The UFC kicks off another long stretch of fight cards with a 13-fight slate from the Apex on Saturday, and we are here to break down each bout from DFS and betting perspectives. This week, we bet on a one-time darling to continue her losing ways and showcase two prop plays at over (+200) odds. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Thomas Petersen ($8,700)
Both Peterson and Jamal Pogues will wrestle, but only Peterson makes it his identity in the cage. Add in a physical strength advantage and a much better understanding of positional grappling, and this seems like a fairly easy pick, as Pogues' rudimentary boxing won't be enough to compensate. I expect Petersen to look to get the fight to the floor early, which could net prospective owners big points if it leads to a submission finish.
Themba Gorimbo ($9,200)
Pete Rodriguez's skill level is likely somewhere in between his knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena and his knockout victory over Mike Jackson, but the upright boxer will be without many weapons against Gorimbo, who will have a six-inch reach advantage to go along with his superior grappling. I doubt Rodriguez will get close enough to land one of his big shots before he is on his back, and it wouldn't be too surprising if a scrappy brawler like "Dead Game" doesn't have much craft on the ground.
Julija Stoliarenko ($8,200)
It's not as if my opinion of Stoliarenko as a risky submission-or-bust play completely changed after her steamrolling of Molly McCann, but she has shown much more of a willingness to fight her way to the inside and actually try to bring the fight to the floor via wrestling. Luana Carolina is a rangy fighter who can put combinations together given time and space, but I doubt Stoliarenko will afford her opponent either of these luxuries, which could mean another chaotic early finish.
Diana Belbita ($6,900)
Call it recency bias if you must, but I simply can't pick the aforementioned Molly McCann against anyone who can wrestle after watching her get absolutely taken apart by grapplers in her last two fights. Some may point to this as an exception, as it's a rematch of a fight she already won, but it's not as though Belbita performed badly in their first meeting, as she logged 98 significant strikes and a takedown in her UFC debut. Now that the blueprint is written, I expect more wrestling from Belbita, which gives her the rare quality of a safe floor in MMA DFS.
Gilbert Urbina ($9,000)
Charlie Radtke's win over Blood Diamond was so lackluster that I doubt I'll pick him against many other fighters in the division. This certainly includes Urbina, who is athletic, hits hard, and is an unrelenting grappler when the fight hits the floor. Radtke has power but is stiff and upright and will let an aggressive opponent dictate terms. This makes him a particularly bad play against someone as explosive as "The RGV Bad Boy."
Aliaskhab Khizriev ($8,400)
Khizriev looked so awkward and uncomfortable in the face of heat from Denis Tiuliulin that I gave serious thought to picking a far crisper striker with better takedown defense in Makhmud Muradov. The tipping point for me is what happens when Muradov gets to the ground, as a beaten-up Gerald Meerschaert was able to submit him without much issue, and Caio Borralho accrued 5:32 of control time when the two fought in October. I will still have some investment in Makhmud, but the price is too good to pass on this style matchup.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Marquel Mederos OVER 66.5 Significant Strikes, Jeong Yeong Lee UNDER 43.5 Significant Strikes, and Natalia Silva OVER 75.5 Significant Strikes
This first line seems like a gimmie, as Mederos and Landon Quinones are both incredibly active strikers who will throw volume and generally like to keep the fight standing. It's worth noting that they are also dedicated finishers, but it must be said that neither has been knocked out in their MMA career. This should lead to a wild war between two game opponents that flies over the given total.
Lee prefers to fight his opponents in space, but Blake Bilder simply will not let that happen. Even when it was clear he was being outmuscled by Kyle Nelson, Bilder continued to force grappling exchanges throughout, leading to a loss. I expect that Bilder will force the kind of fight he thinks he wants, even if it will ultimately be unproductive.
Silva and Viviane Araujo are two more high-volume strikers who will look to stand in the center of the Octagon. While the takedown threat is a bit more pronounced on both sites, takedown defenses of 92 percent and 77 percent, respectively, should ensure that this one stays upright for the better part of 15 minutes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Nassourdine Imavov OVER 15.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Randy Brown OVER 14.75 Minutes of Fight Time
Similar to Mederos and Quinones above, Imavov vs. Roman Dolidze is the story of two finishers who tend to see the final bell, as they have one submission loss between them in 28 professional fights. While Dolidze's takedown defense rate stands at just 33 percent, there is little chance that Imavov will want to tangle with him on the ground. Instead, the French fighter will likely worry about keeping himself upright, which should lead to a lot of time spent up against the cage in the clinch.
Few fighters can slow bouts down like Muslim Salikhov, who loves to lull fighters to sleep from range before exploding with spinning attacks. The problem here is that Brown will command a whopping eight-inch reach advantage, which should leave "The King of Kung Fu" wondering how to close the distance. I expect that this bout will be a boring starring match when it isn't a boring clinch battle, which will result in a decision.
Bets to Consider
Drew Dober wins via KO/TKO (+230)
The Renato Moicano submission prop will almost certainly be a more popular play here, as four of Dober's six UFC losses have come via submission, but Moicano tends to stand square to his opponents and can be frozen by big shots. Chan Sung Jung, Rafael Fiziev, and Jose Aldo are all testimants to that. Dober is one of the most dangerous finishers in the division, and I question whether Moicano will go to his wrestling early enough to avoid eating a fight-altering shot.
Charles Johnson wins via decision (+300)
I've picked against Johnson in each of his last two fights, but I feel the pendulum has swung a bit too far due to the presence of an undefeated challenger. Azat Maksum is a solid boxer with a nice jab, but I saw nothing in his debut win over Tyson Nam that tells me he will be able to deal with a far more active and athletic opponent who can cut off the cage. Strong wrestlers have been a major stumbling block for Johnson to this point, but I don't think Maksum has the prowess or intensity to get ahead with his grappling on the scorecards.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 85 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
ESPN BET is officially live as of November 2023. Sign up with the ESPN BET promo code ROTO for $250 in bonus bets!
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
