MLB Playoffs Betting Guide: 2025 World Series Picks and Pennant Bets
We're now in year four of MLB's new, expanded 12-team playoffs — nowhere near long enough to draw any statistically significant conclusions, but certainly long enough to start to notice some patterns.
After two seasons, it looked like the format was arguably too wide open, with two six seeds and one five making the World Series. Last year, though, some sense of normalcy returned, as we saw a matchup between the AL's top seed, the Yankees, and the NL's top seed, the Dodgers.
Last year was also the first time in 10 seasons that no team finished with 100 wins (excluding 2020, of course). That pattern has continued this year, with the 97-win Brewers holding the best record in the league. Will that combination of a lack of elite teams and a more wide-open playoff format lead to an October full of upsets by lower-ranked teams?
Probably, but that's typically the case for the MLB postseason, because MLB playoff series are so short compared to the length of the regular season. The NFL regular season is 17 times as long as a given playoff game, while an 82-game NBA or NHL season is 11.7 times as long as a seven-game playoff series.
Meanwhile, the MLB regular season is 54 times as long as the Wild Card Round, 32.4 times as long as the Division Series, and 23.1 times as long as the Championship Series and World Series. It's just not very difficult for an underdog to narrowly outplay a favorite over a small handful of games. While you won't see me recommending the Reds (who won just 83 games) or the Guardians (who finished with a negative run differential) in this article, it's not impossible to envision them or anyone else taking home Rob Manfred's favorite piece of metal.
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MLB Playoff Bracket
Wild Card Round
- Yankees (4) vs. Red Sox (5)
- Guardians (3) vs. Tigers (6)
- Cubs (4) vs. Padres (5)
- Dodgers (3) vs. Reds (6)
AL Wild Card Byes
- Blue Jays (1)
- Mariners (2)
NL Wild Card Byes
- Brewers (1)
- Phillies (2)
AL Division Series
- Yankees/Red Sox at Blue Jays
- Guardians/Tigers at Mariners
NL Division Series
- Cubs/Padres at Brewers
- Dodgers/Reds at Phillies
MLB Playoff Odds
In this article, I'll compare the best available NL pennant, AL pennant, and World Series odds with the projections available at FanGraphs. (Odds listed below are accurate as of writing, but you can click the links above to find out the current best odds.) Bets that the projections favor are highlighted in bold.
| Team | Best Pen Odds | Implied Prob | FG Pennant% | Best WS Odds | Implied Prob | FG WS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | +200 | 33.3% | 37.1% | +550 | 15.4% | 20.2% |
| Phillies | +225 | 30.8% | 30.8% | +450 | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| Blue Jays | +300 | 25.0% | 23.3% | +1000 | 9.1% | 10.8% |
| Dodgers | +320 | 23.8% | 26.3% | +550 | 15.4% | 15.9% |
| Brewers | +360 | 21.7% | 17.9% | +900 | 10.0% | 7.5% |
| Yankees | +400 | 20.0% | 18.0% | +850 | 10.5% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | +750 | 11.8% | 8.5% | +1500 | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| Padres | +750 | 11.8% | 12.5% | +1600 | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Red Sox | +850 | 10.5% | 8.0% | +2200 | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Tigers | +900 | 10.0% | 9.1% | +2000 | 4.8% | 3.7% |
| Guardians | +1100 | 8.3% | 4.5% | +3000 | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Reds | +1700 | 5.6% | 4.1% | +3500 | 2.8% | 1.4% |
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MLB Playoff Picks
Seattle Mariners: +200 to win AL (FanDuel), +550 to win World Series (FanDuel)
The Blue Jays may have claimed the top seed in the American League, but it's the Mariners who are favored by both the books and the projections. Some of that comes from the fact that the Blue Jays are stuck on the tougher side of the AL bracket, as they'll face either the Yankees or Red Sox in the ALDS, while the Mariners will face the Guardians or Tigers, two of the three weakest teams in the field by both record and run differential.
But it's not merely circumstances that make the Mariners a compelling pick. This is a talented, well-rounded team that deservedly claimed its first division crown since 2001, ending the Astros' run of seven division titles in eight seasons. The Mariners rank third in team wRC+ (113), while their rotation ranks third in SIERA (3.85) and their bullpen ranks eighth (3.76).
