus bets!
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
