Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the AL West

Over the past five weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. Now, the world has been turned upside down with the threat of COVID-19, and the 2020 baseball season has been put on hold. That said, hopefully the virus will soon pass, and our national pastime can safely resume. This sixth segment features a look at the American League West. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you are prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff when baseball returns for the 2020 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the:

American League West

Houston Astros – You can't wave goodbye to Gerrit Cole and not miss him, but the Astros have a couple veteran starters, a few young guys with upside, and they all have the luxury of pitching in front of an exceptionally potent offense. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke have been winning games for years, and, despite a few gray hairs, they will probably do it again in 2020. Verlander is recovering from a lat strain, so he could actually benefit from the delay in the season. At age 37, he still pitches like he's 10 years younger. He's not done yet. Greinke remains a bit less appealing to me. Don't get me wrong, he's still a top-of-the-rotation starter, but his strikeout rate is declining, and his fastball only occasionally touches 90 mph these days. Beyond the top pair, the rotation looks a little different. I really like Lance McCullers, but he missed all of last year (Tommy John surgery), and durability has never been prominent on his resume. They will surely keep his workload in check, so he's a solid pitcher with reduced value based on an anticipated innings limit. They will be followed by a couple highly regarded young arms. Josh James has all the tools, but he hasn't displayed the necessary consistency with his secondary stuff – yet. It's coming, but there is risk here. Jose Urquidy should also have a spot, and he can be productive. He has good (not great) stuff, but he throws it for strikes, and that's half the battle. James has the higher ceiling, but Urquidy is probably the safer play right now. Brad Peacock will be in the bullpen where he is better off, and Framber Valdez likely will join him there. He's the only lefty in the group and I think his future could be in the rotation, but he needs better command and more consistent secondary stuff to truly take the next step. And, it gets even better. Forrest Whitley actually has a Verlanderish ceiling, but he's still learning the trade and probably won't arrive until late this season. He's got it all. Big arm, lively fastball, very good slider and curve, and the real gem, an exceptional change. He could help late this season, and you seriously want him in keeper/dynasty formats.

The Astros also have a pretty deep bullpen lead by closer Roberto Osuna. I expect him to be near the top of the list in the saves category. He'll be supported by a capable cast of Ryan Pressly and, Joe Smith, both very experienced and capable bridge-builders. Valdez and Peacock will also be key contributors and, I haven't forgotten potential long man Chris Devenski who just needs to cut down on the long balls.

Recapping the Astros:

The arm to own: Justin Verlander until he shows us he is getting older.

He'll likely be overpriced: I don't believe Zack Greinke is as safe for the price.

Best of the bullpen: If he remains healthy, Roberto Osuna gets the ninth.

Los Angeles Angels – Every year there seems to be a team that defies predictability, and this season the Angels are it. Their No. 1 starter, without question, is Shohei Ohtani, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He won't pitch until May – if then, depending on the COVID-19 situation – and when he does start pitching, reports are he will be limited to one start per week. If he is all the way back, he's potentially a top 10 starter, but that's a big if, and the limited starts hurt his value in leagues with weekly lineup changes. Of course, they will be able to keep his bat in the lineup, but probably only three to four days a week. That leaves the heavy workload to a trio of relatively consistent underperformers. Andrew Heaney flashes some pretty good stuff at times, but he has dealt with chronic health issues, and he can toss some pretty miserable starts into the mix when he's not clicking. Can he get and stay healthy long term? And then, two interesting arms have recently joined the Angels' staff. Dylan Bundy is a poster child for not performing to his skill set. That was with Baltimore, making him a prime candidate for the changes in latitudes angle. Julio Teheran can also be pretty good in spurts, but he shares space on the underperformer poster with Bundy. Can the Angels unlock the secrets to one or both? The next spot will hopefully belong to a decent prospect, but Griffin Canning is suffering from elbow issues that put his availability in doubt, at least until midseason, and that might be a best-case scenario. Another question mark. Matt Andriese is the most likely placeholder. Other options include Patrick Sandoval, Felix Pena and maybe Jaime Barria, but none of them are what I would consider viable options for a fantasy rotation. Drafting an Angels' starter is not for the faint of heart. Maybe you'll get lucky, but a contingency plan is a good idea.

