The Z Files: Projecting Home Runs Using Flyball Exit Velocity, Part Two

The Z Files: Projecting Home Runs Using Flyball Exit Velocity, Part Two

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Last time, I began to discuss how average exit velocity on fly balls can be used to help guess how some batters will fare in the power department in 2022. Now I'd like to discuss another set of names.

But first…

Recently, an interesting question was posed in the Rotojunkie Forum.

Why do the Rockies underperform actual HRs vs expected HRs?

Since Statcast xHR is part of the analysis at hand, I figured it would be useful to answer it here as well. The question included a link to the Rockies Statcast page with the following data:

Player

Actual HR

xHR

HR-xHR

 Trevor Story

24

37.4

-13

 C.J. Cron

28

35.1

-7

 Ryan McMahon

23

27.4

-4

 Charlie Blackmon

13

22.3

-9

 Elias Diaz

18

21.9

-4

 Garrett Hampson

11

17.6

-7

 Sam Hilliard

14

15.4

-1

 Brendan Rodgers

15

13.5

2

 Dom Nunez

10

12.5

-3

 Connor Joe

8

10.9

-3

 Joshua Fuentes

7

9.3

-2

 Raimel Tapia

6

9.1

-3

 Yonathan Daza

2

5.7

-4

 Rio Ruiz

3

2.1

1

 Chris Owings

1

2.1

-1

 Alan Trejo

1

1

0

 German Marquez

1

0.9

0

 Chi Chi Gonzalez

0

0.4

0

 Matt Adams

0

0.4

0

 Colton Welker

0

0.4

0

 Antonio Senzatela

0

0.1

0

The chart key defines xHR as Ballparks Gone At/30. This is confusing.

Think of it this way. Statcast measures each

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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