Those wanting to bet on the Mariners may want to wait for word on Bryan Woo, who posted a 2.94 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 30 starts but missed his final start of the year due to pectoral inflammation. The issue is reportedly minor, and if he's ready to go, he'll give Seattle an outstanding starting foursome alongside Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA), Luis Castillo (3.54 ERA) and George Kirby (4.21 ERA, but a 3.39 SIERA).
If those four can regularly go six or seven innings, they'll pass things off to an excellent set of high-leverage relievers, a group led by Andres Munoz and his career-best 1.73 ERA. Matt Brash, Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo all chip in with ERAs of 2.61 or better. It's a pitching staff that might not even need much help from a lineup that's been one of the best in baseball, though if the arms don't do their job, Cal Raleigh and his 60 homers might be able to slug his team to victory.
Los Angeles Dodgers: +320 to win NL (FanDuel), +550 to win World Series (FanDuel)
The biggest argument against the Dodgers is the fact that they're stuck having to play a three-game series just to enter the final eight, along with the rest of the league's elite teams. That series will come against the Reds, who barely finished above .500 this season, but the Dodgers have dropped three-game series against the 78-win Cardinals (twice), 72-win Angels (also twice, getting swept both times), 71-win Pirates and 68-win Nationals this season. It's just not very hard to lose a three-game series in baseball.
If the Dodgers do manage to get past the Reds, something the FanGraphs projections give them a 68.6 percent chance to do, they'll arguably be the favorite to win it all. The biggest problem for the defending champions this season has been injuries. Among their Opening Day rotation, only Yoshinobu Yamamoto made more than 20 starts. Tyler Glasnow made just 18, Blake Snell made just 11, while Roki Sasaki made just eight.
Now, though, the rotation is as healthy as it's been all year. The Dodgers can run out Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in some order, all of whom had ERAs of 3.19 or better, leaving Clayton Kershaw (3.36 ERA) and Emmet Sheehan (2.82 ERA) to help round out a bullpen which disappointed in the regular season. Even Sasaki, who was disastrous for most of the season, returned in late September looking like a legitimate high-leverage option out of the bullpen.
On the offensive side, the Dodgers finished with the second-best team wRC+ in the league (113), despite getting the worst season of Mookie Betts' career (104 wRC+). Ohtani (172 wRC+) was his usual dominant self, and Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+) and Max Muncy (137 wRC+) were excellent as well, and Will Smith (153 wRC+) had a career year. With Betts turning things around in September (144 wRC+), the Dodgers now have a nightmarishly deep lineup for opposing pitchers. This is a team that looks very capable of a repeat, provided they can avoid dropping two of three to the surging Reds before things really get started.
San Diego Padres: +750 to win NL (FanDuel), +1600 to win World Series (FanDuel)
Among the longer shots, the projections think the Padres have the best chance of making a run. FanGraphs favors them slightly ahead of the Cubs in the Wild Card Round, and if they manage to take two of three in Chicago, the projections also favor them to beat the Brewers, the club that's viewed most skepticially by the projections out of the four who managed to secure a bye.
Overall, the Padres were nothing special during the regular season, with their lineup ranking 13th by wRC+ (102) and their rotation ranking 16th by ERA- (101). But their roster is arguably built for the postseason and could perform better in October than they did from April to September.
First, the Padres hitters are excellent at avoiding strikeouts, with their 19.1 percent strikeout rate leading the National League. Among their top eight hitters in terms of plate appearances, only Jackson Merrill finished with a higher strikeout rate than league average (22.2 percent), and his 22.4 percent strikeout rate only trailed that mark by a fraction of a point. A lineup with no easy outs should be able to put pressure on opposing pitching staffs throughout the postseason.
On the pitching side, while the back end of the Padres' rotation was an adventure throughout the year, they should at least feel fairly comfortable in the first three games of a series, as they can hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (2.87 ERA), Michael King (3.44 ERA) and Dylan Cease (4.55 ERA, but a 3.58 SIERA).
More importantly, they have an elite bullpen, with the unit's 3.06 ERA beating every other bullpen in the league by more than a third of a run. That pen got even deeper with the addition of Mason Miller (2.63 ERA) at the deadline, who joins an absurdly deep group that includes Robert Suarez (2.97 ERA), Jason Adam (1.93 ERA), Adrian Morejon (2.08 ERA), Jeremiah Estrada (3.45 ERA) and Wandy Peralta (3.14 ERA). Opposing teams that are trailing even as early as the sixth inning will have a brutal time trying to come back against the Padres, which could be the formula to bring the first-ever World Series trophy to San Diego.