I'll admit, I still see Hansel Robles as a pretty solid set-up guy, but he did a decent job as their closer last year, and he'll be in that role again, at least to begin the season. Hey, that's me. He's likely to be on a fairly long leash and will generally get the ball in the ninth inning, but there are options lurking in the shadows. The guy I really like in their pen is Ty Buttrey. He impressed two years ago, but disappointed me last season. And, Keynan Middleton looked like he might be their closer before blowing out his elbow. If Robles stumbles, the guy who's the best of those two would likely get an audition. A dark horse candidate is Justin Anderson.  He has the best stuff in their pen, but he has to learn to throw strikes before he'll be entrusted with high leverage innings.

Recapping the Angels:

The arm to own: Shohei Ohtani has the highest ceiling by far, but …

He'll likely be overpriced: Andrew Heaney needs to prove he can get and stay healthy.

Best of the bullpen: I'd like to say Ty Buttrey, but Hansel Robles is the guy today.

Oakland A's – If watching talented young pitchers is your thing, and who can deny those joys, then you should plan on catching some A's games this season. They have a very nice collection of starting pitchers, led by Sean Manaea. He had shoulder surgery after the 2018 season, and was expected to miss all of 2019, but he came back quicker than expected, and looked very good. Shoulders are always scary, but if he stays healthy he is high on my list to take another step forward. I have also been touting Frankie Montas. He caught my eye in 2018, and was on his way to a big year last season before being handed a suspension that cost him virtually the entire second half. I expect him to pick up right where he left off. Next in line is young lefty Jesus Luzardo. He has a live arm, and a well-developed change, which sets him apart. His third pitch is coming, and if he gets that down, the sky's the limit for this guy. A.J. Puk is next up, and while he has recovered from 2018 Tommy John surgery, he recently suffered a shoulder strain, which has cost him time this spring. The delayed start to the season should help him in his recovery. Puk is also a highly regarded prospect, albeit probably just a notch behind Luzardo. The "old man" of the staff at age 34 is Mike Fiers. He's really more of a journeyman, but his rather pedestrian stuff plays up a bit in pitcher-friendly Oakland, so he could be of some use in deeper leagues. There is a lot of talent in that rotation, but not a lot of depth, so they need to stay healthy. Projected swingman (really his ideal role) Chris Bassitt will probably see some starts if Puk isn't ready when the season begins, and Daniel Mengden could also fill in at times when he returns from an elbow injury around mid-season, but neither is a strong fantasy option.

The A's have a bullpen full of veterans who are filling their roles quite nicely. Their closer is now Liam Hendriks, and I like him in that spot. He certainly staked his claim to the gig last season and displays the mound presence to be successful. Joakim Soria logged a lot of saves for my fantasy teams back in his prime, but that was then. He's a set-up guy now and he is a solid caddy for Hendricks. Yusmeiro Petit and Lou Trivino give them a lot of flexibility, including the potential for multiple innings when needed, while Jake Diekman and T.J. McFarland handle things from the left side.

Recapping the A's:

The arm to own: There are several, but Sean Manaea looks ready to step it up.

He'll likely be overpriced: Mike Fiers is really only a good play in deeper leagues.

Best of the bullpen: Liam Hendriks has impressed me in his role as a closer.

Seattle Mariners – The Mariners are another of those teams with a lot to prove heading into the 2019 season. Marco Gonzales will be at the top of the rotation with longtime ace Felix Hernandez gone, but he's not a No. 1.  Since developing a cutter, Gonzales is doing a better job of handling righty swingers, but his command of a pretty pedestrian repertoire still comes and goes. He is marginally useful in deeper leagues, but don't overpay. I expected much better from Yusei Kikuchi in his first year after coming over to the M's. He put together some quality years in Japan, including a sparkling year in 2016, so there was reason for optimism. It didn't happen – at least not consistently. He is reportedly adding a changeup this season, which should help quite a bit. Following the first pair, the team added former top prospect Taijuan Walker, and his former prospect status might give him the highest ceiling in the rotation. Unfortunately, that was a long time ago, and he has logged just 14 innings over the past two seasons. That's very high risk for realistic reward expectations. Justus Sheffield got a shot at a starting role later in the season. He has some upside, but he clearly wasn't ready with generally erratic command. It's a case of learning on the job, but that's not a ringing fantasy endorsement. Right now the fifth spot looks like the domain of fringy (that's generous) guys like Kendall Graveman, Wei-Yin Chen, or maybe Erik Swanson. I suppose I like Chen slightly better than the others, but I'll pass on all three.

