The Z Files: Last Minute Draft and FAAB Advice

Are we there yet?

July has been akin to the one-hour car ride to the amusement park seemingly taking all day.

Of course, if the backseat siblings don't stop misbehaving, there's a chance, "I'll turn this car around and we'll go back home."

Here's hoping the kids do what they're told and we play some ball.

Apologies if the following is too late for your drafts or early FAAB/waiver periods, but some of it can still be actionable via in-season roster management.

Stolen bases and the 60-game schedule

With the imbalanced, regional schedule, there will be clubs facing aggregate batteries better or worse than average at nabbing would-be base stealers. Adept pilferers will get their bags regardless, but the information could help at the fringes, especially since every swipe will be magnified in the impending sprint.

Gauging the ability to run on another team isn't an exact science, as some of the data double-counts attempts, not to mention some of the more prolific stolen base artists skew the numbers against the teams they face. Still, it's worth knowing what potential thieves are up against.

The methodology is as follows. Using 2019 stolen base data, I projected the number of steals and caught stealing for catchers and pitchers. Then, based on the 60 opponents for each of the 30 MLB teams, a pitcher and catcher index was determined with 100 representing the average. Anything over 100 is beneficial for stealing while under 100 is detrimental.

Talk about East Coast bias, there's a definite regional tilt to the results. The primary reason the Phillies are so far ahead of the pack is they won't be challenged by J.T. Realmuto, author of an impressive 43 captures in 92 tries, for a 46.7% success rate (league average is 26.7%).

The data is encouraging for Bryce Harper, Austin Meadows, Jonathan Villar, Jon Berti, Andrew Benintendi, Alex Verdugo, Trea Turner, Victor Robles and Michael Taylor. Taylor is particularly intriguing if he picks up early playing time while Robles gets up to speed, pun intended.

The teams at the bottom of the list are hurt by the data, but don't drop established stealers like Adalberto Mondesi. On the other hand, don't go overboard expecting youngsters like Keston Hiura and Nick Senzel to run wild.

Now let's look at the numbers for individual teams. Batteries with an index above 100 are favorable to target for steals while avoiding those below 100.

The Mets data doesn't include Noah Syndergaard, but Thor's issues with steals are still reflected in the poor catcher score.

The Brewers are intriguing since they lost Yasmani Grandal and his respectable 27% success rate and replacing it with Omar Narvaez and his poor 18% mark.

Boston pitchers should benefit with Christian Vazquez and his exception 38% success rate behind the plate a bit more, replacing Sandy Leon and his mediocre 21% clip. Plus, Jonathan Lucroy and Kevin Plawecki were both more efficient than Leon last season.

Using the preceding table will be beneficial in DFS as well as for those in leagues looking to add steals to your lineup on a weekly basis. Veteran readers know stolen base potential is one of the factors ranked in my weekly hitting tables, which are normally posted Saturday morning with a special installment Wednesday before Opening Day to cover leagues with a short four day transaction period and those with an extended 11-day first period.

Drafting and FAABing to the schedule

Admittedly, this is another "now you tell me" topic for many, but with only nine weeks encompassing the season, those who favor streaming back-end hitting and pitching need to tailor their roster to the schedule from the very beginning. Fortunately, if you're reading this, you have access to the most underappreciated tool on the Internet, RotoWire's Projected Starters grid. From the lightning quick updates as news breaks to Adam Wolf's award-winning Team Notes, this page should be bookmarked and frequented often.

Here are some observations from the July portion of the schedule:

My friends Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano from mlb.com coined the term, "Pitch and Ditch" on their Fantasy 411 show. The Red Sox open at home against the Orioles, the Phillies host the Marlins and the Cardinals entertain the Pirates. Streaming the home team starter against these weak lineups is a way to get a jump on your competition. Consider drafting or picking up Martin Perez and Ryan Weber for Boston, Jake Arrieta for Philadelphia, and Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson for St. Louis.

Some intriguing starters slated for a double dip the first full week include:

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks (@TEX, LAD)

Sean Newcomb and Kyle Wright, Braves (@TAM, NYM)

Asher Wojciechowski and Kohl Stewart, Orioles (@MIA, TAM)

Brian Johnson, Red Sox (NYM, @NYY)

Alec Mills, Cubs (@CIN, PIT)

Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani, Reds (CHC, @DET)

Dylan Cease and Gio Gonzalez, White Sox (@CLE, @KC)

Jorge Lopez, Royals (@DET, CWS)

Jose Urena and Elieser Hernandez, Marlins (BAL, WAS)

Brett Anderson, Brewers (@PIT, STL)

Chris Bassitt, Athletics (LAA, @SEA)

Anibal Sanchez and Austin Voth, Nationals (TOR, @MIA)

Regular readers of my pitching rankings know you can absorb a few bad outings over the course of the season and it's worth risking a potential subpar effort when paired with a favorable matchup.

When choosing back end or reserve batters, be cognizant of the Rockies, Cardinals and Rangers only having five games the week of July 27.

Good luck in any remaining drafts and throughout the season.