The bullpen probably has more to prove than the rotation. Matt Magill ended the season as the team's closer, but he is miscast in that role. A marginally better bet might be newcomer Yoshihisa Hirano. He was deployed as a set-up man in Arizona, but he has some time as a successful closer in Japan on his resume. They'll likely be preceded in games by a pair of intriguing young arms. Dan Altavilla and Carl Edwards Jr. both have dynamic arms with potential closer stuff, but neither has any consistent idea about where the next pitch will end up. If healthy, the reasonably reliable Sam Tuivailala figures to get a lot of innings, but overall, this is a thin bullpen.

Recapping the Mariners:

The arm to own: I'm inclined to give Yusei Kikuchi a very guarded 2019 mulligan.

He'll likely be overpriced: Marco Gonzales is a No. 4 in No. 1 clothes.

Best of the bullpen: When it shakes out, I think Yoshihisa Hirano grabs the gig.

Texas Rangers – We conclude our assessment of preseason pitching with the Texas Rangers. They will enter the season with a new look rotation, including the addition of perennial ace, Corey Kluber. The question is, does Kluber still have it? After five 200-plus innings stellar seasons, he fell on hard times last year. Yes, he was limited to just seven starts, first with a broken arm, then with an oblique strain, but he wasn't pitching well before the injuries. I do think he'll bounce back, but a Cy Young contender might be too optimistic. Mike Minor has gone from a struggling, back-of-the-rotation starter, to being a pretty successful reliever, and then back to a rotation spot where he put it all together. I think we saw a good representation of Minor's ability last year, and if the new park proves to be more pitcher-friendly, his numbers, as well as those of all Rangers' pitchers, could even improve a bit. Maybe I should be easier on Lance Lynn. He's never been a favorite of mine, because while he does occasionally string together a few solid starts, when he melts down, his results can be horrific. He was better last year, but I remain leery. They also added Kyle Gibson, but his average stuff can be a little too hittable, making him more of an innings eater, and Jordan Lyles, who fits nicely as a fifth starter for them, but has limited value in fantasy circles. They will all need to stay healthy, because lack of rotation depth is a concern. If they need a spot starter, Jonathan Hernandez or Joe Palumbo would get the ball, but they are weak options. Maybe there's at least some help on the way. Yohander Mendez is not a great prospect and he's battling a shoulder strain, so he probably won't be back until at least June. Unfortunately, their best pitching prospects, Hans Crouse and Cole Winn, are still at least a year or two from being ready.

I still think closer Jose Leclerc is a bright spot in this bullpen. I was high on him when it was apparent the Rangers needed a new endgamer a couple years ago, and I continued to see a lot to like when he struggled last year. His stuff is more than good enough, he just needs to believe that. The other name to know here is Rafael Montero. I love his stuff, and he appears to be really maturing on the mound. He's a key piece in the puzzle. Others being counted upon in what is a thin pen beyond the top two, include Luke Farrell, Brett Martin, Jesse Chavez and maybe veteran Juan Nicasio. Unfortunately, none of those guys stand out, so it could be a game of musical chairs, playing the hot hand in an attempt to bridge from the starters to the late inning guys.

Recapping the Rangers:

The arm to own: Mike Minor might actually take a modest step forward.

He'll likely be overpriced: I just don't have faith in Lance Lynn.

Best of the bullpen: Jose Leclerc has the tools to be a top tier closer.

Next week, the tentative plan is to jump into an expanded view of the Endgame Odyssey with an eye for potential fantasy value. Stay well my friends!